I am happy and grateful to have been included in the Top 2% of Scientists worldwide in 2026, for the seventh consecutive year, according to the citation-based rankings compiled by Stanford University and Elsevier. In the sub-field of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, I am placed in the top 0.78 percentile globally and ranked third among Indian scientists. Another particularly gratifying aspect is that six of my research papers have now received more than 1,000 citations each. For a scientist working in India in the field of meteorology, and having spent nearly a decade in science administration as Advisor and subsequently as Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, this recognition is certainly encouraging. At the same time, I believe that citations alone cannot adequately measure the quality, relevance or societal value of scientific research. I am therefore mindful of the limitations of such rankings. I am also pleased that self-citations account for only about 11% of my citations. What gives me greater satisfaction than these numbers is the knowledge that my research findings are being used by scientists and institutions across the world, including the India Meteorological Department. Ultimately, the value of research lies not merely in how often it is cited, but in how it advances scientific understanding and contributes to society. I gratefully acknowledge the support and guidance of my mentors, the contributions of my collaborators, and the enthusiasm of my students, all of whom have been an integral part of this journey. I have always believed that science should serve society, and I hope to continue contributing to this goal through my research and other scientific endeavors. @atriauniversity

2026 Super El Niño: Preparing for the impacts ahead As correctly predicted a few months ago, a Super El Niño has now evolved over the tropical Pacific and continues to intensify. For the first time in the instrumental record, the Niño 3.4 region has reportedly exceeded 30°C, reaching a preliminary SST of 30.06°C on 5 October 2026. The event is already having major impacts in different parts of the world, including a deficient Indian monsoon, drought and forest fires over Indonesia, exceptional warmth and dryness over Australia, and severe heat-wave events in Europe, among other impacts. For India, the deficient monsoon is likely to have implications for agricultural production and water availability, particularly in regions already experiencing water stress. While the large-scale disruptions and suffering associated with this event are a matter of concern, the successful early prediction of a Super El Niño—and its potential impacts, including on the Indian monsoon—deserves recognition. Timely forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) have enabled the Government of India and various state agencies to take precautionary measures and prepare for the potential consequences. For India, however, the story does not end with the monsoon. We should expect continued influences of this strong El Niño during the coming months. The ensuing winter could be warmer than normal, followed by a potentially hot and challenging pre-monsoon season, with an increased risk of severe heat-wave events. Having managed the impacts of a deficient monsoon, we should now begin preparing for the possibility of above-normal temperatures, heat stress, increased water demand and associated health and agricultural impacts during the winter and pre-monsoon seasons. Early warning is most valuable when it leads to early action. We should use the information available now to prepare for the months ahead. @Indiametdept @moesgoi @PMOIndia @atriauniversity

New research on climate extremes over India! A new Climate Extreme Index for India reveals during the last 50 years, the area affected by climate extremes over the country has expanded by 164,368 km², highlighting a substantial increase in the overall exposure of the country to climate-related hazards We are introducing a new Climate Extreme Index, India Climate Extremes Index (IndCEI), which measures the total geographical area of the country affected by multiple climate extremes each year. By integrating different types of extremes into a single index, IndCEI provides a simple, robust, and comprehensive measure of the evolving climate risk over India. Our recent paper introducing the India Climate Extremes Index (IndCEI), a new metric for monitoring the changing footprint of climate extremes across the country is available at doi.org/10.1002/joc.70467 Our analysis shows that the all-India IndCEI has increased significantly over the past five decades, with the rise being driven primarily by the expanding spatial extent of heat stress and drought. We believe that IndCEI has considerable potential as an operational climate indicator for monitoring year-to-year changes in climate extremes, supporting climate risk assessment, adaptation planning, and policy formulation. @moesgoi @atriauniversity @moefcc

