Yan at Swan retweeted
āIām already crushing it with stocks. Why add Bitcoin?ā
In our 12-year backtest with quarterly rebalancing, adding just 2.5% Bitcoin to a 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolio increased investment gains by 39%, and barely any extra portfolio volatility.
Then, we tested 20%... š
Yan at Swan retweeted
Logically, investors OUGHT to evaluate Bitcoin the same way they evaluate any addition to their holdings, by what it contributes to the whole portfolio on a risk-adjusted basis.
But I'm extremely understanding of families and business owners who are hesitant to add some Bitcoin to their investment portfolio.
It IS relatively new, and we didn't grow up with it. That means we have to learn about it as we buy it.
Effective Immediately, all organizations using PHP for their systems are advised to be prepared for an update addressing two critical vulnerabilities. PHP is widely used for web applications. These vulnerabilities often provide a direct path to the server's file system or database. If an immediate update is not feasible, it is recommend that organizations take the system offline until it can be fully mitigated. NSA will follow up shortly with more specific guidance.
If you run a php app now may be a good time to tell your clankers to rewrite it in a sane language
if this affects the default installation of PHP
We are fucked up
CVE-2026-109618
CVE-2026-109619
PHP RCEs with a CVSS score of 10.0 ā ļø
news.ycombinator.com/item?idā¦
Yan at Swan retweeted
The Economic Roots of Unrest in France
⢠Government spending at 57% of GDP
⢠Public debt at 119% of GDP
⢠Borrowing in a currency it canāt print
What could go wrong?
Yan at Swan retweeted
If I want to give Bitcoin to my kids, I can send it to a wallet they control on a Sunday night. I don't need to open another financial account or wait for a bank to open.
You'd have to offer me a lot more value in an ETF to give that up.
Yan at Swan retweeted
WHAT IS A BITCOIN HARDWARE WALLET?!?
Today weāre continuing our series of simple Bitcoin explainers you can BOOKMARK and SEND to friends, family, colleagues, or anyone trying to understand Bitcoin.
Hint: Your Bitcoin isnāt actually stored in your hardware wallet š
HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN BITCOIN MINING?!?
BOOKMARK this one for the next time your friends, family, colleagues, or classmates ask what Bitcoin mining actually is š
It always helps me to hear it again. Thanks @skwp for the framework!
āThis is not a cryptographic break, new attack, or weakness in the ECDSA curves. In fact, this makes us more confident the curves were chosen without any backdoors or intentional weaknessesā
CLAUDE FOUND THE SEEDS
anthropic.com/research/ecdsaā¦
Yan at Swan retweeted
Check out OUTSIDE MONEY on YouTube and subscribe to the @swan channel!
youtu.be/4wuqd2IRbtQ?is=Ua5cā¦
Yan at Swan retweeted
Are cracks in the AI infrastructure buildout finally starting to show?
One of CoreWeaveās bonds hit a 15% yield this week, high even by junk-bond standards. $CRWV
Tighter credit can delay data centers, cut supplier orders and slow economic growth long before anyone goes bankrupt....
On today's OUTSIDE MONEY
Yan at Swan retweeted
You can be bullish on America without being bullish on the dollar.
A Bitcoin standard wouldnāt take away our farmland, energy resources, navigable rivers, or protective oceans.
It wouldnāt stop talented people from wanting to move here and build something.
America could remain the worldās leading power long after the dollar loses its monetary dominance.
As a Bitcoiner, I find that a lot more compelling than betting on American collapse.
What if the American empire is just beginning?
Yan at Swan retweeted
What if the American empire is just beginning?
Weāre only 81 years into Americaās run as the worldās leading power.
Rome dominated the Mediterranean for nearly six centuries.
Why are so many people convinced Americaās time is almost up?
The European maritime empires had relatively small homelands and powerful neighbors. America has the resources and internal market of a continent, plus protective oceans on both sides.
Enormous agricultural and energy resources. Rivers connecting our heartland to world markets. An extraordinary ability to attract talented people and turn them into Americans.
There has never been a global power based in this particular part of the world before. Assuming weāll follow the same trajectory as earlier powers could be a huge mistake.
China needed an extraordinary amount to go right to surpass that combination. We even helped them along with American capital, technology, and market access. But Chinaās share of the world economy, measured in dollars, has already fallen from its peak, losing ground relative to America in recent years.
Could America stay on top for another 500 years? We donāt know. But we donāt know that it canāt, either.
America could operate on a Bitcoin standard and still be the worldās leading power. The dollar didnāt create our geography, resources, nor our capacity to invent, build, and inspire.
On todayās OUTSIDE MONEY:
If you bought a Ledger device from a reseller you may want to move funds immediately.
LEDGER SUPPLY CHAIN ATTACK MAY HAVE BEEN EXPOSED BEFORE MASS WALLET DRAIN
Former Mt. Gox CEO Mark KarpelĆØs may have inadvertently triggered a coordinated wallet drain after publicly exposing physically modified Ledger devices containing hidden surveillance implants.
