
General Partner Alpaca Real Estate 🦙@AlpacaVC Founder @Corigin_ Co-Founder @GoCoralCapital
New York, NY, US
Joined January 2014
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The idea of an intelligence explosion caused by recursive self improvement has been around for a long time but until very recently it did not seem imminent. Now many leading researchers think it may happen quite soon. You can read our paper about it here:
casp.ac/reports/intelligence…
It's a learned physics engine that doesn't rely on hand-written equations. Instead of calculating gravity, collision and friction from first principles, it has watched gravity, collision, and friction billions of times and learned the patterns. Marinate on that.....
notboring.co/p/world-models
Affordability is not complicated. It’s Supply vs Demand. Simple. It’s unfortunate the people who scream about affordability are the same ones that create the barriers to new supply. Make it easier to permit and build and prices will go down. The amount of cities I watch hold developers hostage for permit fees, impact studies and fees, archaic planning and plan review. Maybe elect business minded officials who understand this simple concept.
Here's something fascinating happening in the apartment market right now.
The cheapest, oldest apartments (Class C) are getting crushed right now.
But ONLY in cities that just delivered tons of new apartments.
Let me show you the numbers:
Denver: Class C rents down 13.9%
Naples: Class C rents down 13.5%
Austin: Class C rents down 13.3%
Phoenix: Class C rents down 10.5%
San Antonio: Class C rents down 7.2%
Dallas: Class C rents down 6.5%
What do all these cities have in common?
They just absorbed a massive wave of new apartments.
But here's the twist...
In cities that DIDN'T get a big supply wave?
Class C rents are actually RISING.
20 cities saw Class C rents go UP more than 3%.
19 of those 20 cities had supply BELOW the national average.
So what's going on?
It's basically musical chairs.
When a brand new luxury apartment opens up, where do those renters come from?
They don't appear out of thin air.
They move from slightly older apartments.
Those apartments now have vacancies. So they drop their rents to compete.
That pulls in renters from even older apartments.
And down the chain it goes.
Eventually it hits the oldest, cheapest apartments at the bottom.
And here's why they get hit the hardest:
People living in Class C apartments are already spending a huge chunk of their paycheck on rent.
To fill empty units, landlords have to cut prices A LOT.
Sometimes enough to attract people who couldn't afford market-rate apartments before.
It's like a waterfall effect.
The water (new supply) at the top pushes everything down.
But here's the important part:
This proves that building new apartments - even "luxury" ones - reduces rents all the way down the spectrum.
If it was just an affordability crisis, you'd see Class C rents falling everywhere.
In high-supply cities AND low-supply cities.
But we're not seeing that.
We're seeing a perfect split:
Lots of new apartments = falling Class C rents
Few new apartments = rising Class C rents
New supply at the top creates relief at the bottom.
Also: wages have been growing faster than rents for 3 straight years.
More people can afford apartments today than before.
The bottom line?
This is what happens when you actually build housing.
Supply works.
(Chart and analysis from Jay Parsons - one of the sharpest real estate economists out there)
Ryan Freedman 🦙 retweeted
👋 We’ve been working on something new & we’re finally ready to let people play with it. It’s an “app for AirPods” called BeeBot – think of it like a social city guide emceed by an AI-powered radio DJ. I wrote a giant blog post (manifesto!) about it here: dens.medium.com/say-hello-to…
Ryan Freedman 🦙 retweeted
This is the wildest attack ad I’ve ever seen in politics. Andrew Cuomo pulling out all the stops.
I didn’t know you could tweet from jail. @Diddy give us an update before @DOGE cuts funding for criminals to share their philosophies on life.
This is so cool. Octopus have convinced fish they prey on to help them hunt for other fish and when they don’t listen they punch them. apple.news/A99qFlpXXR6aXyQ5F…
Game changer….World’s First Window Cleaning Robot Reports to New York City Skyscraper Transforming the Industry Globally | Business Wire businesswire.com/news/home/2…
Ryan Freedman 🦙 retweeted
This overview of the gun emoji throughout the last decade says so, so much about the last decade, without actually saying anything.
Ryan Freedman 🦙 retweeted
Congrats @intramotev + team on the news of your Series A via @axios! We're proud to be on the journey with you as you change the future of rail 🦙🚆🎉
axios.com/pro/climate-deals/…
Ryan Freedman 🦙 retweeted
Could you (or your portfolio companies) use a 30-50% savings on your Cloud bill?
Welcome to the @alpacavc🦙 Herd, North.Cloud.
Excited to partner with @biringer_ and @AcoineY in their journey to leverage AI to optimize cloud spend. Read more in our blog post:
alpaca.vc/2024/08/welcome-to…
Ryan Freedman 🦙 retweeted
If Starship manages to make it all the way to reentry, we'll collect valuable data on reentry at hypersonic speeds, or more than 5 times the speed of sound
Such a simple concept that is often lost in our business. You will only be worth what the public markets will pay.
Replying to @JasonrShuman
It's important that every Founder know that every round that you raise, the closer you get to public markets...
And the closer you get to public markets, the more your valuation needs to match the reality of how public investors will think about the company.
Interesting discussion on realtors, MLS and the broken 6% commission structure. @prevurealestate has been giving value back to the buyers for years. Time for the system to catch-up.
As one of the first investors in Compass, I have always been a proponent of a great customer experience for the homebuyer, but more importantly it's time to focus on giving value back to the buyer.
@prevurealestate has done incredible job doing both.
techcrunch.com/2023/12/14/pr…
This bastion of free speech at all costs has turned off comments. You can’t make this stuff up. #resign
Ryan Freedman 🦙 retweeted
Coming to Miami for #ArtBasel? @alpacavc is excited to host WellTech in Motion, celebrating innovation around health and wellness. Great people, content, product demos, a padel tournament, and (because Miami), a party.
🧵
alpaca.vc/welltech-in-motion…
Finding that most founders prefer you tell them how great they are and it isn't the right fit for us as a firm instead of having the opportunity to get some real transparent feedback. #notgreat














