Chased by the shadows - it's me Nothing ever satisfies me Gold in my hand - only rust The only constant is me, and me I can't trust
Budapest
Joined June 2008
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space monkey retweeted
Governments do not create wealth. They redistribute it. When an ever-growing percentage of economic output is devoted to servicing debt and funding government promises, productivity slows, innovation weakens, and long-term growth inevitably declines. Eventually the economy begins working for the government instead of the government working for the economy.
space monkey retweeted
The Keynesian school argues that deficits stimulate growth because government spending increases demand.
That theory ignores one critical fact. Borrowed money is not free money. Every dollar the government borrows must ultimately come from the productive sector of the economy, whether through taxation, inflation, or borrowing that competes with private investment.
space monkey retweeted
We thought we were getting a TACO
"Trump Always Chickens Out"
But so far we are getting a NACHO
"Not A Chance Hormuz Opens"
(With appreciation to the trader who told me)
space monkey retweeted
Before the war, the world was producing about 100M barrels of oil a day, and consuming about 100M barrels of oil a day.
Now the world is producing somewhere between 85M and 90M barrels of oil a day. That means somebody has to stop consuming 10M to 15M barrels of oil a day. Economists call this demand destruction.
The market has a very efficient way to get to this reduced level of demand, it raises the price forcing marginal buyers to stop consuming oil.
But if government subsidize the current high price of oil, the demand does not change and the market price has to go higher in order to get that demand destruction.
I’m all in favor of lower oil prices like everybody else, but we’ve got a supply demand imbalance that needs to be brought into equilibrium.
So either open the Strait so we can get back to 100M of oil a day, or figure out another way to tell the equivalent of 10m to 15M barrels of oil a day that they cannot go to the gas station to fill up their car.
space monkey retweeted
This is Gábor Iványi, a Hungarian Methodist pastor, social activist, and public figure. He is the leader of the Hungarian Evangelical Fellowship and the founder of the Oltalom Charity Association.
For decades, he has worked with homeless people, the poor, refugees, and others in need, and he operates a network of social institutions. He baptized the children of Viktor Orbán, but they later fell out politically, and Orbán came close to ruining him completely.
Gábor Iványi and his organization, particularly the Hungarian Evangelical Fellowship, have been actively involved in providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine, especially after the 2022 Russian invasion.
His brother, Miklós Iványi, who is also a pastor, frequently travels to Ukraine with fully loaded aid shipments, delivering essential supplies directly to communities affected by the war, including areas hosting internally displaced people.
Ukraine, we are your friends. ❤️
space monkey retweeted
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has just called to congratulate us on our victory.
space monkey retweeted
Orban is the first politician in history to get election interference help from both CIA and SVR.
Mindblowing.
space monkey retweeted
It's going to be an interesting day for sure when the typical American suddenly realizes that when Al Jubail is burned down, the supply chain of lubricants will collapse. And when the lubricants collapse, then trucks don't run and forklifts don't fork. And when forklifts don't fork and trucks don't truck, there's not going to be much food that appears on grocery store shelves.
And at that moment all those who have been mindlessly cheering for war on Iran will seize up and begin to ask themselves, "What have I done?"
You've fucked yourself is what you've done. You've ALREADY fucked yourself, because these events are being set into motion right now, but you just don't know how badly you've fucked yourself because the fucking is delayed by global logistics and shipping timelines.
It won't be long, however, before the self-fucking arrives, and people who know absolutely nothing about lubricants, grease, transportation, engine oil, supply chain logistics and the Al Jubail industrial city will suddenly discover just how fucked they really are.
space monkey retweeted
To be truly fluent in English,
you must know your shits
Dogshit: Very poor quality
Bullshit: Not true
Horseshit: Nonsense
Apeshit: Rambunctious
Batshit: Insane
Chickenshit: Cowards
Ratshit: Poor quality
No shit: Obviously
Holy shit: Unbelievable
Hot shit: Very good
Dipshit: Total dumbass
Tuff shit: Take it or leave it.
Jack shit: Nothing
The shit: Perfection
space monkey retweeted
I have been in the weeds of oil market modeling for over 10 years. I thought it was a stupid skill to learn. What the fuck do you gain by learning how to model oil market balances?
Well, it seems like it’s coming in a bit handy now.
To the uninformed observer, the largest oil market deficits in history have only ever reached ~3 million b/d.
Here’s a fun fact: Q4 2018 balances was widely considered to be one of the tightest quarters in history. What was the deficit? 1.6 million b/d.
Yes, 1.6 million b/d. Oil markets have never had a deficit larger than 3 million b/d.
In 2022? Markets started pricing in a structural 2 million b/d deficit, oil spiked, and equity markets sold off.
Now? People are talking about sustained 5 million b/d deficit as somehow being manageable?
No. That’s not how the oil market works. Because oil is traded on the margin, that last barrel would push prices to the extreme. We are eating into onshore oil inventories now, the market is still asleep.
space monkey retweeted
Elections in Hungary are a global challenge for Russia.
The fight for Viktor Orban's victory is a true existential politial war for Russia. Orban's defeat would mean losing control over Central and Eastern Europe for Russia. That would mean to breaking up the construct Russia has spent years building. If Orban remains in power, Russia would be able to influence negotiations both with the EU and US, including negotiations about Ukraine.
Thus, Russian political strategists and Russian special services, equipped with Russian money, will do anything they can to provide victory for Orban. Their actions are directed at changing the dynamics of the elections race - according to polls, opposition Tisza party is ahead of the currently leading Fidesz party. Looks like the closer to election day, the more dangerous their actions and methods will become.
Election day in Hungary is exactly one week from now, on April 12.
space monkey retweeted
Dumb people are impressed by complexity.
Smart people are impressed by simplicity.
space monkey retweeted
Human stomach pH is indeed ~1.5 (fasting baseline), matching scavengers like vultures (~1.2-1.3) and hyenas (very low, bone-crushing). Herbivores: sheep ~4.7, horse ~4.4, gorilla-like primates ~4-5. Carnivores vary (dogs/wolves/lions often 1.5-2.5 in key studies, though some data show higher averages).
The assumption holds: per Beasley et al. (2015), human acidity is scavenger-like, evolved mainly as a pathogen filter for carrion/high-risk meat—not salad digestion. Ancestors handled dead/available food to survive.