
Forecasting enthusiast and serial hobbyist. Director of Forecasting at @Metaculus. Author of SEER. Formerly a bridge engineer.
Joined April 2016
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New image generation eval, making a good pumpkin carving template. Seems like they often fail at keeping parts from floating or being too thin.
The cake I made for my daughter's Lord of the Rings themed birthday party this weekend (which I was delighted about and we went all out for).
Ryan Beck retweeted
Last month GPT-6 Astra (@chatgpt) beat Montezuma's Revenge, and a lot of people declared that our "weakly general AI" question, originally launched in 2020, resolved.
But…it still hasn’t resolved.
We wanted to give everyone a quick update on where things actually stand and the steps we’re currently taking (cc @swishfever @joeykrug @emollick). 🧵
I made a tool that creates cheat sheets for Magic The Gathering mechanic definitions. Also has cool stats about how often different mechanics are present by set or format. ryanrobertbeck.com/mtg-cheat…
My daughter is playing in her first prerelease this weekend so this was motivated by helping her with some of the definitions that aren't defined on the card anymore and to familiarize with the other abilities, and thought it could be useful for others.
Also side note but just refreshed the personal website as well and I'm quite pleased with it. ryanrobertbeck.com/
Think about what we can accomplish if AI breaks us free from the shackles of PowerPoint. Flat text, charts that squash data down to two dimensions? How about every pitch is an immersive VR simulation of the value you'll experience when you receive the deliverable.
So much depends on whether the activities depicted here are supposed to be tedious busywork or acts of creative genius.
I’m cool with chic tennis mom automating her PowerPoint design so long as we all can agree to admit that PowerPoint was always kind of a soul-draining template farm for mid-level pseudo-creatives to lacquer over their shallow corporate platitudes with a brittle veneer of pretend artistry. If we can give up the act on that and stop pretending like Terry from marketing is some kind of visionary then sure, I’m glad she can get a bot to take over her daily laptop ritual so she has more time to spend on the court.
But then, the question arises of what she will do with her newly liberated free time that’s more intrinsically valuable than slide decks. Tennis forever? The most unsettling story thread in this is actually the guy using Chat to custom-build a rocket ship simulator. Empowered with practically limitless ways to engineer an hour or two of bespoke recreation, he comes up with takeout bulgogi and a video game that looks like he designed it in middle school computer lab using MS paint.
If we truly are about to liberate ourselves from the obligations of material necessity to a degree unprecedented in human history (big if!) it’s going to get REALLY important that we get clear on what kinds of activities are intrinsically worth the precious investment of our time and attention. Otherwise things are gonna get DARK.
What creeps me out about AI vendors is not that they want to sell us productivity tools but that they keep giving away with ads like this that they really, well and truly do not have a deep understanding of what kind of life we might like to live AFTER our productivity is well and truly maxxed. I just don’t think our utopians know what utopia looks like. They want paradise but have no vision of the good life.
Not to hop back on my hobby horse but all of this makes it a really, REALLY good time to study the liberal arts! If you want better answers to these questions…start there.
Ryan Beck retweeted
After continuing to be annoyed by how hard it is to get together with other busy people, I created an app to make it easier. It has a very easy scheduling interface, plus it can help you align on an activity to do (with some nifty voting options for the fellow nerds out there!)
After continuing to be annoyed by how hard it is to get together with other busy people, I created an app to make it easier. It has a very easy scheduling interface, plus it can help you align on an activity to do (with some nifty voting options for the fellow nerds out there!)
You can try it out here: useherder.com/
Making an account is optional, you can make an event without one. But making an account gives you a history of your events and lets you copy from a prior template with a click.
We need a Manhattan project to slow the Earth's rotation. The costs to pull it off will easily be paid off by efficiency savings from future generations no longer getting slightly tripped up by if 365 is days of the year or degrees of a circle. One day must equal one degree.
It would be nice if in addition to "not interested in this post" you could select "nobody should be interested in this post". There needs to be some signal that expresses "this post entered my visibility and it's actively bad for people's brains, stop showing it to people"
Ryan Beck retweeted
Whatever else you think of Lindsey, he's dead-on with this quote. Politics in DC is essentially the same as at the PTA meeting. Same people, same struggles, same political skills. Everyone trying their best but mostly making it up as they go. There are no wizards.
This is an amazing quote from Lindsey Graham about when he realized how politics works. theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0…
I wonder whether it will become normal for AI to polish everything we write online, much like autocorrect already fixes our spelling and punctuation.













