𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗖𝗢𝗟𝗢𝗨𝗥 𝗥𝗘𝗩𝗢𝗟𝗨𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡 𝗣𝗟𝗔𝗬𝗕𝗢𝗢𝗞. I've written about Nepal before, and the paper trail keeps getting longer. Sunday Guardian isn't some random blog, and Abhinandan Mishra has now put out two pieces built on the same documents, same pattern. 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗠𝗢𝗡𝗘𝗬 The first piece goes through the official paperwork. USAID gave up to $20 million to CEPPS, the Consortium for Elections and Political Process Strengthening, for a programme called Niti Sambad, or "Policy Dialogue." It ran from July 2017 to early 2023, roughly five and a half years. And who ran it? The usual crew: IFES, the International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute. I've seen the same three names turn up everywhere from Serbia to Bangladesh. 𝗦𝗢𝗨𝗡𝗗𝗦 𝗛𝗔𝗥𝗠𝗟𝗘𝗦𝗦 On paper it all sounds very technical, and that's exactly the point. Help Nepal with its federal transition, build "more inclusive, effective and democratic" governance, make the parties more transparent and "accountable to constituents", strengthen the Election Commission, and run civic education, town halls and policy forums. Who argues against town halls? 𝗕𝗨𝗧 𝗪𝗛𝗢'𝗦 𝗗𝗥𝗜𝗩𝗜𝗡𝗚 USAID kept what it calls "substantial involvement". Its words, not mine. Work plans needed its approval, monitoring needed its approval, key staff needed its approval, sub-awards were overseen, and a conflict analysis had to be delivered within 30 days. So no, this was never a blank cheque for Nepali groups. It was a managed pipeline where Washington set the priorities and locals carried them out. 𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗡 𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗬 𝗪𝗥𝗢𝗧𝗘 𝗜𝗧 𝗗𝗢𝗪𝗡 The second piece is about the leaked 2019–2020 work plan. This is where it gets interesting. It lists what it calls "catalytic civic leaders." Balen Shah, a popular cultural figure back then and later Kathmandu mayor. Rabi Lamichhane, the TV presenter who went on to found the Rastriya Swatantra Party. Sagar Dhakal, Sudan Gurung, and Ujwal Thapa from Bibeksheel. There's also a "Generation Next" plan aimed at the old parties, where Gagan Thapa and others in Nepali Congress get tagged as "agents of change." To me that doesn't look like stumbling on talent. It looks like planned support, boosting the people most likely to push the system where you want it to go. 𝗙𝗨𝗘𝗟 𝗔𝗡𝗗 𝗠𝗔𝗖𝗛𝗜𝗡𝗘 Was the anger on the street real? Of course it was. Corruption, no jobs, the nepo kids flaunting it online, and then the social media ban on top. There's always fuel. What turns fuel into fire is a machine, and this one had been built for years, with training, forums, youth networks and NGO partners on the payroll. When the ban came in, everything moved onto Discord, Instagram and Hami Nepal within hours. Parliament burned, politicians' homes burned, dozens of people died, and Oli was gone within days. And the people who'd received the grants, the training and the platforms? They're in the chairs now, or standing right next to them. 𝗦𝗘𝗘𝗡 𝗧𝗛𝗜𝗦 𝗕𝗘𝗙𝗢𝗥𝗘 I've watched this film too many times. Serbia had Otpor, Georgia had Kmara, Ukraine had Pora, and then came Bangladesh in 2024. Fund them, train them, amplify them, and pick your leaders. Then call it Gen Z, call it spontaneous, call it people power, call it democracy if you like. The raised fist, the Discord server, the NGO network and an interim face for the cameras. The parties that won elections get shoved aside, and the groups that won grants move up. 𝗪𝗛𝗬 𝗡𝗘𝗣𝗔𝗟, 𝗧𝗛𝗢𝗨𝗚𝗛 Look at the map. China is right next door. None of that $20 million went into dams, roads or power lines. It went into governance, media, youth, parties and "civic space." And there were hundreds of millions more in USAID and MCC money in the same years. So did Nepalis end up with more control over their own future? I don't think so. What they got was new management. 𝗕𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗲𝗱, 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱.

𝗪𝗛𝗬 𝗖𝗛𝗜𝗔𝗡𝗚 𝗞𝗔𝗜-𝗦𝗛𝗘𝗞 𝗟𝗢𝗦𝗧 𝗧𝗢 𝗠𝗔𝗢. 𝗚𝗨𝗡𝗦 𝗔𝗡𝗗 𝗠𝗢𝗡𝗘𝗬 𝗪𝗘𝗥𝗘𝗡'𝗧 𝗘𝗡𝗢𝗨𝗚𝗛 Bigger army. Mountains of American aid. And he still lost. I've never bought the "Mao was just a better general" story. For me it comes down to class. • Peasants wanted land. Chiang's own backers were the landlords. • In Taiwan he suddenly did the land reform he refused on the mainland. Funny, that. • The Gold Yuan wiped out the savings of the middle class in a few months. • Three Soong sisters went three completely different ways. • Madame Chiang won over Washington. Hunan villages, not so much. • US weapons couldn't fix inflation or hand out land. Clausewitz was right. War is politics by other means. Every leader is trapped by the people who keep him in power. Inspired by Ken Leong's piece 👇 m.facebook.com/story.php?sto… 𝗕𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗲𝗱, 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱.