i post about ai, religion, and western civ
Joined July 2026
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Among the Fortune 500, less than 5% of actual daily work has been automated. We've barely scratched the surface, and the models today are the worst they'll ever be.
Calling AI a bubble right now is like calling the internet a bubble in 1995 when people only used it for email. We are still so, so early.
1% of companies represent 90% of AI spending.
Of that 90%, 80% of this spend are from unprofitable VC backed companies.
So, roughly, $0.70-75 of every dollar of AI spending right now comes from AI companies spending VC investment dollars.
As a result, the revenue quality in AI is currently poor. This happened in previous cycles as well, like cloud when early users of AWS were mostly venture backed startups.
The thing, though, is that before AWS could scale and pull thru GCP and others as legitimate cash machines, there were a few clearing events to sort out these brittle revenues.
This is the extrapolation of Ken’s point. We will need to transition from speculative AI spending to consistent, reliable spend that shows up in public market earnings reports.
This hasn’t happened yet because most of the breathtaking revenue growth comes from LPs investing in VC funds who then send it to startups.
Pretty clear that Astra was benchmaxxed to hell and they paid a bunch of "influencers" to hype it. Now that people have had time to use it in the real-world, the sentiment is pretty sour
Fable 5.1 is doing just... absolute circles around Astra (I just got the reset today, it's down to 90% already on medium not fast)
Fable is architecting, fixing on the spot, updating Linear tickets, doing real time answering.
Astra is chugging on one settings page, stops all the time, spends ungodly amount of tokens (but it's great at browser use) and just... I don't understand this.
User error? Skill issue? it should be near AGI, it should be doing... at least the same level? and yet... just, what's going on here folks?
Coming to devday, will show folks what I mean if requested but so far, I am quite quite dissapointed.
Funny enough this is exactly why Microsoft called the second Xbox the 360 instead of Xbox 2, because they were worried casuals would think it's inferior to PlayStation 3.
I honestly think Anthropic is racing against itself trying to reach the “6” in GPT-6, because changing the checkpoint number three times in a row is not normal. 😂
Maybe they’re worried that Opus 5.1, 5.2, 5.5, 5.8 will make casual users think it’s inferior to GPT-6, and that’s why they’re going crazy with the numbering? Honestly, that’s a pretty good theory. LMAO
One of the coolest things I've seen recently
Depth-aware light injection in TypeGPU
I got a 448x448 monocular depth model down to ~8 ms on my M4 Pro across ~250 dispatches, which is fast enough to use in realtime :D
Since the inference is written directly in TypeGPU, I can just feed the depth buffer straight into the lighting pass. It never has to leave the GPU or go through any extra synchronization/interop step
Inference, lighting and draw all go through the same command encoder.
This is great news for humanity. Reddit is a cesspool of mental illness and leftist ideology (but I repeat myself). It's also the primary reason why AI writing is so cringe. That's exactly how Redditors talk.
looks like reddit is almost wiped from chatgpt sources
the query fanout changes had a big impact
and the past couple of days it seems to be almost completely removed from prompt responses
promptwatch.com/data/reddit-…
Sacks is trying to have it both ways by claiming that regulation both favors frontier labs and simultaneously is actually bad for them because it slows them down and lets open weight models catch up. Which is it?
Some thoughts on Dario’s post:
1. Dario does not actually address Gavin Baker’s account of what he said – something he could easily deny if it were inaccurate.
2. Dario claims his critics live in a “bubble” where all regulation equals regulatory capture. He calls this an overly simplified view and notes that “Many people outside this bubble think of regulation as something that constrains corporate power and benefits ordinary people.” This argument is a straw man. Of course treating all regulation as capture would be overly simplified – but almost no one holds that view. I have repeatedly argued for strong antitrust enforcement to keep industries competitive, especially Big Tech. If Anthropic continues toward monopoly or duopoly status, I would be among the first to demand those rules apply.
3. Regulatory capture is not vague or in the eye of the beholder. Nobel laureate George Stigler defined it as regulation acquired by an industry and designed and operated primarily for its benefit. Stigler challenged the traditional view that government regulation arises from a benevolent state protecting the public from market failures. Rather, industry groups have concentrated stakes and pour resources into influencing regulators, whereas the public’s stake is diffuse and unorganized. The revolving door between companies and the agencies that regulate them compounds the problem. Anthropic understands these dynamics: it has hired multiple senior Biden AI-policy officials and built a substantial government-affairs operation plus a network of aligned organizations to push its preferred frameworks at state and federal levels.
