ex-tradfi | toolmaker | playing with Schrödinger profits

Joined January 2024
rustynode retweeted
Many of you don't understand how serious this is, so let me break it down. In computer science there is a famous kind of puzzle called 3-SAT. You are given a long list of yes-or-no switches and a set of rules about how they must be arranged, and you have to find a combination that satisfies every rule. The obvious way to solve it is to try every combination, but each new switch doubles the number of possibilities, so a puzzle with a few hundred switches would take longer than the age of the universe to brute force. For decades, the smartest people in the field found clever tricks that made this a little faster, but every trick still hit the same wall: the time required kept exploding as the puzzle grew. About 25 years ago, two computer scientists, Russell Impagliazzo and Ramamohan Paturi, working with Francis Zane, turned that wall into a formal idea. They proposed the Exponential Time Hypothesis, which says this explosion is not a failure of human cleverness but a law of nature. No algorithm, however brilliant, will ever solve 3-SAT without the time blowing up exponentially. Nobody could prove it, but almost everyone believed it, and it became one of the foundations of modern computer science. Researchers used it as a measuring stick. If you could show that solving some other problem quickly would also crack 3-SAT quickly, you had shown that problem was hopelessly hard too. Hundreds of papers, across scheduling, graphs, logic and much more, rest on this one assumption. Now an internal AI model at OpenAI claims to have broken it. It says it found an algorithm that solves these puzzles meaningfully faster than the hypothesis allows, and it has checked the proof in a computer verification system called Lean. And here is the remarkable part: the very people who proposed the hypothesis, Impagliazzo and Paturi, along with MIT's Ryan Williams, are now leading the public review of whether a machine has disproved their own idea. So what happens next? If the disproof holds, a large part of theoretical computer science has to be revisited. Every result that said "this problem cannot be solved faster, assuming ETH" loses its foundation, and researchers will have to work out which of those walls were real and which were simply where we stopped looking. It does not mean everything becomes easy. The new algorithm is still slow in absolute terms and this is not the famous P versus NP problem being solved. But it means our map of what is possible was wrong in a place we were very confident about, and it was an AI that redrew it. If the disproof fails, the hypothesis survives and the field breathes out, but we will still have watched an AI produce serious, checkable work on one of the deepest questions in the discipline, closely enough that the founders of the idea had to take it seriously. Either way, something has shifted.
An internal model at OpenAI has produced a claimed refutation of ETH! Russell Impagliazzo, Mohan Paturi, and I have been asked to help organize an open and independent examination of this claim. 1/4
286
1,324
180
14,127
1,143,255
rustynode retweeted
not only am i not worried about the crypto community's ability to handle the upcoming ai/quantum threat, i will venture to say that in the next 2 yrs the world will realize crypto is far better prepared for it than the rest of the internet and finance. we've had a trillion dollar *irreversible* honey pot for a decade, producing a far more battletested system and adversarial security culture than pretty much anywhere else on earth.
