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There’s a 16% EV Dabble play on Selene right now
We’ve been posting a lot about prediction markets, market makers, and sportsbooks
But don’t forget that Selene also has a DFS optimizer complete with its own auto slip builder
The auto builder will automatically build the best profitable slips for you with just the click of a button
It account for the optimal number of legs, whether the play should be insured or not, and tells you the EV and exact bet sizing
In case the Dabble slip bumps, I’ve included an 8% EV variation as well
You asked for it, it’s finally here
Today Selene is launching our brand new DFS package
If you’re a sports bettor who focuses exclusively on DFS, this is for you. Now you can get all our fantasy tools at just $48 a month
• Fantasy Optimizer
• Auto Slip Builder
• Optimal slip types
• DFS line history
• Recommended bet size
And the best part?
Same discounts still apply: 7-day FREE trial and your first 2 months half off with code SELENE
Sign up now @ SeleneOdds.com
Right now, a Kalshi market maker is trying to get down MILLIONS of dollars on NFL middles
But you can get the same middles on DraftKings, Onyx Odds, or Courtside, for an even better price
Not only that, both sides of the middle are +EV, and the cumulative EV of each middle could be 10% or more
We’re seeing MULTIPLE of these
A market maker on Kalshi is putting up millions of dollars currently as direct arbs to the odds DK has. Who do you trust more, an institutional Kalshi market maker or a billion dollar odds provider powering DK?
The bets in question are spreads, and not only is each bet an arb to DK, the market maker is offering both sides of spread of multiple games. If you take both sides of the spread on DK that are arbs to Kalshi, you will have a middle, which is basically even more +EV
X only let us include screenshots of a couple of these middles, but there are way more on Selene's Maker Radar
Read on if you want to learn what the bets are and how the middles work- let’s get into it
Throughout the day, Selene’s Maker Radar has flagged over 6 NFL games and counting where Kalshi’s odds are a direct arbitrage to what’s being offered on DK. Onyx Odds and Courtside use the same odds provider too, so Kalshi’s prices are arbs to them as well
We’ll go over some examples, but first let’s describe some of what we’re seeing
One of the most important parts of trading is knowing who your counterparty is, and what makes this example interesting is you can be 99% sure that the market maker disagreeing with DK on all of these markets is the same person. Why? Because each of the trades carries a couple very similar characteristics:
1. The arbs are on NFL spreads
2. On each trade, the market maker is trying to get down ~$260K
3. The price on Kalshi is the same for half of these trades, 8.5%
That tells us the market maker is running the same model for each market, which is why its giving them the same sizing and pricing for the spread in different games
In the first screenshot, we see that Kalshi is letting you wager up to $24,104 on the Falcons -13.5 spread at +1070 odds. That means the market maker is trying to get down $258K on the other side, Bengals +13.5 at -1070 odds.
DraftKings is offering you -1020 on the Bengals +13.5
If you were to bet both sides, it’d be a 0.38% ROI arb with a guaranteed $4.46 profit for every $100 placed on Kalshi. But arbing between DK and Kalshi isn’t the play here, because the market maker is telling us that the spread on both teams is +EV, and we should take both for a middle
A middle basically means you have two bets that guarantee at least one of those bets will win, while also giving you the possibility of having both bets win
For example, the Falcons +9.5 and Bengals +13.5, both of which the market maker is trying to get down on and both on DraftKings at better odds. As long as the Falcons win by 13 points or less, or the Bengals win by 9 points or less, we would win both plays
Let’s say each spread bet is 2% EV. If we take two spreads, thats 4% in EV. Now if both those spreads form a middle, that could be an additional 2-8% EV on top. These are 10% EV plays here
These middle bets are occurring on the Browns vs Saints, Broncos vs Panthers, Texans vs Chargers, and thats just what we’ve caught while occasionally checking Selene throughout the day
So when you do the math and expand it out, the market maker is trying to get filled for $260K on each spread market, multiple spreads per game, and multiple NFL games. That comes out to millions of dollars being deployed
With that much liquidity behind them, the market maker has to be an HFT firm like SIG or one of the top syndicates
Update: it’s still going on today
teapawt.org/seleneodds/status/2118…
FYI the Kalshi market maker is disagreeing with DraftKings on even more spreads today
There’s still MILLIONS of dollars that the market maker is trying to get down and the spreads from yesterday are still available
It looks like DraftKings odds provider is on an island, and they provide the odds for Onyx Odds and Courtside too
Selene is showing entire ladders on Kalshi that are arbitrage trades to DraftKings, as well as the spreads for more games popping up like the Rams vs. Commanders, Texans vs. Chargers, and Cowboys vs. the Colts
There’s literally double digits of these spreads available where Kalshi is disagreeing with DK to the order of $260K on each of them
The signals for these are strong, so let’s talk about each of them:
1. When you look at it from a simple positive EV betting perspective, we can safely assume DK’s odds are off because they can be devigged to several sharp books besides Kalshi and still come out positive EV. When devigged to Pinnacle, Novig, Polymarket, even FanDuel, the results all come out +EV
2. The arbitrage percent to Kalshi is 1-2% for a lot of these plays. This means if you decide to take both sides, on Kalshi and DK, you would lock in a guaranteed 2% profit. Arguably this is the strongest signal that someone is off on their pricing, because arbitrage opportunities are literally free money, which is why they’re rare
3. The market is trending upwards in one direction, with all the sharp books following Kalshi meaning they agree with their prices, while DK, Onyx, and Courtside are the only books moving down in the opposite direction. Its basically their model against everyone else’s
We’re also seeing more interesting stuff going on in these markets, like automatic refillers on Kalshi, but that’s a post for another time
For now, we just know that DK’s odds provider is on an island by themselves and it’s been days since they’ve made a move towards the market
For a major sport like NFL, it’s rare that a large odds maker won’t update their lines for so long and leave these kinds of arbs available
Do they know something the market doesn’t?
