a bit of math and low latency.
Manhattan, NY
Joined August 2009
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Ari ♛ ✡︎ retweeted
ما این نبرد با تاریکی رو پیروز می‌شیم.
با اینکه تمام پول‌ها و کثافت‌ها پشت رژیم است،
ما برنده می‌شیم و تو تاریخ، ایرانی‌ها ازشون به‌عنوان سردمداران آزادی و شرافت یاد می‌کنن.
من به این مطمئنم، مبارزه ما فقط با رژیم نیست، ما داریم با این کثافتی که دنیا رو برداشته مبارزه می‌کنیم.
من عصبانی می‌شم،
خسته می‌شم،
کلافه می‌شم،
ناامید نمیشم…
واقعاً دست همه کسانی که با تمام این فشارها پرقدرت مبارزه می‌کنن رو می‌بوسم.
بچه‌ها، شما دارید تاریخ رو می‌سازید.
دمتون گرم ❤️
#پاينده_ایران_جاویدشاه
جمهوری‌اسلامی تو قلب اروپا ایرانیا رو تهدید به ترور کرده.
فردا ۷ نوامبر صدبرابر بلندتر فریاد میزنیم جاوید شاه.
#جاوید_شاه
Ari ♛ ✡︎ retweeted
Schämen Sie sich Herr @bundeskanzler
Schämen Sie sich @BMI_Bund
seit wann lässt sich Deutschland von Terrordrohungen eines ausländischen Regimes einschüchtern?
Wer bestimmt auf deutschem Boden, wer sprechen darf? Unsere Verfassung oder Teheran?
Unsere Souveränität ist nicht verhandelbar. Keinen Millimeter vor Terror und Erpressung!
Ari ♛ ✡︎ retweeted
Milton Friedman explains why liberty must come before equality:
“A society that aims for equality before liberty will end up with neither equality nor liberty.”
“A society that aims first for liberty will not end up with equality, but it will end up with a closer approach to equality than any other kind of system that has ever been developed.”
“You can only aim at equality by giving some people the right to take things from others. What ultimately happens when you aim for equality is that A and B decide what C should do for D, except that they take a little bit of commission off on the way.”
Ari ♛ ✡︎ retweeted
کسری جان میپرسی از کجا میدونم ؟ از دخترایی که ازت شکایت کردن
یادته یه بار با ذوق میگفتی دختره جلوی من لباسای باز پوشید من فکر کردم دلش میخواد بعد رفته ازم شکایت کرده ولی فقط باید یه کورس سکشوال هرسمنت بگذرونم و هرهر میخندی ؟ :)) خب به کس ننه ت بخند
Ari ♛ ✡︎ retweeted
While you're here.
Did you know... if there were ships in the Middle East on Jan 8-9, and Trump could fulfill his promise to help, the "war" never would have begun in the first place?
Ah, but Elbridge Colby moved our ships in October 2025, leaving America and our allies completely naked in the region...
And did you know Elbridge Colby was a favorite of Tucker Carlson, Curt Mills, and Trita Parsi?
Ohhh yeah. Tucker and Curt made a big fuss defending him on Tucker's Jan 25, 2025 episode.
Honestly, I think people would digest that specific episode much differently, today.
Anyway.
Pete Hegseth should fire Elbridge Colby.
Ari ♛ ✡︎ retweeted
Dear @JDVance,
You warned on Wednesday that the next few months would bring a lot of gaslighting. Then you wrote the first draft.
Your post says any honest conversation must start with the war. Great. Since April you have been the administration’s lead negotiator, which makes you the owner of the track that turned a seven-week bombing campaign into an eight-month stalemate. Every week of ceasefire that was not a peace kept the Strait a question mark and kept diesel where eighty-seven percent of voters said they could feel it. Had you spent the spring arguing for the one hour the President says it would take instead of extending the stalemate, the war would have been over by summer, the pump would have said so, and you would be writing a different post. You promised no forever war. You then built a ceasefire with no exit, and sat on it for seven months. Tell voters what settlement you believed was achievable, what deadlines mattered, and what the administration planned to do if negotiations failed.
You say you know a great many of the smartest people in politics, but not one of them has a name. (Tucker?) At least one of them cannot count (also Tucker?), because on your list of four things, items one and two are the same item, and item three is a bumper sticker. Item four is the only entry that names a country, and it is not the country we are at war with.
(BTW I can guess where item four came from. Days ago @TuckerCarlson wrote that the administration was considering striking Pickaxe Mountain under pressure from Netanyahu, on the strength of Israeli intelligence. That is your fourth item, written out in full. No one had to poll for it. It was posted.)
The poll itself. “Change our relationship to Israel” is broad enough to mean several incompatible things. What did those voters actually say? Did they spontaneously mention Israel? Were they offered a list? What percentage selected that answer? Were they objecting to this war, particular Israeli policies, American assistance, or the alliance itself? Why not publish the questionnaire, the sample, the percentages, and the crosstabs.
By contrast, the networks published their exit polls. The issues voters were asked about were the economy, democracy, immigration, corruption, the Iran war and artificial intelligence. Israel did not need a column, because voters were not voting about Israel. The sole evidence that the American electorate rendered a verdict on Israel is a phone call between you and a man you will not identify.
Contrast your response with @realDonaldTrump’s. Asked about your post, he acknowledged the war’s electoral cost and said he would make the decision again because long term it's the only answer. Agree or disagree, he defended his decision.
In July, you yourself said America would have fought this war without Israeli influence. You explained that the president independently opposed an Iranian nuclear weapon—and that you agreed.
Now your post finds room for an unnamed pollster’s undefined grievance against Israel, but none for an accounting of your own decisions as the administration’s lead negotiator.
Name the pollster. Publish the questions and the results. Tell voters which decisions you supported, which you opposed, and which you would reverse.
The President answered for his decision. That is leadership. If you want to be a leader, you need to be able to answer for yours.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
Ari ♛ ✡︎ retweeted
The Republican Party must DUMP Qatar supporting, Islam Ignoring @JDVance
Ari ♛ ✡︎ retweeted
این پست خیلی مهم رو دقیقا چندساعت قبل از ساسپندی گذاشتم و جوری که باید و شاید دیده نشد.
حتما بخونید. قسمت اصلی‌ش روی منشن‌ها با همین اکانت گذاشته بودم که اکانت اصلیم به‌خاطر این پست ساسپند نشه! 😂🤧
🧵همرزمان پادشاهی‌خواه
با حلوا حلوا دهن شیرین نمیشه!
چند سال دنبال یه راه امن ارتباطی بودی؟
دنبال سازماندهی و یک سامانه‌ی رسمی میگشتی تا به صف همکاری ملی بپیوندی؟
حالا دیگه بهانه‌ای نمونده!
ابزار رسمی در دستان توئه و نوبت اقدام توست. امروز هر شهروند وطن‌پرست، باید به یک چشم عقاب آماده‌ی شکار در محله‌ی خودش تبدیل بشه.
چطور میتونی همین امروز ضربه‌ات رو بزنی؟
ادامه رو بخون، یه کم هم کدگشایی داری. :)
⏬
