@sam_learner

graphics journalist @ftdata @ft visual storytelling team

 Brooklyn, NY
samlearner.com/
Joined July 2009
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  • Following2.1K
  • Followers2.5K
And here are those small donor surges again, now with September small-donor data for the Harris campaign
A chart titled "Democratic fundraising has been surging since Harris entered the race, while Trump's grassroots momentum has slowed" with the subtitle "Daily contributions to Harris and Trump-affiliated Pacs through ActBlue/WinRed grassroots fundraising platforms". It shows contributions to Harris and Trump-affiliated Pacs in 2023 and through June/July 2024. There is a gradual increase in the number of daily contributions over time, but a large spike for the Trump campaign around his felony conviction and an even larger spike for the Harris campaign in its first couple of days. Harris sees two more large spikes during the summer in August, aligning with the announcement of Tim Walz as her VP selection and the last night of the Democratic National Convention

ALT A chart titled "Democratic fundraising has been surging since Harris entered the race, while Trump's grassroots momentum has slowed" with the subtitle "Daily contributions to Harris and Trump-affiliated Pacs through ActBlue/WinRed grassroots fundraising platforms". It shows contributions to Harris and Trump-affiliated Pacs in 2023 and through June/July 2024. There is a gradual increase in the number of daily contributions over time, but a large spike for the Trump campaign around his felony conviction and an even larger spike for the Harris campaign in its first couple of days. Harris sees two more large spikes during the summer in August, aligning with the announcement of Tim Walz as her VP selection and the last night of the Democratic National Convention

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An update on those numbers from last week, w/ @arogDC The Harris 2024 campaign* attracted contributions from more unique donors through Sept than Biden 2020 did for the entire cycle Story: on.ft.com/3Nzlmmc *Including period when Biden was at the top of the ticket
A chart titled "Dems have attracted more small donors than their 2020 campaign while Trump lags behind last cycle" with the subtitle "Cumulative unique donors by date of first contribution, 2020 and 2024 election cycles". It shows the pace that each of the 2020 and 2024 campaigns have attracted new donors. Trump's 2024 campaign, initially behind its 2020 pace, caught up in June but has since lagged behind again. Biden's 2024 campaign had fallen behind its 2020 pace, but after Kamala Harris took over at the top of the ticket, 1.5mn new donors were added within 11 days and the momentum has kept up since then, bringing the total through September to 5.7mn donors, well ahead of the 2020 pace of either campaign.

ALT A chart titled "Dems have attracted more small donors than their 2020 campaign while Trump lags behind last cycle" with the subtitle "Cumulative unique donors by date of first contribution, 2020 and 2024 election cycles". It shows the pace that each of the 2020 and 2024 campaigns have attracted new donors. Trump's 2024 campaign, initially behind its 2020 pace, caught up in June but has since lagged behind again. Biden's 2024 campaign had fallen behind its 2020 pace, but after Kamala Harris took over at the top of the ticket, 1.5mn new donors were added within 11 days and the momentum has kept up since then, bringing the total through September to 5.7mn donors, well ahead of the 2020 pace of either campaign.

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The bettor's surge of activity has corresponded with a dramatic rise in Trump's odds. On some days, they've accounted for 20% of all trading on Polymarket's main election market on.ft.com/3YsgXaI
A chart titled "Trump's odds on Polymarket have risen in tandem with heavy activity by a small group of traders" showing that a high volume of trading by four large traders correlates with Trump's share price rising to more than 60% odds of an election victory

ALT A chart titled "Trump's odds on Polymarket have risen in tandem with heavy activity by a small group of traders" showing that a high volume of trading by four large traders correlates with Trump's share price rising to more than 60% odds of an election victory

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While polling has remained relatively steady for weeks, this activity has created a growing divergence between prediction market prices election models on.ft.com/3YsgXaI
A chart titled "Trump's odds on prediction markets have diverged from other models" showing that the average odds implied by prediction markets have diverged from popular election models since the start of September when they were relatively in-line

ALT A chart titled "Trump's odds on prediction markets have diverged from other models" showing that the average odds implied by prediction markets have diverged from popular election models since the start of September when they were relatively in-line

