
#RepBX #BillsMafia #BigBlue #AlwaysKnicks | NBA 🏀 | MLB ⚾️ | NFL 🏈 | | 2023 +212u | 2024 +99u | 2025 +62u | https://teapawt.org/t.co/IOr8xPsp16
Joined November 2013
- Tweets3.8K
- Following757
- Followers1.5K
- Likes8.5K
🚨 ANNOUNCEMENT 🚨
Introducing Sacs University 🗽
Tonight I’ll officially be launching on @Winible 📚
winible.com/sacstim
This is not a MANDATORY PAID PREMIUM rather a platform where I offer a FREE subscription which allows everyone access to my *Signals* and *Writeups* while having another platform to grow my space even further
NOTHING will change on my X / Twitter page I will still be posting here for FREE but the last weeks have been a prime example of how valuable Line Movement can be 📈
Anyone subscribed for FREE on Winible will have access to my *Signals* and *Writeups* well before Twitter / X but the best part is
ALL PLAYS can be send via
📲 TEXT and 📧 EMAIL if opted in rather waiting potentially hours for my plays here
I spend an insane amount of time throughout the day on my page ensuring every write up is accurate and aesthetically pleasing to anyone who comes across all WITHOUT a Paywall backing me
In the future if I do decide to go Premium those services will be offered at Winible as well and anyone who had already subscribed to the FREE signals will be eligible for potential Free Trials, Discounts, Promos, and etc
Once again I remain dedicated to Transparency NOTHING at all will change with my FREE content here
Thank You to everyone who’s followed up to this point I’m looking forward to building an even larger community full of profitable bettors 🤝
There is a PREMIUM section but is NOT MANDATORY to access all my FREE content it is simply there as a future option
NFL Sunday Week 8 Play #7 🏈
Detroit Lions -3 Spread
( -112 #DraftKings ) #OnePride
Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs have no injury designation as they were simply given a day of rest since then have logged B2B FULL practices
Kyler Murray isn’t good since his return in Week 3 he ranks second to last in Success Rate and 7th lowest in EPA/Play meanwhile Goff ranks Top 6 in EPA/Play and Success Rate
The offense has struggled with the defense doing all the heavy lifting in this case this “crazy” defense that blitzes on 73.9% of drop backs
Goff against the Blitz ranks 4th in Completion%, Tied 1st with ZERO Interceptions this season
Over the L2 seasons Goff has a 16-0 TD to INT ratio and leads the league in EPA per Dropback against the blitz
Not only that but the Lions have the #1 ranked offensive line with the Vikings ranking bottom half
This Vikings team is undefeated but the competition they’ve faced just isn’t worth the hype. The only half decent team they’ve faced is the Packers where Jordan love torched that secondary for 387 yards with a non existent run game
Colts? Saints? Dolphins? Bucs and Bears with backup QBs?
Yeah no this Detroit team is getting healthy and they’ve been an absolute juggernaut when playing at Ford Field they already cashed us out for our first 1.5u play of the season this one is no different
NFL Sunday Week 8 Play #6 🏈
Lamar Jackson o24.5 Rushing Yards
( -112 #DraftKings ) #RavensFlock
Bills vs Ravens we expect cinema every time Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson share the field
Lamar has been dealing with a high ankle sprain missing the L3 weeks. Week 7 logged 3 consecutive limited practices but ultimately decided to get healthy and skip another week against the weak Bengals for their superbowl matchup vs the Bills
Since then has logged 3 straight FULL practices and obvious has no injury designation
Over 24.5 Rushing Yards in 5/5 matchups vs the Bills when Josh Allen is QB, both these guys are constantly trying to outdo each other. Over the L2 years in those cinema matchups Lamar has logged 54, 39, and 70 rushing yards
Henry has been gashing the Bills front in matchups it’ll overload the front allowing Lamar to have that RPO
It’s been said by Lamar he still feels pain when he plants his foot but it’s manageable/bearable now has 2 more days to rest up. His legs are his biggest weapons don’t think he won’t run if lanes are open
