𝓡𝓸𝓬𝓸☆𝓐𝓷𝓰𝓮𝓵👼

Trump after meeting today with Putin's special envoy Kirill Dmitriev, says there's going to be an agreement. "It's going to be a big agreement, and it's going to involve more than Ukraine. It's going to be a very big. It's going to involve more than Ukraine, and I could even say it might involve all of Europe. It's going to be a big, beautiful agreement, and everyone's going to be thrilled."

그의 대답: 문제는 메모리 가격이 애초에 얼마나 폭력적으로 상승했느냐는 점입니다. 메모리 제조사들이 TSMC처럼 건강한 방식으로 가격을 올렸다면 이야기가 달라질 수 있었을 겁니다. 하지만 그들이 상품처럼 가격을 올렸기 때문에, 시장은 메모리 주식을 상품 주식처럼 취급할 수밖에 없습니다. ------ 잠깐... 이 얘기 X에서 메모리 주식 오르는 동안 반복하다가 욕 얻어먹으신 한 분 계신데 ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ @PForever0000

Today I met with a veteran investor who argued that memory stocks are not cheap even at a P/E of 3. Below is an edited version of our conversation. Memory LTAs are basically meaningless. The best the LTAs being signed today can do is get customers to shoulder part of the memory makers' capex. Once prices fall, customers will gladly forfeit their deposits (prepayments) and walk away from the LTAs. Historically, whenever prices fell more than 60% from the peak, customers broke their LTAs even after signing them. So even if a 2027 shortage is certain and the stocks trade at a P/E of 3 on 2027 operating profit, 2028 operating profit is uncertain, which makes it hard to justify a higher valuation. He went on to argue that even if 2028 operating profit were certain, we would still have to account for 2029 operating profit. I pushed back and asked why the market doesn't discount TSMC the same way. Why does TSMC get such a high valuation? Wouldn't TSMC also take a big hit if the AI boom fades? His answer: the problem was how violently memory prices rose in the first place. If memory makers had raised prices in a healthy way like TSMC, it might be a different story. But because they hiked prices like a commodity, the market has no choice but to treat memory stocks like commodity stocks. Even if memory makers stay in shortage through 2030, he said, the market will price in the risk of oversupply in 2031. He closed his argument this way: even at 3x 2027 earnings, if memory prices fall in 2028 by enough to break LTAs, that 3x multiple on 2027 works out to 7.8 to 10x on 2028. So current valuations are not cheap.