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Trump had previously seen large fundraising spikes after his indictments late last year and his felony convictions in May. Since then, his momentum with small donors has slowed as Harris has seen historically large spikes
A chart titled "Democratic fundraising has been surging since Harris entered the race, while Trump's grassroots momentum has slowed" with the subtitle "Daily contributions to Harris and Trump-affiliated Pacs through ActBlue/WinRed grassroots fundraising platforms". It shows contributions to Harris and Trump-affiliated Pacs in 2023 and through June/July 2024. There is a gradual increase in the number of daily contributions over time, but a large spike for the Trump campaign around his felony conviction and an even larger spike for the Harris campaign in its first couple of days. Harris sees two more large spikes during the summer in August, aligning with the announcement of Tim Walz as her VP selection and the last night of the Democratic National Convention. Trump has not seen as large/meaningful spikes during the summer, though there are smaller spikes after the assassination attempt in Butler, PA and around the Harris/Trump debate

ALT A chart titled "Democratic fundraising has been surging since Harris entered the race, while Trump's grassroots momentum has slowed" with the subtitle "Daily contributions to Harris and Trump-affiliated Pacs through ActBlue/WinRed grassroots fundraising platforms". It shows contributions to Harris and Trump-affiliated Pacs in 2023 and through June/July 2024. There is a gradual increase in the number of daily contributions over time, but a large spike for the Trump campaign around his felony conviction and an even larger spike for the Harris campaign in its first couple of days. Harris sees two more large spikes during the summer in August, aligning with the announcement of Tim Walz as her VP selection and the last night of the Democratic National Convention. Trump has not seen as large/meaningful spikes during the summer, though there are smaller spikes after the assassination attempt in Butler, PA and around the Harris/Trump debate

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NEW: Harris massively out-fundraised Trump in Q3, as he struggled with grassroots donors, in particular. She's on pace to surge past the 2020 Biden campaign, in both total fundraising and number of unique donors on.ft.com/3Npys5o w/ @arogDC
A chart titled "Harris is on pace to attract more small donors than Biden's 2020 campaign while Trump lags behind last cycle" with the subtitle "Cumulative unique donors by date of first contribution, 2020 and 2024 election cycles". It shows the pace that each of the 2020 and 2024 campaigns have attracted new donors. Trump's 2024 campaign, initially behind its 2020 pace, caught up in June but has since lagged behind again. Biden's 2024 campaign had fallen behind its 2020 pace, but after Kamala Harris took over at the top of the ticket, 1.5mn new donors were added within 11 days and the momentum has kept up since then, bringing the total through August to 4.76mn donors, well ahead of the 2020 pace of either campaign.

ALT A chart titled "Harris is on pace to attract more small donors than Biden's 2020 campaign while Trump lags behind last cycle" with the subtitle "Cumulative unique donors by date of first contribution, 2020 and 2024 election cycles". It shows the pace that each of the 2020 and 2024 campaigns have attracted new donors. Trump's 2024 campaign, initially behind its 2020 pace, caught up in June but has since lagged behind again. Biden's 2024 campaign had fallen behind its 2020 pace, but after Kamala Harris took over at the top of the ticket, 1.5mn new donors were added within 11 days and the momentum has kept up since then, bringing the total through August to 4.76mn donors, well ahead of the 2020 pace of either campaign.

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We've run this game for a little over a week and have just over 170k submissions! The leading entry at the moment, which wins about 72% of its matchups, looks like this: [link to the game here: ig.ft.com/us-election-game/]
A screenshot from the FT US election game, showing a distribution of 26 credits on Pennsylvania, 24 credits on Georgia, 3 credits on North Carolina, 3 credits on Michigan, 1 credit on Arizona, 20 credits on Wisconsin, 12 credits on Nevada, 1 credit on New Hampshire and no credits on Maine or Nebraska's second congressional district

ALT A screenshot from the FT US election game, showing a distribution of 26 credits on Pennsylvania, 24 credits on Georgia, 3 credits on North Carolina, 3 credits on Michigan, 1 credit on Arizona, 20 credits on Wisconsin, 12 credits on Nevada, 1 credit on New Hampshire and no credits on Maine or Nebraska's second congressional district

Sam Learner@sam_learner26 Sep 2024
Yesterday, we put out our US election game, a "blotto" game that aims to explain some of the decision-making process of presidential candidates competing to win the electoral college You can check it out and compete against other readers here [FREE]: ft.com/us-election-game

Can you mastermind a US presidential campaign?