NFL Sunday Week 8 Play #5 🏈
Brock Bowers o5.5 Receptions
( -138 FanDuel ) #RaiderNation
Limited Wednesday then had B2B FULL practices he’s good to go with no injury designation
Anytime Brock Bowers is on the field he’s the 1st read every time the guy can play wideout, in the slot or RB if he wanted to he’s not normal and by far the best TE in the league
Just put up 6 receptions against the best TE defense in the Rams
Outside of his first game of the season where there was limitation concerns Bowers has opened at O/U 6.5 EVERY game sorry this is simply too low I don’t care about matchups he’s him
Jets lose David Bailey this week he’s been the most impactful player by far LEADING in QB Pressures, Sacks, QB Hits, and tackles for loss. Jets cannot blitz at that Top 6 rate like they’ve been doing without him
A clean pocket for Kirk Cousins is all that’s needed he’s still balling out the Raiders defense is what costs them games
Just lost all that value closed at -160 and all the ladders had positive cash out options
11+ Potentials can we get a random regrade on that final shot and change it to a pass thanks @nbastats
Also just lost Giannis u0.5 3PTM. He decided to shoot a step back 3 contested and banked it. Foot was on the line can we get another regrade thanks
NBA Cup Play of The Day 💎🏀
Tyrese Maxey o4.5 Assists
( -108 CZRs ) #ThrowTheBallUp
🪜 6+ ( +177 DK ) 🪜 7+ ( +341 DK )
Jaylen Brown just got downgraded DOUBTFUL ‼️
14 potentials and 76 passes made in season opener converting just 5 assists at MSG
Knicks have allowed the 3rd Highest Opponent Assisted Buckets which benefits guys like Maxey who look to finish drives where Knicks have been sending help forcing kick outs and others to shoot
Knicks defensively have struggled forcing the 2nd lowest turnovers meanwhile the 76ers have forced the 7th most creating fast break opportunities where Maxey benefits now without another primary ball handler in Brown
Opened o4.5 at -136 during that opener now we get a lower line where adjustments are gonna take place and it starts with Maxey eliminating his ability to drive to the rim
I like buying on this type of passing volume. Amongst the Top 10 players in the league who have 60+ passes made and 80+ passes received per game ALL see 10+ Potentials except for Maxey at 9.6 this number is bound to come up the other 9 players are averaging above 12 potentials
NBA Cup so point differential matters and we know Maxey of all players has the ultimate upside of 40+ minutes in these types of matches so volume isn’t the worry here it’s the conversion rates
Washington Wizards ML ✅✅
( -113 NOVIG ) #ForTheDistrict
First play posted inside Winible last night bangs with ease. Anthony Davis & Trae Young feasted can’t believe this line moved down 🤝
16 - 3 start to the NBASZN 🔥
NFL Sunday Week 8 Play #3 & #4 🏈
Evan Engram o2.5 Receptions ( +116 )
Evan Engram o20.5 Rec Yards ( -114 )
#ChiefsKingdom vs #BroncosCountry
Honestly bumps should be fine to play they but getting this line at +money is criminal against the TE funnel Chiefs
To start off Broncos have ruled OUT RJ Harvey who is the check down machine for Bo Nix. That vacates a 14.1% Target share. Jaylen Waddle was DNP Wednesday then Limited Thursday and Friday putting him a true questionable for the game if he’s ruled out that vacates 23.2% of targets
Chiefs have been a funnel for TEs allowing the 2nd highest Targets and Receptions to TEs over expected
The run defense has remained strong ranking 6th lowest in EPA allowed and Bottom 10 in Yards Per Game, Success Rate, and Yards Per Carry all over expected. This should force Nix to throw on 2nd and 3rd downs
No coincidence Engram in season opener saw 5 targets and hauled in 4 receptions for 43 yards with a long of 19 yards
0.57 YPRR against Man and that number doubles to 1.18 YPRR against Zone because Engram is that guy open in the flat who Bo Nix can almost check it down to as he already hates throwing downfield