Strong El Niño Demands Planning, Not Panic. Delighted to share my commentary published in @MongabayIndia India on the emerging severe El Niño and its possible implications for the Indian monsoon. The commentary is available here: india.mongabay.com/2026/06/a… In this article, I discuss what El Niño is, how it is monitored and classified, its relationship with the Indian summer monsoon, the prospects for the 2026 monsoon season, and its potential impacts on key sectors such as agriculture and water resources. Recent climate model forecasts indicate a high probability of a very severe El Niño developing during the October–December 2026 period. Consequently, the likelihood of below-normal monsoon rainfall over India this year is considerably elevated. The economic significance of the monsoon was aptly captured by former Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in his 2011 Budget speech: “The monsoon is the real Finance Minister of India.” At the macroeconomic level, a deficient monsoon can contribute to slower GDP growth, increased fiscal burdens through drought-relief measures, higher inflation, and additional monetary policy challenges. Although the Indian economy is far more resilient today than in the past, a severe monsoon failure can still have significant repercussions for agriculture, water security, energy production, inflation, and rural livelihoods, with effects cascading across the broader economy. There is, however, no reason for panic. The priority should be to formulate and implement effective preparedness and adaptation strategies at the local level to minimize potential impacts, particularly on agriculture and water resources. While a poor monsoon cannot be prevented, its adverse consequences can certainly be mitigated through timely planning and action. I conclude by emphasizing that India today possesses substantial scientific knowledge, improved climate prediction capabilities, and enhanced observational systems. The need of the hour is to harness these capabilities effectively for preparedness, risk management, climate adaptation, and informed decision-making. @Indiametdept @moesgoi @PMOIndia @MongabayIndia @atriauniversity

2026 Monsoon Update Latest climate model predictions suggest that a severe El Niño event is developing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The warming over the central equatorial Pacific is likely to exceed 2°C above normal, indicating the possibility of a strong to severe El Niño event. In addition, abnormally warm waters are present below the ocean surface across the equatorial Pacific. This enhanced sub-surface ocean heat content is expected to further strengthen the El Niño, which is likely to peak during November–December 2026. Such a strong El Niño event could have widespread global impacts, including significant implications for the Indian summer monsoon. Not all El Niño events are associated with deficient monsoon rainfall over India. However, when the event is particularly strong, as projected this year, the probability of a below-normal or deficient monsoon increases substantially. For updated and more reliable monsoon forecasts, it is important to refer to the official forecasts of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which are expected to be released by the end of this month. In general, the adverse impact of El Niño on monsoon rainfall is observed over most parts of India, except Northeast India. During El Niño years, the frequency and duration of monsoon break periods also tend to increase. Therefore, Northeast India may experience normal to above-normal rainfall, including the possibility of a few flood events during the 2026 monsoon season. Historically, deficient monsoons have affected the Indian economy. However, today the overall economic impact may be relatively limited because the Indian economy has become more resilient to monsoon variability. Nevertheless, the agriculture and water resources sectors could still face severe adverse consequences. There is no need for panic, but this is the time to seriously formulate strategies to manage and minimise potential impacts on agriculture and water resources.Concerned organisations and agencies should closely monitor the extended-range forecasts issued by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), which provide useful guidance on rainfall conditions over the next 2–3 weeks. Such forecasts can support timely advisories for farmers and water resource management authorities. A weak monsoon is part of a natural climate process and cannot be prevented. What is important is our ability to minimise its adverse impacts on critical sectors, particularly agriculture and water resources. @Indiametdept @PMOIndia @ndmaindia

Delighted to share my opinion article written for Moneycontrol on the critical role of climate change and extreme weather as a silent driver of inflation in India. The article can be found here: moneycontrol.com/news/opinio… India’s agriculture remains highly sensitive to weather variability and extreme climatic events. Nearly 65 per cent of the country’s cropped area is still rain-fed, making agricultural production particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in rainfall. However, the impact of extreme weather extends well beyond crop production. Disruptions caused by extreme weather create bottlenecks across the food supply chain—affecting harvesting, transportation, storage, and distribution. These disruptions increase wastage, reduce market arrivals, and exert upward pressure on prices. A growing body of economic research now confirms a strong link between climate variability and food inflation. At the same time, India’s food distribution system continues to face structural constraints. It is estimated that only about 4 per cent of fresh produce is currently handled through cold-chain infrastructure, leaving a substantial share exposed to spoilage during transit and storage. Consequently, weather-related shocks often widen the gap between farm output and consumer availability. Climate resilience is emerging as a central pillar for ensuring food system stability and managing inflation. In a country where food carries nearly half the weight in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), strengthening resilience is not merely an agricultural concern—it is a macroeconomic imperative. India’s food system is entering a new phase, where weather risks must be systematically integrated into economic planning and policy making. Enhanced forecasting capabilities, resilient infrastructure, and adaptive agricultural practices will play a decisive role in stabilizing food prices in the years ahead. @moneycontrolcom @atriauniversity

