Dr Subroto Roy

This is a very significant story, but there is a lot we still don't know about what is motivating Liberman, who is the most unpredictable Israeli politician of all. Here is what we do know: 1) Since election day, Liberman has stopped answering calls from Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett. Only campaign staff are still in touch. 2) He has refused a minority government in writing. In August he posted: “Yisrael Beytenu will not be a partner in any constellation for a minority government. Period.” In October he said he would not back one even as a transitional government. 3) If anyone from the bloc joins Netanyahu, Liberman wants it to be Eisenkot, according to Channel 12. He expects Eisenkot to face pressure to join a unity government, and he wants Eisenkot to make that move, not himself. 4) He has already set this up. In October he accused Eisenkot of secretly planning a government with Netanyahu and called him “Gantz 2.” Eisenkot has ruled out serving in a government led by Netanyahu. 5) Liberman has also written off the opposition’s fallback plan. He sees no practical way to replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana. Without the Speaker, the opposition cannot control the Knesset agenda or pass laws against Netanyahu without forming a government. 6) People around him expect a security escalation to complicate the political picture. He is waiting rather than committing. The war in Iran could give him the excuse he seems to be looking for. 7) His 7 seats decide the arithmetic. With 84.4% counted, Netanyahu’s bloc has 54. Liberman voting against alongside it makes 61, enough to bring down any minority government on its own. Without Liberman, the opposition shrinks from 49 seats to about 42. He has done this before. After the 2009 election, he took a week-long vacation before joining Netanyahu’s government. So don't take his refusal to work with the opposition right now as a final word. But it shows he is going to milk his position as kingmaker for all its worth.