Has ran 53.6% of routes this season by far the highest amongst the entire TE room and 58% come from the Inline where Chiefs rank 31st against
7/8 TEs who have faced the Chiefs are o2.5 receptions with the only miss being Adam Trautman who plays TE2 behind Engram so technically all TE1 have covered
Projected as underdogs which leaves us with a passing script late into the 2H I’m all in here for Engram to be Bo Nix’s safety target
I knew volume would be there my concern was the conversation rates as mentioned
4 potentials in the first quarter would like to see buckets start to drop
NBA Cup Play of The Day 💎🏀
Tyrese Maxey o4.5 Assists
( -108 CZRs ) #ThrowTheBallUp
🪜 6+ ( +177 DK ) 🪜 7+ ( +341 DK )
Jaylen Brown just got downgraded DOUBTFUL ‼️
14 potentials and 76 passes made in season opener converting just 5 assists at MSG
Knicks have allowed the 3rd Highest Opponent Assisted Buckets which benefits guys like Maxey who look to finish drives where Knicks have been sending help forcing kick outs and others to shoot
Knicks defensively have struggled forcing the 2nd lowest turnovers meanwhile the 76ers have forced the 7th most creating fast break opportunities where Maxey benefits now without another primary ball handler in Brown
Opened o4.5 at -136 during that opener now we get a lower line where adjustments are gonna take place and it starts with Maxey eliminating his ability to drive to the rim
I like buying on this type of passing volume. Amongst the Top 10 players in the league who have 60+ passes made and 80+ passes received per game ALL see 10+ Potentials except for Maxey at 9.6 this number is bound to come up the other 9 players are averaging above 12 potentials
NBA Cup so point differential matters and we know Maxey of all players has the ultimate upside of 40+ minutes in these types of matches so volume isn’t the worry here it’s the conversion rates
NBA Cup Play of The Day 💎🏀
Tyrese Maxey o4.5 Assists
( -108 CZRs ) #ThrowTheBallUp
🪜 6+ ( +177 DK ) 🪜 7+ ( +341 DK )
Jaylen Brown just got downgraded DOUBTFUL ‼️
14 potentials and 76 passes made in season opener converting just 5 assists at MSG
Knicks have allowed the 3rd Highest Opponent Assisted Buckets which benefits guys like Maxey who look to finish drives where Knicks have been sending help forcing kick outs and others to shoot
Knicks defensively have struggled forcing the 2nd lowest turnovers meanwhile the 76ers have forced the 7th most creating fast break opportunities where Maxey benefits now without another primary ball handler in Brown
Opened o4.5 at -136 during that opener now we get a lower line where adjustments are gonna take place and it starts with Maxey eliminating his ability to drive to the rim
I like buying on this type of passing volume. Amongst the Top 10 players in the league who have 60+ passes made and 80+ passes received per game ALL see 10+ Potentials except for Maxey at 9.6 this number is bound to come up the other 9 players are averaging above 12 potentials
NBA Cup so point differential matters and we know Maxey of all players has the ultimate upside of 40+ minutes in these types of matches so volume isn’t the worry here it’s the conversion rates
Everyone inside Winible grabbed this early line for FREE. Multiple plays for today inside and the rest of my NFL Week 8 plays ⬇️
🔗 Winible.com/sacstim
Looking back at this now I’m curious if Jaylen Brown sits this NBA Cup
game out to balance out LeBron James and Joel Embiid who will likely sit tomorrows B2B as they’ll likely see increased minutes tonight
Hmmm I already took a 76ers play it could benefit
NFL Sunday Week 8 Play #2 🏈
Chase Brown o53.5 Rushing Yards
( -109 #DraftKings )
🪜 70+ Rushing Yards #WhoDey
( +202 #DraftKings )
First ladder of the season it’s do or die for Chase Brown
Titans just traded star tackle Jeffery Simmons leaving an already struggling titans defense inna bigger hole
Ranks Top 10 over expected in YPC, Explosive Rate, Success Rate, Yards Per Game, and Rush EPA allowed
