Distinguished Fellow and Program Lead, Middle East Program, @Stimsoncenter & Non Resident Senior Fellow @SAISHopkins FPI @FPI_SAIS. These views are my own.
OH, Washington DC & Beirut
Joined February 2011
- Tweets84.5K
- Following1.9K
- Followers22.6K
- Likes37K
Randa Slim retweeted
Think back to 2006, last midterm w/ an unpopular war/GOP president. Where were the biggest House upsets? Places like IN, IA, KS, MN (Tim Walz!), NH, OH, WI, Upstate NY.
That's why I think the Midwest & places w/ lots of secular white voters are especially ripe for surprises.
OMG
New: Sources from three countries confirm that the Trump Administration has advocated Viktor Orbán for UN Secretary-General.
The US has encouraged Orbán to enter the race, even bringing him the initial idea of a joint U.S.-Russia-China candidacy.
WSJ:
wsj.com/opinion/viktor-orban…
Randa Slim retweeted
The IDF chief of staff has effectively told/confirmed to the Israeli public that Netanyahu is trying to provoke a war with Iran for political survival.
חשיפה עכשיו במהדורה |
עימות חסר תקדים בין הרמטכל לבין ראש הממשלה שהגיע לשיא או לשפל ביממה האחרונה
הנושא ברקע: הסוגיה האיראנית
וחשש של זמיר שנתניהו והדרג המדיני עלולים להוביל לתרחיש של מיסקלקולציה מול איראן רגע לפני הבחירות
גורם ביטחוני: מדובר בפעולה שעלולה להוביל לעימות בזק מול איראן בעיתוי רגיש ודרמטי, ולייצר מיסקלקולציה
גורמים בקיאים בפרטים: חשש של הדרג הצבאי מניסיון לנצל את הסוגיה האיראנית לתנופה פוליטית , טענה שגורמים מדיניים מכחישים וטוענים שמדובר בשקר של ממש
כך או כך, 2 מקורות מספרים לי שזה הגיע לרמה שהיום בביקור בפלמחים האווירה בדיון הייתה עכורה עד מאוד
בימים האחרונים זמיר קיבל איזושהי הנחיה מהדרג המדיני אבל ביקש דיון מעמיק לפני ביצוע
הוא גם ביקש אסמכתאות חוקיות וחתומות של הדרג המדיני על המהלך
בכיר ביטחוני: ההיסטוריה לא תשכח את התפקיד שמילא פה זמיר בימים האחרונים
ובשורה התחתונה: עימות יוצא דופן בחריגות שלו בין זמיר לנתניהו, סביב הסוגיה באיראן, רגע לפני מועד הבחירות.
נדגיש: כל הפרטים בידיעה הזו עברו את אישורה של הצנזורה הצבאית
Randa Slim retweeted
Indeed, the Central Bank of #Egypt (CBE) is doing a good job and knows well that there is no room for complacency as the regional storm is brewing.
It took two crises and almost $75bn of GCC support since 2013 (a large part of which were swapped for prime local assets) to bring Egypt back from the brink. The lesson has been learnt the hard way; and consolidating the hard-won and regained credibility of the CBE with international investors (as positioning hovers around $25/30bn) is critical amidst heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and anticipated end of the IMF EFF program in December. Kudos indeed as there are no easy options.
The Egyptian Pound is falling. That's not a sign of weakness, but a sign of good policy. Oil prices are spiking as fears of another hot war build, so the weaker Pound is offsetting all of that. Egypt deserves huge kudos for letting the Pound float...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
Randa Slim retweeted
💥@YaronAvraham reports relations so stained– or, if I understand correctly– orders from the executive so beyond the pale, that Zamir has demanded written clarifications and legal advice.
It seems Zamir is physically standing between Netanyahu and an Iran attack.
💥#BREAKING: @YaronAvraham reports that PM Netanyahu & IDF Chief of Staff Gen. Eyal Zamir are in an unprecedented confrontation regarding Iran. Zamir fears that on election eve Netanyahu is driving towards a scenario of immediate, dramatic escalation. *Authorized by IDF censor.*
Randa Slim retweeted
The changes made to the educational curriculum in Syria demonstrates a point I made in my recent article: “an Islamic conception of the state increasingly operates as the default presumption behind administrative decisions.” If the identity of people who are not Islamists is being erased from the curriculum, our physical erasure may not far behind. At least that’s the not-so-subtle message that many people will receive. @MEastUncovered
themiddleeastuncovered.com/p…
Syria’s Education Ministry has altered textbook images, adding veils and niqabs on women, erasing girls from some sections and removing photos of men dancing. The changes have sparked consternation and concern among Syrians who, after 15 years of war and decades of dictatorship, want and deserve an inclusive future and not one where half the population is slowly erased in schools and universities.
Randa Slim retweeted
A Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran today as part of mediation efforts to prevent escalation in the region, an informed source told Qatari-owned Al-Araby Al-Jadeed. According to the source, Iran had previously informed the mediators explicitly of its demands and positions.
Randa Slim retweeted
📰 “He approaches diplomacy with a businessman’s mindset, seeking to get the job done through personal relationships with key counterparts, transcending ideological divides & avoiding becoming bogged down by red lines," — @rmslim to @alhurranews
Read ⬇️
alhurra.com/en/48453
Randa Slim retweeted
Today, the audio of my book is an Editor's pick in Best History on Amazon. Ranking at the top as well in International Relations and... in the Murder and Mayhem category. Order your audiobook here or buy the book at your favorite local bookstore.
amazon.com/Best-Kind-America…
Randa Slim retweeted
Damn, my favourite hotel in Dubai is on the list too… 😅
#Iran
Randa Slim retweeted
تحققت منصة "تأكد" من التعديلات التي كشف عنها الصحفي محمد السلوم على المناهج الدراسية السورية، عبر مراجعة النسخ الرقمية القديمة ومقارنتها بالنسخ الرقمية والورقية المعتمدة والموزعة على طلاب التعليم الأساسي للعام الدراسي الحالي. وأكدت المقارنة وجود تعديلات شملت حذف دروس وصور، وإضافة الحجاب إلى شخصيات نسائية، وإزالة أعمال فنية.
