Simon Ree, founder of The Tao of Trading and former Goldman Sachs and Citibank markets professional, rejoins the Metals and Miners pod on 10/22 to share how long term yields are in an uptrend and why thinks they stay in an uptrend absent a recession, why the AI trade is something you want to rent, not own, how demand for critical metals is only going to go one way and it’s hard for him to see how the supply side response is going to be anywhere near adequate on a ten-to-fifteen-year view, why markets have been far more resilient than he would have expected, how democracies never vote for austerity, that they will accept it when it’s forced upon them by the market and that will happen at some point, why there could be a nasty sticker shock waiting for the market next year on food and energy inflation, and much more. @simon_ree Watch here --> youtu.be/wEHgwiBz_GI

Pretty much. As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue. That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.

Goldman upgraded $CRWV to BUY on Monday after a 43% drawdown, but cut the price target from $139 to $106. That’s sell-side for “stock has fallen far enough” Stock gapped up on the open then spent the session going the other way, closing -0.4%, near its lows after an 11% intraday range Meanwhile Citadel Securities says retail bought a record $700m of neocloud stocks last week, during a 25% drawdown When you see that much retail buying and a Goldman upgrade… and the stock still can’t hold a bid, someone is using them as exit liquidity

If you could go back in time and save one musician we lost too soon, who would you save?

On days like yesterday and today its always worth remembering Option Trading Myths on X and Substack Option Myth No. 1 : 80% - 85% claimed win rate for sold puts. This matches the theoretical probability from standard options pricing for a 10% OTM put. I have a rather good CSP model that includes back testing with 1.5 M historic data points across 1,600 tickers and a Monte- Carlo simulator that will show you this all day long. It's just math. When a short out-of-the-money put expires worthless, that is not alpha or a tape reading edge. Under standard options pricing, the probability of expiry worthless is already reflected in the premium collected. You receive premium because you receive a capped return and are bearing the tail risk which is where the asymmetry rears its ugly head. The market maker ran the same calculation and priced it accordingly.