Monsoon 2026 Update In view of emerging indications of a possible El Niño event over the Pacific and the concerns regarding the prospects for the 2026 monsoon season, I would like to highlight the following key points: There is a high probability that an El Niño event will develop over the equatorial Pacific during the 2026 monsoon season. Seasonal forecasts from ECMWF and NCEP (USA) suggest that it could evolve into a strong El Niño event. These models also indicate the possible development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during the monsoon season. While a strong El Niño is typically associated with deficient monsoon rainfall over India, a positive IOD generally tends to support normal or above-normal rainfall, partly offsetting the El Niño influence. However, forecasts made at this time of the year carry significant uncertainty due to the so-called “spring predictability barrier.” Historically, the simultaneous occurrence of a strong El Niño and a positive IOD has been observed in 1972, 1982, 1997, 2015, and 2023. Among these years, the Indian monsoon was normal in 1997 (100% of LPA) and near normal in 2023 (95% of LPA). The remaining years—1972, 1982, and 2015—experienced deficient monsoons. Therefore, there is reason for cautious concern regarding the potential development of a strong El Niño event during the coming monsoon season. Given the current uncertainties, clearer signals are likely to emerge by May 2026, when the evolution of El Niño and IOD conditions can be assessed with greater confidence. At present, there is no reason for alarm. However, the government and relevant agencies should closely monitor the evolution of these climate drivers and begin considering strategic response measures that can be implemented once more reliable forecasts become available. It is also important to consider the possible delayed impacts of this year’s El Niño, particularly on heat waves in 2027. There is a possibility of more frequent and intense heat waves next year, with an earlier onset potentially beginning as early as March. India has strong scientific expertise and forecasting capability, and these strengths should be effectively leveraged to anticipate and manage the potential impacts on the monsoon and related climate extremes. Summary: At this stage, the message is not to panic, but to remain vigilant and begin thinking proactively about strategies to manage possible impacts. I will continue to update this assessment as new information becomes available. Please note that this is not an official seasonal forecast of the Indian monsoon. For the authoritative monsoon forecast, please refer to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). @Indiametdept @PMOIndia @atriauniversity

Asian College of Journalism, in association with Mongabay India, is organizing a hybrid training workshop for journalists on Climate Change Reporting on Saturday, 11 October 2025, from 9:30 AM to 1:00 PM. I will be conducting a session on “Impacts of Climate Change on the Indian Monsoon and Extreme Weather.” The other two sessions will focus on “Climate Change and Health” and “Getting the Climate Facts Right.” This workshop will be an excellent opportunity for journalists and media professionals to gain deeper insights into the multifaceted impacts of climate change and to strengthen their ability to communicate these critical issues with clarity and accuracy. Kindly register using the link below. @atriauniversity

Air Pollution in Indian Cities As winter approaches, North India once again braces for a season of deteriorating air quality. The region experiences dangerously high levels of air pollution, which not only threatens public health but also claims countless lives every year. Human activities remain the primary drivers behind this alarming rise in pollution levels. To address this pressing issue, Atria University is organizing a Webinar on 16th October to deliberate on critical challenges surrounding air pollution and air quality in Indian cities. The event will feature a distinguished panel of experts from leading institutions in India and abroad, including scientists from NASA laboratories. They will share insights on: 1) Air pollution observations from multiple platforms, including satellites 2) Advanced modeling and prediction using state-of-the-art mathematical tools 3) Policy frameworks and strategies for mitigating air pollution Registration is Free. Please register here: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F… @atriauniversity @moesgoi @moefcc @CPCB_OFFICIAL

An excellent piece, Akshay. Well articulated.

A well written article @jayashreenandi on global warming throws monsoon patterns out of gear. The global warming causes more frequent weather extremes in the Himalayas leading to more frequent devastating flash floods. We need to be well prepared.