4. Dario has consistently pushed for a new federal agency to review and approve frontier models prior to release – a proposal framed variously as an “FDA for AI,” an “FAA for AI,” and most recently a “FINRA for AI.” I call it a “DMV for AI” because a review process modeled on the FAA or FDA (which takes years) or FINRA (which issues rules for a staid industry widely seen as protecting incumbents) will create long queues as AI models wait for testing and approval. This process will only become more labyrinthine as rules accumulate to prevent theoretical harms. This would handicap the U.S. relative to China, which will not adopt the same constraints. It would also undermine Anthropic’s own business model, whose pricing power depends on remaining ahead of open models. Whatever Dario states today, it is difficult to believe the company would simply accept outcomes that erase that advantage.
5. Anthropic is on track to become one of the most valuable companies in history, with the resources to navigate any approval process and shape the rules while competitors wait. Dario wants open models under heavier scrutiny – he has called them dangerous in Senate testimony, criticized them for not being centrally monitored or withdrawn, and linked them to IP theft. He says he has never sought a ban, but he could achieve a similar result by insisting that identical rules apply to both open and closed models. The U.S. risks becoming an island of costly closed models while the rest of the world races ahead with broader choice.
6. Dario acknowledges that AI is structurally centralizing but attributes this mainly to chips and scaling laws. Access to compute matters, but the deeper risk is who decides which capabilities are available to whom. His preferred pre-deployment testing and FAA/FINRA-style oversight would place that gatekeeping power in a federal bureaucracy working hand-in-glove with a small number of frontier labs – reinforcing centralization rather than countering it.
7. The second part of Dario’s post assumes we have amnesia about Anthropic’s well-orchestrated campaigns hyping AI fears. His May 2025 claim that AI would wipe out 50 percent of entry-level knowledge jobs within five years still lacks supporting evidence fifteen months later. Similarly Anthropic breathlessly promoted its heavily contrived “blackmail” study on 60 Minutes. Yet Dario blames public negativity on a long-standing loss of trust in institutions rather than his own messaging.
8. These narratives have done more than anything to shape public fear. People are left asking the same question Mark Zuckerberg posed: why race to build a future you describe in such negative terms? Thomas Sowell’s "The Vision of the Anointed" captures the mindset – elite intellectuals convinced that only they are enlightened enough to control the outcome. As Zuckerberg notes, concentrating power in the hands of an enlightened few has rarely produced the promised results; the practitioners turn out to be less enlightened in practice than in self-conception.
9. Gavin Baker summarized the disagreement cleanly on our pod: Dario believes frontier AI is too powerful to distribute; we believe it is too powerful to centralize. Dario appears to believe, sincerely, that safety and progress are best served by centralizing authority in a marriage of corporate and state power. The weight of human history gives us reason to fear that outcome.
DECKARD retweeted
concerning that data companies serving the US government (mercor, surge) are also working with Chinese AI labs.
serving the US government should not be a commercial convenience, it must be a bedrock principle for startups.
American companies should not be selling data to Chinese AI labs.
@scale_AI doesn’t do this work, and we have turned down revenue because of it.
The companies that do are undermining American AI leadership and risking national security.
Only a few months ago models couldn't count the number of r's in "strawberry". Now they're solving frontier math problems. And this is the worst the models will ever be. Buckle up
yes, nonsofic groups exist: this statement is one of many new beautiful results proved by Astra, our next major model.
We're releasing 10 such Astra proofs, complete with lean certificates and CoT walkthroughs for each of them. The results are wide-ranging, from von Neumann algebras (disproof of Connes' Rigidity Conjecture) to better bounds for high dimensional sphere packing, for circuit complexity, for monochromatic triangles in multicolored graphs, and more.
More thoughts here: openai.com/index/ten-advance…
Bro didn't even read the post. They clearly said they did a review after the Hugging Face news broke. Everything is a conspiracy apparently
It's amazing how many people have repeated this obvious falsehood. It was quite obviously *net* ARR after a relatively flat Q2.
They hit 1B DAU seven months behind schedule. But they shitpost so I guess they're the best.