التفاصيل 👇
verify-sy.com/ar/factcheck/s…
Randa Slim retweeted
📣Last night, Nonresident Fellow @farianasruddin spoke on a panel about the AI's impact on women's workforce participation in the GCC. She highlighted initiatives that are mitigating gender bias in datasets & upskilling workers while urging for more research.
@SQCCDC @wfpg
I don’t see the outcome, whether it is Bibi or Eisenkott, changing the direction/priorities of #Israeli policy in the region
Breaking: Final Israeli pre-election polls in three major TV channels:
• Netanyahu coalition parties win 50 out of 120 Knesset seats.
• The Bloc for Change gets 52-56 seats.
• Eisenkot favored over Netanyahu as national leader by 6-10% gap.
• The Arab parties (including Abbas’s party Raam with Jewish former police officer and MK Segalovitz) are projected to score about 16 seats.
• Small non-bloc parties may or may not get the threshold of 4 seats.
==> My take:
• Eisenkot and his partners will need the Arab parties to back them; hopefully as full coalition members rather than supportive outsiders.
• The predicted 50 Netanyahu bloc seats are not what I would have liked in the aftermath of 7 October, but not all of its voters are bibists. The ultra Orthodox parties have their separate agenda. Eisenkot’s party scores better than Likud.
• The polls can be very wrong, in either direction. And so much can still happen before and during 27 October.
• The great election odyssey I mentioned in an earlier tweet, 70K Israelis flocking from abroad to vote, is of course not included in the polls.
• For liberal democracy and some horizon for peace, this is probably the last stand. Fingers crossed.
Randa Slim retweeted
Breaking: Final Israeli pre-election polls in three major TV channels:
• Netanyahu coalition parties win 50 out of 120 Knesset seats.
• The Bloc for Change gets 52-56 seats.
• Eisenkot favored over Netanyahu as national leader by 6-10% gap.
• The Arab parties (including Abbas’s party Raam with Jewish former police officer and MK Segalovitz) are projected to score about 16 seats.
• Small non-bloc parties may or may not get the threshold of 4 seats.
==> My take:
• Eisenkot and his partners will need the Arab parties to back them; hopefully as full coalition members rather than supportive outsiders.
• The predicted 50 Netanyahu bloc seats are not what I would have liked in the aftermath of 7 October, but not all of its voters are bibists. The ultra Orthodox parties have their separate agenda. Eisenkot’s party scores better than Likud.
• The polls can be very wrong, in either direction. And so much can still happen before and during 27 October.
• The great election odyssey I mentioned in an earlier tweet, 70K Israelis flocking from abroad to vote, is of course not included in the polls.
• For liberal democracy and some horizon for peace, this is probably the last stand. Fingers crossed.
Randa Slim retweeted
U.S. Ambassador to Türkiye Tom Barrack on Syria:
I think Israel and Syria will come to terms, because President al-Sharaa has been very clear of saying, "I have no predatory interest to you, and I want to calm these waters."
And al-Sharaa doesn't have a Hezbollah, he hasn't fired a shot, they've never attacked Israel. He's telling Israel we don't want to attack.
Israel is just saying, "Uh, I'm not so sure of you yet. You were a fundamentalist, al-Nusra warrior. You have foreign fighters that are in the divisions along my border. I need some room along my border. After October 7th, I'm just not going to allow anybody to cross my border."
So we're in a trust-building—we had five great border and boundary discussions with them, starting in Paris in May of 2024. We almost got there. I think we'll get there again.
Source: @MarioNawfal
This gives me hope our country will eventually be OK.
With all due respect to everyone who is trying hard to make the country work, I am convinced that #Lebanon is not fixable.
📰 بعد التصعيد السياسي والإعلامي الذي رافق قضية شاحنة ضهر البيدر، نجحت الاتصالات السياسية التي قادها رئيس مجلس النواب نبيه بري في احتواء المواجهة التي كانت تتهدّد جلسة مجلس الوزراء التي انعقدت بعد ظهر أمس في بعبدا، على خلفية البند السابع من جدول الأعمال، المتعلّق بطلب إحالة القضية إلى المجلس العدلي. وبعد نحو أربع ساعات من المداولات، خرجت الحكومة بتفاهم قضى بتأجيل الإحالة، في انتظار استكمال التحقيقات وتحديد المسؤوليات، من دون أن تنجح في إخفاء الانقسام السياسي الذي ظهر مع انسحاب وزراء «القوات اللبنانية» من الجلسة.
المخرج الذي جرى التوصل إليه لم يكن قراراً بحسم الخلاف حول القضية، بل اتفاقاً ضمنياً على فصل المسار السياسي عن المسار القضائي، وتجنّب التصويت على الإحالة في هذه المرحلة. وبحسب معلومات «الأخبار»، انضم حزب الكتائب إلى المناخ الذي أتاح تمرير التفاهم، بعدما لبّى رئيسه سامي الجميل دعوة رئيس الجمهورية جوزيف عون إلى بعبدا قبل الجلسة، في إطار اتصالات هدفت إلى منع انتقال الخلاف إلى صدام داخل الحكومة. وفي المقابل، بقي انسحاب وزراء «القوات» التعبير الأبرز عن اعتراض الفريق المطالب بإحالة الملف إلى المجلس العدلي.