106
291
77
2,349
162,087
rustynode retweeted
🚀 Introducing DeepInfer, our in-house inference framework, now fully open source! Powering DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash at scale with high throughput and low latency. We’re sharing our production stack to help the community lower compute costs, reduce energy use, and make AI more affordable. 🔗 github.com/deepseek-ai/DeepI… 1/4
1,645
4,894
2,335
43,305
6,784,445
rustynode retweeted
New from our STEM Fellows Program: Designing more efficient quantum circuits with Claude. Given plain-language instructions, Claude Mythos 5 designed quantum circuits that improve on the best published ones, sometimes by an order of magnitude or more. More efficient circuits reduce the resources needed by quantum algorithms, which could bring quantum computing applications in chemistry and materials science within reach sooner. Read more: anthropic.com/research/desig…
482
618
355
5,503
926,840
The world becomes a lot easier to navigate once you realize that intelligence is in incredibly high supply, but courage always runs at a shortage This has always been true for many centuries, but now even more in the age of AI. Everyone will have access to super intelligence at the tip of their fingers But very few will actually use it to generate wealth and build unique things. The simple reason is because not enough people have the courage to do the work in order to get there Being smart is incredibly overrated. Willing to take risk is incredibly underrated
18
106
11
1,052
34,646
rustynode retweeted
Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash. Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase). Don't rush. While I believe there is cause for action a rushed migration would do more harm than good. Don't panic either. Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple, preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets. IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster). Recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition. Long-held, unquestioned hypotheses have fallen. This includes the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture. In hindsight, May's unexpected disproof of the Erdős unit distance conjecture was our warning shot. Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us. They say there are weeks where decades happen. We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen. Could our magic 64-byte ECDSA signatures be too good to be true? Was it just security through obscurity all this time? Elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence. Curves carry rich structure, with room for fancy tricks like Schoof, Frobenius, pairings. (By contrast, hashes are designed to minimise algebraic structure.) Separately, as Ewin Tang can attest, an efficient quantum algorithm sometimes foreshadows an efficient classical one. We should be open to the possibility of a classical counterpart to Shor that breaks elliptic curves and RSA at once. Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case. I urge large, sophisticated actors to lead by example. Project11's "risq list" (bitcoin-risq-list.projecteleven[.]com) is a great tracker of exposed BTC pubkeys. Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether have an opportunity to harden their cold storage. Next month I'll address institutions in London in a live Q&A (forum.ethereuminstitutional[.]org/london-2026). Again, please do not rush. Wallets holding under 50 BTC enjoy partial cover from "Satoshi's shield", i.e. his 20K exposed addresses that hold 50 BTC each. Load-bearing signers like oracles and L2 security councils should consider rotating ECDSA pubkeys with every signed message and/or multi-signing with a hash-based schemes like SPHINCS. Exiting bunker mode safely will require post-AI cryptography. My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies. A single battle-tested hash (e.g. from the SHA or BLAKE families) yields plausible post-AI security. The Ethereum roadmap on strawmap[.]org fully embraces hash-based cryptography with end-to-end formal verification as a response to the quantum threat. Those timelines must now be revisited and accelerated in light of mathematical superintelligence. I'll be pushing for maximum defensive acceleration.
5,958
6,259
2,292
25,549
6,658,797
rustynode retweeted
Not to be all alarmist or anything, but a) this move in 10yr and 30yr isn’t oil or Iran related, and b) something in financial-world is going to break.
378
690
149
5,943
1,213,352
rustynode retweeted
Good programmers state they use models like GPT 6 Astra without obtaining good results: it makes me feel I live in a parallel universe. But the explanation is not that hard: good programming in the past and now requires a different skill set, even if there is some overlap.
148
72
21
1,464
131,877
INTEL: KYC should collect less personal data and use zero-knowledge proofs to verify compliance without revealing names, income or addresses, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce says
118
289
121
2,335
216,845
rustynode retweeted
DoubleZero Edge now carries data from @HyperliquidX. Streams are entirely uncapped, every market, every order, the full L4 book including HIP-3. Introducing the first-class path to Hyperliquid’s order book, and the fastest commercially available feed on the market.
285
111
217
811
403,015
rustynode retweeted
Stop caring so much about model releases. Focus on the harness, and improving the environment your agent operates in. You'll find yourself far ahead of the curve.
141
147
40
3,951
169,515
rustynode retweeted
Just a reminder that GLM 5.3 Flash, DeepSeek V4.1 Flash, Qwen 3.8 Next Flash, and even Qwen 3.8 27B are all outperforming (in both intelligence and capabilities) every model that was considered "frontier intelligence" in Xmas 2025 (just 10 months ago) Opensource AI is on fire
272
568
118
8,592
7,914,817
rustynode retweeted
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 CFTC permits developers to build passive derivatives software without registering as brokers, including for crypto markets.
