Tamrur – Politography – Where Reality Meets Facts During the third quarter of 2026, Turkey's position toward Israel became more confrontational, extending beyond diplomatic criticism. According to a study by Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a strategic rivalry is developing between the two countries, with Turkey taking steps to restrict Israel's security and diplomatic room for maneuver while expanding its own regional influence. Developments in Syria are among the clearest expressions of this shift. The August 18 strike on Abu al-Duhur airbase, amid Turkish plans to station forces and military systems there, demonstrated Israel's willingness to act to protect its freedom of aerial operations. Turkey condemned the strike but did not respond militarily. Thus, while the rivalry is intensifying, both countries still seek to avoid direct war. The Israeli–Palestinian conflict has also become more central to Turkey's policy toward Israel. Among 289 sources examined in the report, researchers identified 120 instances categorized as delegitimization of Israel, 80 calls for sanctions, 67 appeals for international action against Israel, and 40 accusations of genocide. By contrast, a two-state solution was mentioned only nine times, the establishment of a Palestinian state 11 times, and a return to negotiations 12 times. According to the study's analysis, the findings suggest greater emphasis on pressuring and isolating Israel and portraying it as a regional and international threat than on advancing a diplomatic settlement. Other elements include Turkey's continuing focus on Jerusalem and the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif, trade restrictions, and ties with Hamas's leadership. Ankara describes its Hamas ties as a means of mediation; Israel regards them as providing support to a hostile organization. Erdoğan and Fidan have at times distinguished between Netanyahu's government and the Israeli public. However, the report finds that these statements were not accompanied by policy changes during the period examined. Direct flights have not resumed, economic restrictions remain, and measures to pressure Israel have expanded. According to the study, the relationship reflects a longer-term trend rather than a temporary crisis. It describes an emerging strategic rivalry and highlights the importance of deterrence, coordination channels, and diplomatic approaches to bilateral relations and the Palestinian issue. The report assesses that, without such an approach, Turkey may use the diplomatic vacuum to expand its regional and international influence. More on our website – politography.org.il/ To participate – [email protected] Tamrur – Politography – Where Reality Meets Facts