Brown is still seeing volume despite production dip with his snap rate climbing back to 75% against the Ravens. 3.5 YPC isn’t bad at all but sure as heck will improve with more volume. Film from that Ravens game was encouraging his cutbacks have lead to more yards expected
Of course everyone knows historically Brown has been a second half fantasy demon
2024 -
Weeks 1 - 7 - 11.2 PPG ( RB30 )
Weeks 8 - 18 - 19.6 PPG ( RB6 )
2025 -
Weeks 1 - 7 - 10.1 PPG ( RB34 )
Weeks 8 - 18 - 21.2 PPG ( RB3 )
Bengals come in as double digit favorites with the 3rd highest team total bringing a positive run script he’s so due for that first 15+ yard run
NFL Sunday Week 8 Play #1 🏈
Ladd McConkey o3.5 Receptions
( -114 FanDuel ) #BoltUp
❤️ if you’re tailing I got more coming ⚡️
Over Receiving Yards should be a better pivot with Receptions moving to juice
Chargers coming off their bye week I have to think Jim Harbaugh and Mike McDaniel have figured out at least a game plan to get Herbert going with easy completions instead of having him play hero ball
I don’t expect them to win against the Rams which makes this line that much better as we’ll have a passing script late into the game
Ladd has dealt with multiple injuries this season with him leaving last game with a concussion but since has practiced in FULL back to back days and obviously the bye week beforehand so he’s healthy ready to go with no limitations
Healthy Ladd sees O/U 4.5 majority of the time and in the 3 games he’s been healthy outside of Seahawks and Chiefs he’s totaled
5 - 7 - 82
3 - 3 - 35
4 - 5 - 68
Quentin Johnston is healthy who will play wideout drawing the McDuffie matchup meanwhile Tre’ Harris is potentially back with him limited in practice b2b days so that’ll give majority of slot snaps to Ladd
Ladd generates separation better than most in the flat and in intermediate yardage from 10 to 19 yards the Rams rank 20th in Yards Per Target and that’s where Ladd has seen majority of his production
Essentially a home game as both teams share SoFi Stadium
This line at this price is a must I’m buying low here he’s gotta build that trade value for when the Chargers sell him because it’s inevitable
Just like that the 2026 MLB season comes to an end. The 148 day countdown to 2027 Opening Day starts now I’m already excited ngl
🏦 MLBSZN ‘26 | 186 - 133 ( +44.24u )
Ended the season below my expectations of +50u but 67.38% of bets beating CLV that was my best work. Two week slump back in the summer set me back but I kept with it and here we are with a winning season overall
With that being said let’s end 2026 strong with NFL and NBA
Bam Adebayo u1.5 3PTM ✅✅
( -122 #DraftKings ) #HeatNation
15 - 1 start to the NBASZN 🔥
Just insanely sharp Bam attempted just ONE three pointer 🔪
NBA Wednesday Play #1 🏀
Bam Adebayo u1.5 3PTM
( -125 FanDuel ) #HeatNation
13 - 1 start to the NBASZN 🔥
Miami Heat are struggling there is change coming and I’m betting that starts with Bam who simply hasn’t played with enough urgency
He’s shooting 16.7% from deep on 18 attempts which has strayed away from his play style of being the aggressive big man
As highlighted by @fcpnba here’s what Erik Spoelstra had to say ⬇️
Erik Spoelstra: “We want to get him in spots where he can be aggressive, and I need to do a better job with that. He needs to find also areas and pockets in the game where he can be aggressive in random situations.”
Obviously this starts with him moving around the formation instead of sitting in corners waiting for a deep shot so I’m expecting 2 - 3 attempts from deep at most and with him shooting just 16.7% I don’t see him covering
This Hawks team has really good perimeter length as well they’ve allowed the 6th Lowest 3PT% meanwhile allowing the 6th Highest 2PT%
Look for Bam to get aggressive in the paint I think we all tired of him sitting in corners
First losing day of the season not bad at all it was bound to come
Bam was a great play glad that came through
Davis was frustrating he just didn’t show enough effort in those paint shots
Jokic played a great game shot 61.5% and had 13 boards. Zero points in the 4th quarter I thought we would cover with take fouls