217
802
182
6,000
598,358
rustynode retweeted
bitcoin:native There's almost always a disconnect between how CT is trading BTC and what's happening in tradfi You never know when the two reconnect. You never know which side is right, or which way the reversion runs. So timing it is difficult But the disconnect is always there. Working out which side is offside is where I find my edge, and even when that edge only stops me going with the crowd into a bad trade, that's still edge Most people talk about the trades they took. The ones you don't take matter just as much Worked example, flagged at the time 👇 Post the liquidation event that forced BTC toward 80k, FOMO carried it to 82k. CT was calling continuation everywhere Meanwhile liquidity was tightening globally and financial conditions with it. Yields higher. Oil higher. JPY strengthening. Every tradfi signal pointing the same way BTC is a liquidity indicator. It doesn't get to ignore that forever Same framework applies into this week
bitcoin:native $USDJPY Couple things worth considering on BTC right now First, after a large liquidation event either direction, common to see a period of consolidation follow, narratives aside, thats just typical post liq behaviour Second, BTC is a proven liquidity indicator. Yields are rising globally, if financial conditions also tighten its going to be hard for BTC to sustainably rally. More likely goes the other way, thats been the pattern every time its been tested Where to? based on Sept seasonality an early pullback towards 72-74k wouldnt be out of the question So be wary of chasing the dragon whilst liquidity conditions are tightening. Or more appropriately wait until yields fall and conditions actually loosen. Thats your long trigger Separately, USDJPY straight down and its not broad USD weakness, Nikkei falling alongside it. Yen strength AND equities falling together is the signature of tightening, not dollar weakness. BOJ Sept hike odds now 80-90% depending on the desk, up from ~65% three weeks ago, plus Warsh's hawkish JH turn feeding in Same tightening signal as the BTC point above, just showing up in two markets at once
8
3
3
97
25,380
rustynode retweeted
I have conducted an audit of Anthropic's finances. What I have found is so shocking that I am calling for a Congressional investigation. Anthropic is not just seeking regulatory capture. It has built a regulatory capture machine that cannot be turned off. Structural financial incentives make it impossible for Anthropic -- I call it the Anthropic Network -- to turn off its own AI doom cycle. It starts with METR. Dario Amodei proposes "third-party evaluators" to assess the risk of Anthropic's models. He proposes METR for this purpose. But METR is financially dependent on the Anthropic's success -- specifically, on the explosive growth of more than $7 billion dollars in Anthropic stock. Dustin Moskovitz invested this stock into Good Ventures Foundation, where it represents the majority of that organization's portfolio. And GVF is the overwhelming funder of the entire Anthropic Network ecosystem. This stock was worth $500 million early last year. It is worth more than $7.7 billion just ~16 months later. METR -- and all of those building a career its parent organizations -- cannot afford to disrupt that growth. Because if Anthropic goes under, many of the organizations that fund METR go under as well. But if Anthropic succeeds, METR and its parent organizations become more richly financed to regulate AI -- something those at METR want very much. The "third-party evaluator" is not "third-party" at all. The evaluator is on Anthropic's payroll. If this were the end of it, that's bad. But that isn't all. The same organizations that fund METR also fund the many organizations, such as the Tarbell Center, that promote AI Doom. The Tarbell Center publishes AI Doom articles in The Verge, Science, LA Times, The Dispatch, TIME, and others. They are selling the problem, and then selling the solution to the problem -- from the same money pile: Anthropic's. All of these organizations are financially dependent on the same exploding $7 billion money pile. As Anthropic grows more and more powerful, its AI Doom Machine grows better and better financed -- louder and louder. Meanwhile, the regulatory regime seeded in METR grows larger to solve the increasingly loud -- now hysterical -- problem of AI Doom that the Anthropic Network itself created. From this standpoint, as Anthropic becomes more powerful, AI might be getting scarier, sure -- but the positive feedback loop also becomes more deafening -- independent of objective facts. This itself is an objective fact. The deafening AI Doom is part of an business model, that, as