Co-founder @CHNTradeMonitor & https://xitter.cf/t.co/E60p4vMunE. Non-Resident Fellow @BakerInstitute. Formerly @CatoTrade @WTO. Taught trade law @MelbLawSchool @UMichLaw
Joined July 2012
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Simon Lester retweeted
"It’s Not (Just) the Tariffs: Rethinking Non-Tariff Measures in a Fragmented Global Economy" academic.oup.com/crawlpreven…
"Higher-income countries rely relatively more on NTMs than on tariffs"
Simon Lester retweeted
I've seen chart crimes, I've seen chart felonies, but this is a violation of the chart Geneva Convention
Good chart from this week's The Real Economy @commonplc:
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs on February 20, 2026. The employment gains above trend shown in the chart occurred after the ruling. scotusblog.com/2026/02/suprem… fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP
Simon Lester retweeted
The US is running a wartime-size deficit in a full-employment economy.
The 2026 budget gap hit $1.99 trillion, more than 6% of GDP, with unemployment still low. Deficits this large normally only appear in a recession or a war. Running one now means the fiscal cushion is already spent before the next downturn arrives.
When the slowdown comes, the gap explodes from here. That is how a debt problem becomes a currency problem.
Simon Lester retweeted
Another fiscal year of full Republican control of government in which the budget deficit grew and overall spending increased
Simon Lester retweeted
With all eyes on the inflation statistics released this week, little attention was paid to the Treasury statement released on Friday. It showed the nation racked up a nearly $2 trillion budget deficit in just-ended fiscal year 2026. That’s more than 6% of GDP.
Simon Lester retweeted
Further, the nation paid over $1 trillion in interest on the ballooning debt load, more than we spent on our national defense. The primary budget deficit, which excludes those interest payments, was close to an eye-popping 3% of GDP. With unemployment still low, the primary budget should be balanced, if not in surplus.
Simon Lester retweeted
"The budget deficit swells, while the cost of debt rises" axios.com/2026/10/20/federal…
"Federal net interest costs in 2026 are estimated at 3.3% of GDP, which would be a record high,"
Simon Lester retweeted
My latest for @opinion debunks 3 myths about US manufacturing jobs: 1) they're all good paying; 2) they're all attainable by anyone with a HS degree; & 3) Americans are dying to work them.
These 3 fuel a lot of bad policy (eg tariffs); politicians should stop spreading them. /1
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… (🎁 )
Simon Lester retweeted
U.S. budget deficit swells to almost $2 trillion for fiscal 2026, up 12% in a single year cnbc.com/2026/10/16/us-budge…
"The growing deficit could leave the United States in a vulnerable position the next time a national emergency arises."
"The United States budget deficit approached $2 trillion in the 2026 fiscal year, its highest level since the pandemic, as spending on the military, safety net programs and interest on the debt dwarfed the Trump administration’s cost cuts"
nytimes.com/2026/10/16/busin…
"The United States budget deficit approached $2 trillion in the 2026 fiscal year, its highest level since the pandemic, as spending on the military, safety net programs and interest on the debt dwarfed the Trump administration’s cost cuts"
nytimes.com/2026/10/16/busin…
Simon Lester retweeted
The Trump administration has inked 35(!) equity deals with US firms - unprecedented acts that raise many economic & political problems.
But maybe the biggest problem is that NO LAW authorizes these deals - and that makes unwinding them much harder.
My latest @thedispatch:
You can prop up the economy with stimulus until suddenly you can't.
"U.S. Budget Deficit Jumps to Nearly $2 Trillion" wsj.com/politics/policy/u-s-…
"budget experts expect the deficit to surpass 6% of GDP, compared with 5.8% in fiscal 2025."
Silver lining from @djheakin: "They could have blown it up worse, and they wanted to, some of them" 😭
Simon Lester retweeted
The federal government's debt has surpassed $40 trillion with over $4 trillion of that added since Trump's inauguration.
Simon Lester retweeted
Another year of full Republican control of the federal government has produced a predictably pathetic result: more spending and a larger budget deficit. reason.com/2026/10/09/the-fe…
Simon Lester retweeted
So, yes, the Iowa plant IS a shining symbol of American steel protectionism. And that's a very bad thing. /x
Plenty more at the link (🎁): bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