FYI the Kalshi market maker is disagreeing with DraftKings on even more spreads today
There’s still MILLIONS of dollars that the market maker is trying to get down and the spreads from yesterday are still available
It looks like DraftKings odds provider is on an island, and they provide the odds for Onyx Odds and Courtside too
Selene is showing entire ladders on Kalshi that are arbitrage trades to DraftKings, as well as the spreads for more games popping up like the Rams vs. Commanders, Texans vs. Chargers, and Cowboys vs. the Colts
There’s literally double digits of these spreads available where Kalshi is disagreeing with DK to the order of $260K on each of them
The signals for these are strong, so let’s talk about each of them:
1. When you look at it from a simple positive EV betting perspective, we can safely assume DK’s odds are off because they can be devigged to several sharp books besides Kalshi and still come out positive EV. When devigged to Pinnacle, Novig, Polymarket, even FanDuel, the results all come out +EV
2. The arbitrage percent to Kalshi is 1-2% for a lot of these plays. This means if you decide to take both sides, on Kalshi and DK, you would lock in a guaranteed 2% profit. Arguably this is the strongest signal that someone is off on their pricing, because arbitrage opportunities are literally free money, which is why they’re rare
3. The market is trending upwards in one direction, with all the sharp books following Kalshi meaning they agree with their prices, while DK, Onyx, and Courtside are the only books moving down in the opposite direction. Its basically their model against everyone else’s
We’re also seeing more interesting stuff going on in these markets, like automatic refillers on Kalshi, but that’s a post for another time
For now, we just know that DK’s odds provider is on an island by themselves and it’s been days since they’ve made a move towards the market
For a major sport like NFL, it’s rare that a large odds maker won’t update their lines for so long and leave these kinds of arbs available
Do they know something the market doesn’t?
Right now, a Kalshi market maker is trying to get down MILLIONS of dollars on NFL middles
But you can get the same middles on DraftKings, Onyx Odds, or Courtside, for an even better price
Not only that, both sides of the middle are +EV, and the cumulative EV of each middle could be 10% or more
We’re seeing MULTIPLE of these
A market maker on Kalshi is putting up millions of dollars currently as direct arbs to the odds DK has. Who do you trust more, an institutional Kalshi market maker or a billion dollar odds provider powering DK?
The bets in question are spreads, and not only is each bet an arb to DK, the market maker is offering both sides of spread of multiple games. If you take both sides of the spread on DK that are arbs to Kalshi, you will have a middle, which is basically even more +EV
X only let us include screenshots of a couple of these middles, but there are way more on Selene's Maker Radar
Read on if you want to learn what the bets are and how the middles work- let’s get into it
Throughout the day, Selene’s Maker Radar has flagged over 6 NFL games and counting where Kalshi’s odds are a direct arbitrage to what’s being offered on DK. Onyx Odds and Courtside use the same odds provider too, so Kalshi’s prices are arbs to them as well
We’ll go over some examples, but first let’s describe some of what we’re seeing
One of the most important parts of trading is knowing who your counterparty is, and what makes this example interesting is you can be 99% sure that the market maker disagreeing with DK on all of these markets is the same person. Why? Because each of the trades carries a couple very similar characteristics:
1. The arbs are on NFL spreads
2. On each trade, the market maker is trying to get down ~$260K
3. The price on Kalshi is the same for half of these trades, 8.5%
That tells us the market maker is running the same model for each market, which is why its giving them the same sizing and pricing for the spread in different games
In the first screenshot, we see that Kalshi is letting you wager up to $24,104 on the Falcons -13.5 spread at +1070 odds. That means the market maker is trying to get down $258K on the other side, Bengals +13.5 at -1070 odds.
