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Not a good decision. It is at times like these that counterbalancing narratives are needed on this platform. Why cede public spaces?
Samrat Chowdhery retweeted
IRAN'S DANGEROUS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY:
Tomorrow marks the Israeli elections that seem to have significant potential to unseat Bibi Netanyahu. After this, on November 3rd, comes the U.S. midterm elections…
There is EXACTLY a week between these two elections, and this is Iran’s opportunity to maximize their strategic positioning before a likely return to war between all sides.
Iran doesn’t want to significantly escalate BEFORE the Israeli elections, because this would give Netanyahu an excuse to escalate and potentially go so far as to cancel the Israeli elections altogether. Just from re-launching the war against Iran, particularly if he has a thinly-veiled “legitimate” excuse to do so, he will experience a rallying around the flag in Israel that would likely help him in the elections.
Iran doesn’t want to help Netanyahu.
But then there is a week before the U.S. elections… Israel has already held their own, so there is no longer a rationale for them to preemptively strike at Iran knowing full well that this would HURT Trump in the midterms, and realistically speaking… Trump may be the last TRULY Israel-first president Tel Aviv gets in Washington. They don’t want to sink him at the midterms for no reason.
And simultaneously, President Trump is DESPERATE to avoid anything that could possibly spike oil, gas, and diesel prices. And he CERTAINLY doesn’t want to bring the disastrous Iran War back to the top of the headlines right before America casts their votes that could turn Trump into a lame duck president.
So from October 27th to November 3rd…
Iran has a SERIOUS window to basically take free rein over the Middle East, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and Persian Gulf… Oh, and that so-called “Omani Route” as well…
This is where Iran may seek to employ actions that many people are surprised they have not throughout the course of October.
Perhaps one of the most likely courses of action they may take is attempting to re-mine the Omani Route. Again, think of this from the Iranian perspective. This is… basically the ONLY way that the United States has been able to survive up to this point. And sure, they COULD launch strikes against these vessels… but would they? REALLY? And what happens if Iran then uses that as an excuse to escalate further, bringing oil and headlines with it?
Beyond this, it is likely that Iran may look to disrupt the Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfer point. If they WANTED to… Iran could almost certainly sink DOZENS of vessels that are conducting transfers and waiting for partner vessels here.
In addition, we have ALREADY seen Iran significantly expand the scope of their vessel targeting to include not just vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz under US air cover, but the FAR more easy to hit targets of vessels anchored in ports in the Persian Gulf, as well as vessels in the Gulf of Oman (but not the STS point).
This is the concern. Before the Israeli elections, Iran didn’t want to escalate significantly because any resumption or excuse to resume war would be greatly beneficial to Netanyahu. Something Iran certainly does not want. But then until the US Midterms on November 3rd, Trump would flip a LID if Israel launched preemptive strikes against Iran, and in parallel, Trump will DESPERATELY want to avoid any significant swings in the global energy markets, and will want to keep the Iran War as far from the headlines as physically possible.
This week-long stretch is Iran’s single best opportunity they will ever have to shift the strategic landscape as far in their favor as possible to prepare for a potential resumption of war that seems almost unavoidable at this point.
Samrat Chowdhery retweeted
EXCLUSIVE: India’s biggest news publishers including Ambani's Network18, Adani's NDTV, Indian Express, Times Internet & others mount the most high-profile challenge yet to Modi’s privacy law, warning it would “render investigative journalism a benign and neutered recorder of events.”
DNPA (@publishers_news) has taken the law to the Supreme Court. They argue it would trample investigative work and let New Delhi identify journalists’ sources.
The provisions “constitute pre-censorship which is anathema to any democracy worth its name,” the group’s 698-page filing says.
The key concerns:
🔹 Consent: requiring a journalist to notify the subject of an investigation and seek consent “would allow that subject to destroy evidence, intimidate witnesses”
🔹 Erasure: people can withdraw consent and demand their data be erased, which the group says could force publishers to unpublish or heavily redact news reports
🔹 Sources: a “nakedly unguided” power to demand information that “can extend to privileged communications in possession of a reporter or the informant”
In a letter to the government, the group said India “has chosen to grant broad exemptions to the state, while failing to extend any corresponding protection to the press.”
reuters.com/business/media-t…
Strangest effort at defence coupling I've seen: Poland trains Pakistan's military while India still relies heavily on Russian arms. Two long shadows to walk out of before there can be any meaningful engagement.
Lula beats Trump, Bolsonarismo and halts LatAm's hard-right wave. Win for China, Amazon and climate action, BRICS and multilaterism. #Brazil
Based on current polling and prediction markets, Netanyahu is statistically more unlikely than likely to secure premiership in Israel's Oct 27 election. However both frontrunners Eisenkot and Bennett appear likely to maintain a hardline security posture.
Explosive story: Dutch intel hacked Jared Kushner's phone and found that in Trump's first term when MBS and MBZ were still friends, he received $700mn from them while reshaping US Middle East policy.
vanityfair.com/story/jared-k…
Musk calls Ambani the PM of India, then Rubio lands in India, skips Delhi and the state establishment, and goes straight to meet Ambani. No connection?
IE investigation finds Bihar's liquor ban has made things much worse by creating a massive narcotics trade. India's vape ban is heading down the same path, mirroring the 'zombie vapes' market unfolding in Taiwan.
@PMOIndia @JPNadda @kharge @NITIAayog
indianexpress.com/article/ex…
Global security is no longer ensured by superpowers. Israel is stepping further out of line by threatening Turkey and practising strikes on Iran. The US is withdrawing ambassadors from Saudi because it can't guarantee their safety from Houthis – the American security umbrella is crumbling. In Ukraine, a Starlink malfunction caused its drones to fall from the sky. Aggressive middle powers, local groups and private companies are filling the void left by US retreat.
Tail is wagging the dog: War-driven energy shock has become an inflation and election problem in the US as inflation jumped to 3.7% in September. Wages aren’t keeping up. Brent is around $105. Iran & Houthis are still escalating, driving rate-hike bets and US midterm politics.
Musk's push to get a stacom licence in India has gone from looking like trade lobbying to US bullying after what is happening with Starlink in Ukraine. India's licence terms should include continuity and no-unilateral-cutoff clauses.
Piyush Goyal says the first tranche of India-US trade deal is finalised. ET says Trump may decide on 100% Russia-oil tariffs in 10 days. Delhi wants something signed before the penalty arrives. Smart sequencing, but a trade text doesn't protect you from a sanctions law. #IndiaUS
US leverage is evaporating. Kyiv is defying Washington's truce to hit Russian refineries, Saudi Patriot batteries are failing, and China is opening North Korean trade bridges and Laotian airbases. Even the AI moat is leaking to espionage. The unipolar bluff is getting called.
The author argues this heavy-handed response shows Modi is losing his grip. By relying on state coercion instead of political engagement, the government is alienating moderate voters.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/10/14…
India’s opening to foreign capital is going through middle powers, while the US relationship has shrunk to energy and visas. Canada’s Fairfax buys IDBI Bank for ₹52,878 cr, Japanese and Gulf banks keep buying Indian lenders, and Washington tightens H-1B rules.
Hindu exclusive: will create more opposition to SIR.
Muslims made up 13.6%
of Delhi’s 97.54 lakh draft-
roll electors but 20.3% of
the 19.33 lakh flagged for
“logical discrepancies”.