I was delighted to participate in a panel discussion on Sansad TV on the Deep Ocean Mission, launched by the Ministry of Earth Sciences Government of India in June 2021. It is a matter of immense pride and privilege for me to have steered the launch of this Mission, with an overall outlay of more than ₹4000 crores, during my tenure as Secretary, @moesgoi The panel discussion is available at this link: youtube.com/watch?v=75kxreG-… In the discussion, I emphasized why deep ocean exploration is vital for India’s future and self-reliance. Just as space became a strategic frontier five decades ago, today the ocean is emerging as the next. These technologies are highly complex, and no country is willing to share them—making indigenous capability essential. I am thrilled to see the remarkable progress made by our scientists and engineers at @moesgoi , who are now close to completing both the deep-sea mining system and the manned submersible, which can carry three people to a depth of 6000 meters. Back in 2018, I had written a guest editorial in Current Science highlighting why India must invest in deep-sea research. That article laid the foundation for preparations that eventually culminated in the launch of this Mission. currentscience.ac.in/Volumes… This achievement would not have been possible without the dedication of MoES scientists and engineers, the support of our stakeholders, and above all, the vision and trust of the Government of India, under the leadership of Hon’ble Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi ji. The Deep Ocean Mission will help India emerge as a global leader in deep-sea research and exploration—a true leap into the blue frontier. @atriauniversity @moesgoi @sansad_tv

My interview with Maharashtra Times (Mumbai Edition) on the recent cloudburst incidents in the Himalayas has been published, with an English version. In the discussion, I addressed key questions: What are cloudbursts and how do they occur? Is their frequency increasing? Can they be predicted? Are they linked to climate change? What role does unchecked developmental activity in the Himalayas play? I emphasized that cloudbursts are deadly phenomena that can cause immense destruction and loss of precious lives. To reduce risks, we urgently need stronger early warning systems, effective communication protocols, and deeper community-level engagement. In many ways, we are dealing with “weather bombs” in the fragile Himalayan ecosystem. @atriauniversity @moesgoi @ndmaindia

Uttarkashi Flash Flood Exposes Glaring Gaps. NDTV story on the event. With global warming, the frequency and intensity of flash floods are only expected to rise. This underscores the urgent need for robust nowcasting systems for cloudburst events, leveraging radar and satellite data enhanced by AI algorithms. Equally critical is the establishment of region-specific flash flood warning systems tailored for the Himalayan terrain. We must also ensure that development does not come at the cost of disturbing this fragile ecosystem. There is growing concern that the Himalayas may be inching towards a tipping point in terms of natural hazards. A comprehensive, multi-hazard early warning system—coordinated across all key stakeholders including IMD, CWC, GSI and state governments —is urgently essential to minimize future loss of life and property. @moesgoi @ndtv @ndmaindia @PMOIndia

With humility and gratitude, I’m delighted to share that my research contributions have crossed a significant milestone — over 20,000 citations. For any researcher, reaching this number is deeply satisfying and exciting. But for me, it’s never been about the numbers. This milestone reflects the guidance, support, and brilliance of many individuals — my teachers, mentors, exceptional collaborators, and students, some of whom continue to work with me. I am truly grateful to each one of them. What makes this journey unique is that research was never my formal responsibility. Throughout my career, I have primarily been engaged in operational work and scientific administration. I never received dedicated research grants. Research was, and still is, a personal passion I pursued alongside my official duties. Even during my tenure as Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, I continued to guide Ph.D. students and publish research papers. While citation counts and h-indexes are often seen as academic achievements, the true measure of research lies in its real-world impact — in better policies, improved systems, and societal benefit. I don’t claim to have made any groundbreaking discoveries, but I do take pride in doing meaningful, useful research that has contributed in tangible ways. I remain committed to research and to mentoring young scholars. I hope to continue this journey with the same passion and purpose. Wish me good luck.

Hearty Congratulations @iitmpune for completing 10 years of dedicated winter fog experiments (WIFEX) at the IGI airport to understand the physical processes of Fog and developing a prediction system. Wish them all the best for the next phase of WIFEX and development of more skillful Fog prediction systems. ews.tropmet.res.in/wifex/ind… @moesgoi @Sachin_Ghude

Kindly join us for the official release of the book: “South Asian Summer Monsoon: Processes, Predictions and Societal Impacts” Friday, 6th June 2025, 2:00 PM IST At Atria University, Hebbal, Bangalore Join us live: YouTube Live Stream Link: youtube.com/live/ZjELxwHrRkE