Joel Levin (@residualdeviant) profile picture

Behavioral scientist at @UCSD @RadySchool. Working on expertise, human-algorithm collaboration, methods + applications in medical decision making. 🐙/2

San Diego
Joined June 2009
Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)
To my eye, a lot of people in my circles are excessively skeptical of answers provided by (frontier) AI on common topics. This is basically a good thing, given inherent uncertainty and the asymmetric costs of under/over-reliance.
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After safety (broadly), the most pressing AI issue is tax policy.
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tldr: somehow, the senate seems to largely get it and shows first steps towards acting in meaningful ways
i guess i assumed this hearing would be covered more so i didn't bother to tweet much concrete about it, but apparently not many people even on the TL have the stomach to watch two hours of congress. this was a hearing before the homeland security committee on *rogue ai* specifically. as far as i could tell it was extremely bipartisan. @HawleyMO , the senator in the middle here who brought out the huggingface slide, is a hyper-conservative missouri senator. the people testifying were @ChrisPainterYup (METR president), @DKokotajlo (ai2027/2040), @MariusHobbhahn (apollo research CEO), and a cybersecurity expert and legal expert i don't know. so... pretty fucking stacked on testimony not every senator asked good questions. but most of them did. all of them very clearly already knew plenty of details about the huggingface incident and multiple other incidents. most of them had clear understanding of terms like "misalignment", "recursive self improvement", "chain of thought / chain of thought monitoring", etc etc!! they all clearly had their own policy angles they liked and were pushing, implicitly or explicitly. but as best as i could tell: - it seemed pretty much obvious common sense to every senator there that what happened and was happening were not "mere industrial incidents" caused by humans making simple mistakes. they independently brought up how bad it would be for rogue AI agents to move laterally between data centers - they all seemed to basically take RSI quite seriously. not necessarily to the extent of talking about xrisk, but certainly to the extent of discussing future models becoming much much more capable, much much less controllable, and causing much more damage or loss of life. - they mostly seemed to have a clear intuitive understanding of why RSI might lead to misalignment. it didn't take much, it was a really simple chain of reasoning they themselves laid out, "if the models right now are kinda misaligned and we don't know what they're doing sometimes, and then we have them build the next models and those ones build the next ones and so on, and we're having to ask the AI's what's going on to even understand it with how fast it's going, we really won't know how they're built or what they'll do" - at one point a senator said flat out "should we just make RSI illegal?" (not a joke! this really happened!) - every single senator seemed to think it was obvious we needed *both* much harsher liability regimes for ai developers and also new legislation, both very quickly. this was the complete consensus, difference basically just being degree. - they were largely quite concerned about china, and falling behind china. but this clearly wasn't the be-all end-all. as mentioned above they all thought it was obvious necessary to stop rogue ai even if it meant moving more slowly. - at one point a senator said "china is a tightly controlled communist society, they're going to run into these same issues, and there's absolutely no way they're just going to let them run wild, they'll obviously stop at that point, so we're not really in a race" - on the other hand another senator said "china isn't concerned with human life"... dario-modeing i came away from this incredibly encouraged. i don't know exactly what's going to happen here, and ofc this is a small subset of congress and one hearing, and they each have their own policy agendas most of which are probably super divergent from mine. but holy shit !!! they understood a lot of what was going on! they care!! this is an obviously salient political and safety issue to them, and clearly bipartisan! the US government is awake.
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How did people in 1913 see the world? How did they think about the future? We trained LLMs exclusively on pre-1913 texts—no Wikipedia, no 20/20. The model literally doesn't know WWI happened. Announcing the Ranke-4B family of models. Coming soon: github.com/DGoettlich/histor…
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A 15% tariff "without" EU retaliation would likely increase "overall" US welfare per our projections: alashkar.pages.iu.edu/MAGA_J… But this doesn't mean US consumers benefit. It's a massive redistribution of income from US consumers (and the EU) to US corporations and the Treasury.
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🚨New WP!🚨 "Antiracism and its Discontents: The Prevalence and Political Influence of Opposition to Antiracism among White Americans" w/ @RobbWiller We find opposition to antiracism is a widespread ideology profoundly shaping US racial politics 🧵 osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/xv…
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There are DOZENS of us
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Trump & Kamala have proposed a range of narrow tax cuts recently (tips; overtime; social security; now interest on car loans.) I'd be the last to note that these are horrible economic policies... but it's also notable how psychologically well-informed they are. Very clever.
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💯 Having your paper retracted is not necessarily something to be ashamed of. But impeding the process almost always is. We've been fortunate to see many good examples of how to handle retraction recently, along with the bad
A quick thought on a difficult topic: The purpose of retractions is to correct the academic record, and to remove conclusions that we now know are not supported by the evidence from the literature. 1/3
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Unfortunate situation, thoughtful response. We turn the ship slowly, largely through the voluntary efforts of individual researchers. (in case you're wondering what that looks like) Thanks @J_R_Schroeder
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The "one rough hour" bit is a more unambiguous endorsement of police brutality than I thought I'd ever hear from a US president. Believe him when he says that he admires the authoritarians.
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Now here's a concept of a plan
Here’s my healthcare plan btw.
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Economists claim to understand diminishing returns everywhere except humour: evidence from phenomenally lukewarm "concept of a plan" tweets plastered on my timeline
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Also see their tutorial on how to get started as a behavioral scientist interested in using open LLMs in research: link.springer.com/article/10…
🚨 New preprint 🚨 I am excited to share a piece with @rui__mata and @ZakASHussain in which we advocate for a greater reliance on open LLMs in the behavioral and social sciences. Despite the availability of powerful, more reproducible open alternatives (e.g., via @huggingface), these fields continue to favor closed models. Preprint: osf.io/preprints/osf/ybvzs
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Joel Levin retweeted
How do you feel about happy hour?
How do you feel about dynamic pricing? Mostly positive: 10% Mostly negative: 74% yougov.co.uk/topics/economy/…
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If I die an untimely death and you think that a policy could have prevented it, I would like you to advocate for that policy as soon as is convenient.
Georgia Governor: "Today is not the day for politics or policy…” It’s not too soon to talk policy—it’s too late. Over the last five years, Governor Kemp has passed ZERO policies to stop guns from falling into the wrong hands.
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Wow. Come for the pithy commentary on error control practices, stay for this particular fox and it's presumed grandmother.
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Why is nobody talking about the fact that Chuck Schumer sounds exactly like Dave Attell
WATCH: Sen. Chuck Schumer speaks at 2024 Democratic National Convention Night 2. “I worked with Kamala Harris when she was Senator Harris. I saw a leader who was fearless, who stood up for middle class families like the one she was raised in,” @SenSchumer said.
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🚨New WP: Can LLMs predict results of social science experiments?🚨 Prior work uses LLMs to simulate survey responses, but can they predict results of social science experiments? Across 70 studies, we find striking alignment (r = .85) between simulated and observed effects 🧵👇
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Sometimes I forget how much I owe my parents, for all they achieved and passed on to me. My mom sent me this pic today. This is a thread about her. That’s my mom in lower right. My grandmother, top left, was illiterate and lived in a mud&hay house she built with her husband.1/n
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