Investor writing on substack https://xitter.cf/t.co/2zXN9c79Lt
Joined April 2014
- Tweets196
- Following94
- Followers286
- Likes332
1/4 $RMS: we are not there yet. Fair value = €1,000/share.
Q3 sales growth of +4% cFX. On this trajectory investors should expect near-term operating deleverage (slightly buffered by stronger Leather performance). After a few years of over-earning, margins will mean-revert...
3/4 This isn’t a judgement on the long-term quality of the franchise. But it does mean more near-term weakness.
Notes on $RMS and how Asian currencies influence luxury spending linked below 👇
This isn’t a judgement on the long-term quality of the franchise, which is world class with management investing for the long term. But it does mean cont. near-term weakness.
Notes on $RMS and how Asian currencies influence luxury spending linked below 👇
Interesting scoop released recently about inter-family disputes and certain Brown family members being dissatisfied with management and the board of Brown-Forman. $BF
wsj.com/business/retail/brow…
A good reminder of just how powerful incentives can be, as I wrote last year:
“Brown-Forman’s shareholders should be unhappy with how the CEO is remunerated…
…CEO comp has grown at a 17% cagr 2020-25, while the stock price is -14% a year and...
...operational/post-growth FCFPS is -3%/-8% a year. For an analyst with concerns over cash management and sustainable investment levels, the KPIs do not provide reassurance; Whiting would get paid more if marketing investment was cut.”
sectorstories.substack.com/p…
Sector Stories retweeted
Special episode on Global Cinema Stocks
Julian Robertson was known to pit bullish analysts against bearish analysts to battle each others' arguments publicly.
So today, we'll try to recreate that experience, by playing devil's advocate against each other, this discussing the global cinema industry:
✅ BULL: Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
❌ BEAR: Hugo Navarro (Undervalued & Undercovered)
We discuss:
• Hugo's background
• The threat from streaming
• Why today's movies suck
• The impact of AI
• Why cinemas are the new airports
• The parallel to live concerts
• How the exclusivity window creates a "buzz"
• How smartphones won the attention game
Highlights:
01:46 Introduction to Hugo
03:22 Cinemas have survived many shifts (Michael)
05:06 Attendance is clearly down (Hugo)
10:08 With better movies, sales will go up (Michael)
11:39 Home cinemas cheap, same experience (Hugo)
13:53 Cinemas are a great date option (Michael)
14:26 People don't date anymore anyway (Hugo)
15:46 Netflix/Amazon now opting for cinemas (Michael)
17:15 Studios have bad incentives: milking IP (Hugo)
20:51 Cinemas create buzz that's unparalleled (Michael)
22:57 Cinemas = airports: captive audiences (Michael)
23:57 Cinema chains are commodity services (Hugo)
28:25 We treasure shared experiences (Michael)
29:57 But the experience isn't all that good (Hugo)
33:00 It's become really expensive in Europe (Hugo)
34:44 Smartphone usage already plateaued (Michael)
35:47 Smartphones can not be used in cinemas (Hugo)
37:58 Exclusivity window is lengthening again (Michael)
40:29 Cinemas not part of the zeitgeist anymore (Hugo)
42:01 Conclusion
Asian Century Stocks: asiancenturystocks.com/
Undervalued & Undercovered: smallcaptreasures.substack.c…
Disclaimer: asiancenturystocks.com/discl…
Sector Stories retweeted
A new post is online discussing some aspects of Fundsmith's controversial 6M letter:
valueandopportunity.com/2026…
Also on the Stsck.