Compete for the White House against other readers in the Election Game

ig.ft.com
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That's a lot of pennies!
A picture of the Statue of Liberty

ALT A picture of the Statue of Liberty

Sam Learner@sam_learner15 Apr 2023
Wrote a little about why it makes more sense than ever for the US to stop making pennies: enterprise-sharing.ft.com/re… Featuring every penny produced since 2011, at scale next to the statue of liberty
A visual titled “Every year the US produces billions of pennies — enough to almost fill the Statue of Liberty” with the subhed “Volume of pennies produced since 2011, at 0.35ml per coin, at scale next to the Statue of Liberty”. It shows the volume of pennies produced each year by the treasury, in a 3D view, next to the statue of liberty. The largest of the bars, from 2015 is roughly the same volume as the statue. And while the volume decreases slightly in the years since, all of the bars are in the same range, roughly half the volume to the full volume of the statue.

ALT A visual titled “Every year the US produces billions of pennies — enough to almost fill the Statue of Liberty” with the subhed “Volume of pennies produced since 2011, at 0.35ml per coin, at scale next to the Statue of Liberty”. It shows the volume of pennies produced each year by the treasury, in a 3D view, next to the statue of liberty. The largest of the bars, from 2015 is roughly the same volume as the statue. And while the volume decreases slightly in the years since, all of the bars are in the same range, roughly half the volume to the full volume of the statue.

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Replying to @throwaway362948
Why are you so sure of that? There's a lot of churn between precincts in these big metros. In just 2022, ~15% of people in DeKalb county had changed residences in the last year. Doesn't feel crazy that churn like that every year could account for a chunk of that swing
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The Harris campaign's July fundraising surge, by the numbers on.ft.com/3YRsd12 w/ @arogDC
A chart titled "The Harris campaign’s July fundraising surge surpassed Trump’s largest spike" with the subtitle "Daily contributions to Harris and Trump-affiliated Pacs through ActBlue/WinRed grassroots fundraising platforms". It shows contributions to Harris and Trump-affiliated Pacs in 2023 and through June/July 2024. There is a gradual increase in the number of daily contributions over time, but a large spike for the Trump campaign around his felony conviction and an even larger spike for the Harris campaign in its first couple of days.

ALT A chart titled "The Harris campaign’s July fundraising surge surpassed Trump’s largest spike" with the subtitle "Daily contributions to Harris and Trump-affiliated Pacs through ActBlue/WinRed grassroots fundraising platforms". It shows contributions to Harris and Trump-affiliated Pacs in 2023 and through June/July 2024. There is a gradual increase in the number of daily contributions over time, but a large spike for the Trump campaign around his felony conviction and an even larger spike for the Harris campaign in its first couple of days.

A chart titled "The number of new donors to the Harris campaign in July is unprecedented over the past two campaign cycles" with the subtitle "Cumulative unique donors by date of first contribution, 2020 and 2024 election cycles". It shows the pace that each of the 2020 and 2024 campaigns have attracted new donors. Trump's 2024 campaign, initially behind its 2020 pace has caught up. Biden's 2024 campaign had fallen behind its 2020 pace, but after Kamala Harris took over at the top of the ticket, 1.5mn new donors were added within 11 days, brining the total through July to 3.56mn donors, well ahead of the 2020 pace of either campaign.

ALT A chart titled "The number of new donors to the Harris campaign in July is unprecedented over the past two campaign cycles" with the subtitle "Cumulative unique donors by date of first contribution, 2020 and 2024 election cycles". It shows the pace that each of the 2020 and 2024 campaigns have attracted new donors. Trump's 2024 campaign, initially behind its 2020 pace has caught up. Biden's 2024 campaign had fallen behind its 2020 pace, but after Kamala Harris took over at the top of the ticket, 1.5mn new donors were added within 11 days, brining the total through July to 3.56mn donors, well ahead of the 2020 pace of either campaign.

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Need to meet these six Harris/Sheehy voters
Crosstabs from an Emerson poll in Montana showing six voters who indicated they would vote for Kamala Harris in the presidential election that said they would vote for Tim Sheehy in the Senate race (it also shows 54 Donald Trump/Jon Tester voters, which is a much more expected ticket split)

ALT Crosstabs from an Emerson poll in Montana showing six voters who indicated they would vote for Kamala Harris in the presidential election that said they would vote for Tim Sheehy in the Senate race (it also shows 54 Donald Trump/Jon Tester voters, which is a much more expected ticket split)

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