Winning

FYI if you’re limited on Bookmaker, check your account again They updated their UI today and now all of the markets that they took away before are back Now we can bet on player props, team props, everything you could want Guess it’s time to redeposit

Right now, a Kalshi market maker is trying to get down MILLIONS of dollars on NFL middles But you can get the same middles on DraftKings, Onyx Odds, or Courtside, for an even better price Not only that, both sides of the middle are +EV, and the cumulative EV of each middle could be 10% or more We’re seeing MULTIPLE of these A market maker on Kalshi is putting up millions of dollars currently as direct arbs to the odds DK has. Who do you trust more, an institutional Kalshi market maker or a billion dollar odds provider powering DK? The bets in question are spreads, and not only is each bet an arb to DK, the market maker is offering both sides of spread of multiple games. If you take both sides of the spread on DK that are arbs to Kalshi, you will have a middle, which is basically even more +EV X only let us include screenshots of a couple of these middles, but there are way more on Selene's Maker Radar Read on if you want to learn what the bets are and how the middles work- let’s get into it Throughout the day, Selene’s Maker Radar has flagged over 6 NFL games and counting where Kalshi’s odds are a direct arbitrage to what’s being offered on DK. Onyx Odds and Courtside use the same odds provider too, so Kalshi’s prices are arbs to them as well We’ll go over some examples, but first let’s describe some of what we’re seeing One of the most important parts of trading is knowing who your counterparty is, and what makes this example interesting is you can be 99% sure that the market maker disagreeing with DK on all of these markets is the same person. Why? Because each of the trades carries a couple very similar characteristics: 1. The arbs are on NFL spreads 2. On each trade, the market maker is trying to get down ~$260K 3. The price on Kalshi is the same for half of these trades, 8.5% That tells us the market maker is running the same model for each market, which is why its giving them the same sizing and pricing for the spread in different games In the first screenshot, we see that Kalshi is letting you wager up to $24,104 on the Falcons -13.5 spread at +1070 odds. That means the market maker is trying to get down $258K on the other side, Bengals +13.5 at -1070 odds. DraftKings is offering you -1020 on the Bengals +13.5 If you were to bet both sides, it’d be a 0.38% ROI arb with a guaranteed $4.46 profit for every $100 placed on Kalshi. But arbing between DK and Kalshi isn’t the play here, because the market maker is telling us that the spread on both teams is +EV, and we should take both for a middle A middle basically means you have two bets that guarantee at least one of those bets will win, while also giving you the possibility of having both bets win For example, the Falcons +9.5 and Bengals +13.5, both of which the market maker is trying to get down on and both on DraftKings at better odds. As long as the Falcons win by 13 points or less, or the Bengals win by 9 points or less, we would win both plays Let’s say each spread bet is 2% EV. If we take two spreads, thats 4% in EV. Now if both those spreads form a middle, that could be an additional 2-8% EV on top. These are 10% EV plays here These middle bets are occurring on the Browns vs Saints, Broncos vs Panthers, Texans vs Chargers, and thats just what we’ve caught while occasionally checking Selene throughout the day So when you do the math and expand it out, the market maker is trying to get filled for $260K on each spread market, multiple spreads per game, and multiple NFL games. That comes out to millions of dollars being deployed With that much liquidity behind them, the market maker has to be an HFT firm like SIG or one of the top syndicates

October is over and the Selene subscriber results are in “It is no coincidence that this is my first full month using Selene and my best month of ROI and profit this year” Turns out this sports betting thing is pretty easy

Timberwolves. Marbles.

Yeah there’s this great sport called football where grown men compete to see who can throw a pigskin the farthest It’s pretty awesome