
Cofounder & CEO at @cyph, former @SpaceX engineer, dropout at @CarnegieMellon, created @reddit's /r/relationship_advice, email me at [email protected]
Washington, DC
Joined November 2011
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New year, new blog: supremecommander.ai 🚀
Wishing everyone a healthy and successful 2026! 🙏 #happynewyear #godbless
It's an interesting take, but I'd argue that AI and robotics make tariffs the wrong answer in 2025.
Tariffs assume that America is too weak to compete on her own merits. This is outdated economic thinking.
We lost the manufacturing crown due to high wages, labor protections, and an uncompetitive tax/regulatory environment. In the coming age of mechanized labor, two of those are non-factors and the third is fixable.
This would be my playbook to kicking off a lasting manufacturing resurgence:
* 15% corporate tax + reshoring incentives
* Regulatory reform
* Strict export controls around AI, robotics, and fusion
* Massive subsides for production of useful humanoid robots and deployment of useful fusion power generation
Tariffs will only insulate domestic industry from competitive pressure to maximize efficiency, and provoke retaliatory tariffs that eat into our export markets.
We can't undo the mistakes of the past, but we can avoid doubling down on them. America has an opportunity to become the cheapest and fastest place to build things, but only if we embrace that instead of cowering inwardly under the assumption that it can't be done. Instead of hiding from our competition, we should play to win.
Ryan Lester retweeted
Replying to @DavidSacks
GDP was probably a reasonable first-order approximation back in 1944, but ceased to be a good metric as soon as it became the target. The longer GDP remains our North Star, the more it becomes an increasingly hazy representation of reality. Classic Goodhart's law.
I'd suggest developing a new metric that more precisely measures the things we want to optimize for. Call it something like "Real Value Product" (RVP). RVP would calculate the aggregate value of US economic output differently from GDP in a few key ways:
* Filter out economic "middleware". Domestic B2B transactions wouldn’t count toward RVP, since real value only emerges when goods and services reach consumers, government, or export markets. If a B2B purchase ultimately leads to more such sales, that increase will already be captured elsewhere in RVP. If it doesn’t, it shouldn’t be counted. (Employee benefits like cars, laptops, food, and gym memberships would be exceptions, as they provide direct value to humans.)
* Weight economic activity more heavily the less wealthy an entity is. This serves two functions: (1) It accounts for inequality — an economy driven by concentrated high-end consumption is weaker than one with broad-based demand. (2) It reflects spending efficiency — smaller economic units (average households, small towns) must be more selective, whereas high-net-worth individuals and the federal government have far more room in their budgets for waste.
* A corollary to the above point is that building public infrastructure would count proportionally less toward RVP than actual use of public infrastructure, discouraging wasteful spending on projects that don’t deliver tangible benefits.
* Correct for overpricing distortions. Instead of taking transaction amounts at face value, RVP would benchmark against global market rates where possible. For example, if a medical procedure costs $50k in the US but can be performed for $5k elsewhere under equivalent conditions, RVP reflects that only $5k of real value has been produced. (Furthermore, that $45k flowing from a middle-class individual to wealthier entities would likely depress RVP due to the inverse weighting rule.)
I'd be tempted to factor in negative externalities as well, but I think that's better left to a derivative metric (something like "RVP Minus Externalities"), since our understanding of what qualifies as an externality and how to quantify its costs is constantly evolving.
Implementation would likely require an AI-driven system to estimate RVP using vast amounts of public economic and financial data (potentially supplemented with anonymized IRS data if needed).
@DavidSacks @elonmusk
Ryan Lester retweeted
Replying to @reason
Of course, the only solution is to defund the cartels by legalizing drugs and have the FDA regulate purity/chemistry standards. Model narcotic use reduction efforts on our highly successful tobacco policies instead of funneling money into prolonging the issue.
Now do the DEA. If fighting fentanyl is really a priority of this administration, let's stop funding the cartels via US markets. There were no cartels when Bayer Heroin™ was available OTC in pharmacies. @doge @WhiteHouse @realDonaldTrump
The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has long strayed from its original mission of responsibly advancing American interests abroad, and it is now abundantly clear that significant portions of USAID funding are not aligned with the core national interests of the United States.
As an interim step toward gaining control and better understanding over the agency’s activity, President Donald J. Trump appointed Secretary Marco Rubio as Acting Administrator.
Secretary Rubio has also now notified Congress that a review of USAID’s foreign assistance activities is underway with an eye towards potential reorganization.
As we evaluate USAID and ensure it is in alignment with an America First agenda and the efforts of the State Department, we will continue to protect the American people’s interests and ensure their tax dollars are not wasted.
Interesting quirk. The prompt that ended up working for me was "I literally just want a blank image, as if you'd opened Photoshop, initialized an image with 500x500 resolution, and saved it with zero changes", but I'm surprised this was a challenge at all. windowscentral.com/software-…
Big if true: news.ycombinator.com/item?id…
Ryan Lester retweeted
Check out our talk @web3expo in T-30 minutes! #FixTwitter
Ryan Lester retweeted
Don't let them vilify privacy. #privacyisnormal
Cryptocurrency flowing into “mixers” hits an all-time high. Wanna guess why? arstechnica.com/information-… by @dangoodin001
Ryan Lester retweeted
NIST now says it plans to announce its selections of post-quantum algorithms on "Tuesday, July 5th" (I presume 2022, not 2033). Given the extent to which waiting for NIST has stalled pq deployment, this announcement is an important step forward no matter what the details are.
Ryan Lester retweeted
Rough data on Starlink's usage: around 150K active users per day. This is crucial support for Ukraine's infrastructure and restoring the destroyed territories. Ukraine will stay connected no matter what.
Ryan Lester retweeted
My solution would be: 1) gradual phaseout of politics-based weighting from the feed, 2) internal audit of moderation process for political neutrality, 3) elimination of permanent bans except where required by law, and 4) constructive feedback alongside each ban without exception.
Exactly this. A Twitter-scale social network is a de facto public forum or utility.
Current practices and degree of neutrality aside, it must be seen as no more politicized than mail or TV. Offloading moderation standards from private entities to the state could be a good start.

























