Native Texan | Husband | Improver of Government Processes | @ASU alumnus | Drone enthusiast | Board member @EduFoundHC | Opinions are mine alone
Joined February 2009
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Two new tools on my Texas early vote site 🧵
1/ Regulars still out.102,414 Harris voters who usually have voted early by now haven’t yet (27%). Republican-primary regulars are lagging (25% still out vs 18% of Dems).Map it by ZIP:
votes.stevenrdavid.com/harri…
2/ What it would take.
If primary voters stick with their party, how many Independents does the trailing side need?
Harris: Republicans need 65%
Dallas: 82%
Tarrant: 59%
Montgomery: Dems need 63%
votes.stevenrdavid.com
Texas early vote through Tuesday: 3.54M ballots in 11 big counties, 1.6x 2022, 87% of 2024’s pace.
The electorate is shifting as the week goes on 🧵
votes.stevenrdavid.com
3/ Suburbs are catching up, cities are fading.
Pace vs 2024, Oct 23 → Oct 27:
Denton 74% → 82%
Collin 81% → 84%
Bexar 93% → 89%
Dallas 108% → 96%
votes.stevenrdavid.com
4/ Bottom line: the partisans have mostly voted. With three days of early voting left, the race now turns on voters who don’t take sides in March: younger, newer, and more suburban.
Turnout tells us who. Nov 3 tells us how.
End thread.
votes.stevenrdavid.com
Steven David retweeted
Our @hobbyschooluh colleague @stevedavid has built the Harris County Voting Dashboard with live updates on turnout in the region and Texas, a terrific resource for those interested in the consequential races in tue state. Check out the dashboard at uh.edu/hobby/cpp/
Harris County early vote through Monday (day 8 of 12):
705,996 ballots
1.6x the 2022 midterm, 86% of 2024’s pace
Primary voters showing up at the same rate: 64.9% D, 63.8% R
31% (208,162) skipped the 2022 midterm
votes.stevenrdavid.com
New to the site: Montgomery County
Steven David retweeted
IT’S ABOUT TIME! 🦃
The City of Houston has announced that @lizzo will be the Grand Marshall for the Thanksgiving Parade on Thursday, November 26th at 9 AM.
Join us for a day of festivities and holiday cheer.
Learn more: houstontx.gov/thanksgivingpa…
What would it take for a Republican to win Harris County Judge?
I built a forecast of every Harris race from early-vote rosters. Default: Plummer 91%. Slide the late-vote and crossover assumptions and see how far they have to move.
votes.stevenrdavid.com/harri…
Week one of Texas early voting is done. In the 10 biggest counties:
2.68M ballots
1.6x the 2022 midterm
89% of 2024’s presidential pace
Here’s what stood out 🧵
The money: $500M+ in ads, the most of any Senate race on record.
Talarico led by ~3 on Sept 1 and ~1.5 now. The ads drove up his unfavorables. They didn’t make anyone like Paxton more.
By county: Hidalgo (104%) and Dallas (102%) are ahead of their 2024 pace. Denton (80%) and Collin (83%) trail.
Early voting runs through Fri Oct 30. Every county, down to the ZIP: votes.stevenrdavid.com