On October 8, KarpelĆØs warned that counterfeit or tampered Ledger devices were being sold with concealed SIM cards capable of transmitting stolen seed phrases.
The implants reportedly intercept data sent to the deviceās screen, allowing attackers to capture recovery phrases displayed during wallet setup.
Crucially, these devices can reportedly pass Ledgerās official Genuine Check because the original secure element remains intact. The verification process cannot detect unauthorized physical modifications.
One theory now emerging is that attackers had been harvesting seed phrases from compromised devices, waiting to drain multiple wallets simultaneously.
KarpelĆØsā warning reportedly attracted roughly 90,000 views, potentially alerting the attackers that their operation had been exposed and prompting them to move stolen funds.
KarpelĆØs says one compromised Ledger he examined originated in Malaysia, arrived in flawless shrink-wrap packaging, and contained an implant cleverly concealed beneath the screen.
The suspected attack vector is a hardware supply chain compromise, not a cryptographic vulnerability.
The connection between KarpelĆØsā warning and the subsequent wallet drains remains unconfirmed, as does whether the same implants were responsible.
If established, the incident would demonstrate how compromised hardware can undermine self-custody even when a device passes manufacturer authentication.
Yan at Swan retweeted
I MADE A BETTER BITCOIN!!! š
Today weāre going to REDESIGN BITCOIN, and weāre gonna change a few things...
This is really cool
After six years in stealth, Atomic Machines is out. Our mission: on-demand, universal command of matter. First beachhead: the Matter Compiler, an AI-native manufacturing system that builds working micro-machines from code alone. No per-product tooling. No process development. Different code, different machine.
So, the same thing LLMs do with software they did with the math. This is why we have built many layers of review that include things like capturing semantic flips, but of course it is all probabilistic, and youāre not going to get them all.
BREAKING: OpenAIās solution to NavierāStokes does not match its Lean verification.
The most important article to read today is not one of OpenAIās 700 AI-generated math papers.
It is this other paper, making a deep and worrying point:
A Lean-verified proof does not automatically validate the proof written in natural language, nor does it mean that the formal statement captures the intended theorem.
During translation, an AI can change an assumption, weaken a statement, or replace the argument entirely.
It can hallucinate another theorem.
Lean correctly verifies the result.
But the proved result may no longer be what the paper claims.
This is a general problem. Things get spicy when the authors examine OpenAIās proposed NavierāStokes solution.
They identify at least two mismatches between the written intermediate results and their Lean counterparts:
One estimate claims that four additional input derivatives suffice. The Lean version requires five: a weaker result.
A pressure-flux estimate is obtained through a different bound, and proved through a different argument.
It is not clear whether these mismatches invalidate the entire proof.
But they raise an important issue.
OpenAI is flooding us with claimed revolutionary breakthroughs. Yet nobody knows whether the proofs are correct or whether they prove what they claim to be proving.
Epistemia at scale.
*
Paper in the first reply
Yan at Swan retweeted
I wasnāt going to comment since this is a really bad take IMO, but since itās taken off I feel the need to. To my understanding, there is no evidence whatsoever pointing to a break of decades old hardness assumptions like elliptic curve cryptography. 1/n
Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash.
Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase).
Don't rush. While I believe there is cause for action a rushed migration would do more harm than good. Don't panic either. Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple, preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets.
IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster).
Recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition. Long-held, unquestioned hypotheses have fallen. This includes the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture. In hindsight, May's unexpected disproof of the ErdÅs unit distance conjecture was our warning shot.
Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us. They say there are weeks where decades happen. We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen. Could our magic 64-byte ECDSA signatures be too good to be true? Was it just security through obscurity all this time?
Elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence. Curves carry rich structure, with room for fancy tricks like Schoof, Frobenius, pairings. (By contrast, hashes are designed to minimise algebraic structure.)
Separately, as Ewin Tang can attest, an efficient quantum algorithm sometimes foreshadows an efficient classical one. We should be open to the possibility of a classical counterpart to Shor that breaks elliptic curves and RSA at once.
Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case.
I urge large, sophisticated actors to lead by example. Project11's "risq list" (bitcoin-risq-list.projecteleven[.]com) is a great tracker of exposed BTC pubkeys. Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether have an opportunity to harden their cold storage. Next month I'll address institutions in London in a live Q&A (forum.ethereuminstitutional[.]org/london-2026).
Again, please do not rush. Wallets holding under 50 BTC enjoy partial cover from "Satoshi's shield", i.e. his 20K exposed addresses that hold 50 BTC each. Load-bearing signers like oracles and L2 security councils should consider rotating ECDSA pubkeys with every signed message and/or multi-signing with a hash-based schemes like SPHINCS.
Exiting bunker mode safely will require post-AI cryptography. My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies. A single battle-tested hash (e.g. from the SHA or BLAKE families) yields plausible post-AI security.
The Ethereum roadmap on strawmap[.]org fully embraces hash-based cryptography with end-to-end formal verification as a response to the quantum threat. Those timelines must now be revisited and accelerated in light of mathematical superintelligence. I'll be pushing for maximum defensive acceleration.














