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good take
A lot of people are commenting "NFT szn".
If you look at the total NFT market cap, you see some recovery from the bottom, but we're still in the same range since 2023.
I think the reason it feels different is that the recent uptrend is concentrated in a few collections - so the total market cap is no longer a good indicator of how the NFT sector is doing.
The market cap of Pudgy Penguins did a 3x in the last three months.
For Moonbirds, it was a 9x.
CryptoPunks did a 2x, adding $800M USD to the total NFT market cap.
The next "NFT bull market" will likely not be a broad one with everything pumping.
Instead, we might see the few existing collections that have been building / are still relevant doing super well.
I even think we gonna see new ATHs because all the energy will be focused on them.
Also can’t neglect the impact of ETH/USD on this chat
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SMILΞ 🌴 retweeted
Historically, the #BTC market cycle top is in when the 200W SMA crosses the prior ATH.
Something to keep in mind...
this. we need peter schiff now to point out the obvious thing. trump is milking his voters for every $ he can - "but look, the immigrants". ppl are so fkn stupid
we're so cooked 💀
What a time to be alive where every country leaders are launching their own tokens on pump.fun...
SMILΞ 🌴 retweeted
This is my secret weapon, commonly known as "Elliott Wave".
But, this simple technique it runs deeper than simply counting a 5 wave structure.
Embedded within the EW is an in-built human psychological aspect which underpins repeating human behaviour.
The masses become greedy and fearful in distinct patterns, which is what makes the markets predictable.
Sure, nothing is 100% accurate and there are no certainties, but has I have shown throughout the bear and bull markets, we can get very close.
What we're headed towards is the final stage of the bull market where greed and euphoria on multiple time frames come together.
In Elliott Wave terms, this occurs in "Wave 5".
In terms of market psychology, this is known as "This Time It's Different".
This is when the masses truly believe times have changed and the market can't go down.
To display my view on EW, I have simplified the typical annotations by colour coding the count and adjusting font sizes to show the waves within waves (aka, cycles within cycles).
It appears that we have just started a lower time frame Wave 1 (small font, grey text) which will likely get Crypto to is final Wave 5 of 5 of 5 (red, yellow & white cycles) to complete Bitcoins first major cycle.
After the completion of a major cycle comes a bear market an asset has not yet experienced. A secular multi-year Bear Market in the case of Crypto.
No, it won't be "this time its different" but rather, different to what a new asset has experienced before, but very common when it comes to market cycles. I'll have more on this at a later date.
For now, the bull market remains on track.
Please note, the most immediate white Wave 4 is not yet confirmed, and price can still decline beneath the current low (~$3T for TMC / $89k for BTC) which can still keep the macro market structure in tact. If the current low fails, I'll reassess and provide an update on YT.
The markets are heating up in the "Everything Bull Market" but make no mistake... this will NOT be easy.
The easy times are the bear markets where fear is written on everyone's face, and plastered on all the headlines.
The tough times are the times come near market tops. There are no limits to GREED and FOMO.
Another symptom of the final stages of a market cycle is increased volatility. So expect wild swings in the price charts and in the emotions of the everyday Joe.
I am already seeing this in my comments both of X and YouTube. It will pay to check the comments from time to time as way to keep your finger on the pulse of where the masses are at.
I'll have more to say on Elliott Wave as the cycle unfolds and will continue to provide updates on my channel.
Be sure to drop by and say G'day! youtube.com/@michaelpizzino
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