DraftKings is offering you -1020 on the Bengals +13.5
If you were to bet both sides, it’d be a 0.38% ROI arb with a guaranteed $4.46 profit for every $100 placed on Kalshi. But arbing between DK and Kalshi isn’t the play here, because the market maker is telling us that the spread on both teams is +EV, and we should take both for a middle
A middle basically means you have two bets that guarantee at least one of those bets will win, while also giving you the possibility of having both bets win
For example, the Falcons +9.5 and Bengals +13.5, both of which the market maker is trying to get down on and both on DraftKings at better odds. As long as the Falcons win by 13 points or less, or the Bengals win by 9 points or less, we would win both plays
Let’s say each spread bet is 2% EV. If we take two spreads, thats 4% in EV. Now if both those spreads form a middle, that could be an additional 2-8% EV on top. These are 10% EV plays here
These middle bets are occurring on the Browns vs Saints, Broncos vs Panthers, Texans vs Chargers, and thats just what we’ve caught while occasionally checking Selene throughout the day
So when you do the math and expand it out, the market maker is trying to get filled for $260K on each spread market, multiple spreads per game, and multiple NFL games. That comes out to millions of dollars being deployed
With that much liquidity behind them, the market maker has to be an HFT firm like SIG or one of the top syndicates
You asked for it, it’s finally here
Today Selene is launching our brand new DFS package
If you’re a sports bettor who focuses exclusively on DFS, this is for you. Now you can get all our fantasy tools at just $48 a month
• Fantasy Optimizer
• Auto Slip Builder
• Optimal slip types
• DFS line history
• Recommended bet size
And the best part?
Same discounts still apply: 7-day FREE trial and your first 2 months half off with code SELENE
Sign up now @ SeleneOdds.com
What a time to be alive
NBA has been off to a steaming start 🔥 (+ another ~13k off Pikkit)
And now we also have CBB starting 🏀
What a time to be using @SeleneOdds 🤝
This is terrifying
There’s HUNDREDS of basketball games today
First day of men’s college basketball, and there’s 183 NCAAB games and 13 NBA games
Plus another 40 NCAAW games…
You can use Selene’s line shopper to browse all the odds for every game, and we have hundreds of positive EV bets right now on our Value Feed and Maker Radar
I can’t believe this is what sold me out of $8,000 yesterday 😒
THIS IS WHAT NBA NEPOTISM LOOKS LIKE.
With 2:28 remaining, the Lakers led Toronto 122-107. The game was effectively over.
Enter Bronny James.
His next 1 minute and 44 seconds:
0 points.
0 rebounds.
0 assists.
1 turnover.
MINUS 11.
Suddenly, a 15-point lead was down to FIVE.
JJ Redick had to send Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves, and Walker Kessler BACK onto the floor to rescue a game they had already checked out of.
Watch the video. The level of basketball being played here is absolutely embarrassing.
An NBA roster spot is supposed to be earned through talent and performance. How much longer are we supposed to pretend Bronny James has demonstrated that he belongs on this floor?
LeBron's greatness doesn't automatically transfer to his son.
The longer this charade continues, the more embarrassing it becomes for the Lakers, the NBA, and LeBron's legacy.
This is professional basketball. Start treating it that way.
Anotha one
teapawt.org/seleneodds/status/2116…
We’ve got more October winners
Sports betting really can be that easy, even on prediction markets
If you want to see what Selene can do for your PnL, we’re offering 7-day FREE trials @ SeleneOdds.com
Use code SELENE for 50% off your first 2 months
Don’t listen to the haters @AlexBetssss, I got a +231 LOCK that you’re going to love
And it’s got some serious MOMENTUM and steam behind it too 😎
Available on DraftKings and Onyx Odds
This just in for STALE LINES
New York Knicks, -122
Available on Courtside, and also DraftKings and Onyx at -125
Hit the moneyline on all three, and after you’re done, the Knicks -1.5 spread at -115 is also good
Sorry LeBron, but we’re going to need the 76ers to lose tonight
Fun fact: did you know Onyx Odds and Courtside are both mirrors of DraftKings?
That means their odds are the exact same as DraftKings
So if you’re limited on DraftKings, you can go straight to Onyx or Courtside to get your bets in, and Onyx especially has high limits
Save this tip for the next time you can’t get down enough on DraftKings
You’ve heard about DraftKings and Onyx, but did you know Bally Bet and BetRivers are also mirrors?
Just like DK and Onyx, Bally Bet and BetRivers share the exact same odds for a lot of their plays
We did a data pull on our backend and 93% of their odds are the same
What’s the reason? Well they actually both share the same odds provider, Kambi
In fact, most sportsbooks don’t build their own models and odds engines in-house. Instead, they outsource to a third party provider that feeds them lines and prices
It’s the same reason why DraftKings, Onyx, and Courtside all have the same lines. Kambi is one such odds provider, and in this case they’re the ones Bally’s and BetRivers are using
If you go to Kambi’s website, you might even find another major sportsbook using them also..
So if you’re limited on either Ballys or BetRivers, go check out the other the next time you need to get more money down
Fun fact: did you know Onyx Odds and Courtside are both mirrors of DraftKings?
That means their odds are the exact same as DraftKings
So if you’re limited on DraftKings, you can go straight to Onyx or Courtside to get your bets in, and Onyx especially has high limits
Save this tip for the next time you can’t get down enough on DraftKings
Apparently he just cashed his 3rd 6-man pick this week
On PrizePicks again
He can’t keep getting away with this 😭