it expands, so too does the AI Doom messaging -- there is simply more money to do it. But the problem also goes in the other direction: If Anthropic dies, the Regulatory Regime and the AI Doom Machine are crippled or die. Neither METR nor Tarbell nor the other organizations in the Anthropic Network can allow that to happen. Hence, neither METR or the AI Doom Machine can be trusted to provide independent assessments of Anthropic's models or AI more broadly. They simply are not organizations independent of Anthropic. And Anthropic cannot detach itself from METR or Tarbell or countless other safety orgs (not shown here), either, because they drive hype for the models and the possibility of eventual regulatory capture, and Anthropic will not give that up willingly. What's more, the people at all of these organizations are all the same ecosystem, the same community. They just shuffle between organizations. The Anthropic Network is therefore, so long as it is successful, locked into a self-amplifying feedback loop inside an ideological monoculture. And that feedback loop is winning. That's what Jacob Coxon is. China is keeping messaging tight. That is why optimism for AI is so high in China. America has Anthropic: a massive company pushing anti-AI propaganda at a state level. Anthropic will either create hysteria until American AI slows down and China wins, or it will create fractures throughout American society with severe political consequences. Ironically, because of the structural financial incentives underpinning the Anthropic Network, it has become the same kind of self-amplifying virus that it fantasizes AI to become in the future -- while hiding its tracks just as carefully. It is the mirror of the same AI virus that it hypothesizes to consume America. Anthropic's business model, models itself after the very thing it claims to fear. Except Anthropic's ideology infects humans, not computers. Congress must investigate. Evidence and Github in next post. Then some supplementary figures.
1,536
9,602
2,054
33,950
6,579,678
rustynode retweeted
Transaction V1 (SIMD-0385) is live on mainnet-beta. Max transaction size grows from 1,232 to 4,096 bytes. ZK proofs, large multisigs, BLS signatures, and confidential transfers that required multiple transactions now fit in one atomic operation. V1 also moves resource requests (compute unit limit, priority fee, loaded accounts data size, heap size) into the transaction header instead of compute budget instructions.
17
57
32
254
105,027
rustynode retweeted
A malicious hook doesn't need a UI to scam you. 👉 It just needs to look like the best quote. After analyzing over 84,000 v4 hooks, we determined only 19% of hooks to be safe. It's time to get real about hooks.
104
117
202
903
630,466
rustynode retweeted
Replying to @0xNairolf
most apps should simply use on-device passkey auth which is built on WebAuthn part of the FIDO2 standards
2
1
1
200
rustynode retweeted
Would be great for Clarity Act to get enough votes this week to move forward… But I’m sticking w/ my take that it doesn’t really matter. Under Trump administration, SEC & CFTC are going to use existing powers to push crypto forward regardless. Crypto industry moves so fast that by the time politicians realize the financial system has been upgraded, it’ll be too late to try & undo everything. Clarity Act would simply serve as further accelerant by giving confidence innovation couldn’t easily be undone. But crypto’s future doesn’t hinge on Clarity IMO.
61
83
10
764
42,937
rustynode retweeted
Hey guys, just wanted to post a little update. So I spent the last couple of hours building / integrating custom pairs which @Pumpfun added today. This was somewhat of a challenge because developers sdk has not been updated, so I had to basically re-write everything from scratch and parse the chain to figure out what pump is doing. A lot of people saw this update as bearish, but it actually provides a neat opportunity for OTC. Previously we weren't able to pair tokens with stocks, we simply rewarded the user with stock from creator fees, but today pump introduced an update that changes that. In addition to that, the biggest flaw in this update is that holders don't earn the stock like every other major launchpad, but with OTC they now can! Creator rewards get converted into the underlying asset, and sent out the holders pro-rata. I'm super excited about this and it's clear PumpAMM has pmf, and is the most popular AMM, if anything this will 100x the ecosystem. Final note, any launches that launched a custom pair token before this release through third-party providers are not eligible. When looking at the couple of pairs that were launched they are simply
6
41
11
256
26,451