See u guys here 3:00 @WOLF_Financial xitter.cf/i/spaces/1NxarogmMVjKj

Hoping, waiting, praying isn't a strategy. When they break the 8/21-day, reduce and sell. 👉 Get your mind right before the open: xitter.cf/RedDogT3/creator-subsc…

$tsla was different. Cleared a macro pattern. Most other tactics were Broken bounces or RDR type reclaim trades. Book some now.

📺 LOOKING AT THE HIDDEN MARKET COLLAPSE + THE IMPORTANCE OF THE 8/21-DAY RULE + SEMIS / NEOCLOUD CAPITULATION + $TSLA LOOKS CONSTRUCTIVE The biggest risk in this market isn't just how much individual stocks have already fallen. It's the massive divergence between what's happening beneath the surface and what the major indices are showing. Some of the most popular growth, AI, and momentum stocks are already down 40%, 50%, even 80% from their highs: – $IREN: -67% – $NBIS: -45% – $CRWV: -61% – $AAOI: -70% – $ASTS: -70% – $OKLO: -82% and the list goes on... Yet, $SPY remains ONLY ABOUT 3% below its peak! This is why the 8/21-day moving average rule is so important. * Many of these stocks were fantastic trades when they were trending above their 8-day and 21-day moving averages. They generated enormous profits for disciplined momentum traders. But once they broke below those averages and failed to reclaim them, the character of those trades changed. Don't turn great trades into terrible investments simply because you refuse to recognize a broken trend. Step aside, protect capital, and wait for the stocks to rebuild. * Today, watch $SPY $768 and especially $758. Friday's low near $768 is the immediate reference point. A sustained break below $758 could signal a more significant correction, particularly as the weekly chart suggests the risk of a breakdown from its rising channel. * Meanwhile, the Mags are no longer providing the same support. $MAGS is showing a potential head-and-shoulders breakdown, while $AAPL suffered a failed breakout, and $META, $AMZN, and $GOOGL have weakened. If the mega-cap stocks holding up the indices begin breaking down, something may finally give. * Important question this week: is capitulation approaching in semis and neoclouds:? $MU, $SNDK, and even $INTC were tremendous momentum trades before the sector lost its 8/21-day structure around July 2. Since then, the selling has been relentless. Neocloud stocks $NBIS $IREN have also been annihilated. Following Elon Musk's weekend comments, I'm watching whether these names gap lower and reverse green, potentially signaling a washout, or continue selling as capitulation accelerates. * Amid all this weakness, $TSLA looks like one of the more constructive setups. #Tesla is showing some commitment to its current trading area. Earnings are behind us, and the stock is benefiting from an upgrade today. I'm not long yet because it hasn't provided a convincing entry. But if #TSLA can consolidate, hold its gains, and eventually break above $388 and stay there, it could open the door to a test of more significant resistance. I'll be watching Tesla closely today. * With the Fed on Wednesday and major Big Tech earnings ahead, this is not the time to deploy all your buying power or blindly short the indices. Stay selective, respect your rules, and preserve capital. Difficult markets eventually create better opportunities, but you need to protect yourself long enough to take advantage of them. * If you found this helpful, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet

Mixed markets around the world heading into a very busy week with peak earnings and the FOMC/ECB/BOJ ahead. Oil is lower, but AI/Semi/Tech damage continues to add up. $SPX futures are +16 — watching to see if this range holds, with 7612 as key active support.

Huge week coming with FOMC, PCE + $SNDK $GOOGL $MSFT $AMZN $STX $HOOD $KLAC earnings and more! Get my preview on Monday morning: ➡️ Access here: t3live.com/rd

As I’ve said for months now. Either you have to be super tactical and micro. Or less size with a ton of room. Depends on your timeframe and process.

I post the $spy daily chart every day. Some asked me the the weekly glance

📺 STOCKS ARE ALREADY DOWN 30–50% — WHAT IF $SPY DROPS 10%+? + THE HIDDEN RISKS OF A DEEPER MARKET CORRECTION
+ EXAMPLES OF WHAT'S WRONG WITH THIS MARKET There's a troubling disconnect between the major indexes and the broader market. While $SPY is only about 2% below its highs, semiconductors $SMH $SOXX have fallen roughly 35%, $QQQ is making new weekly and monthly lows, and numerous individual stocks are approaching 52-week lows. The question that bothers me is: if so many stocks are already down 30–50% while the S&P 500 has barely corrected, what happens to them if $SPY itself falls 10% or more? * $SPY $760 is the critical line in the sand. Trading near $762.50, #SPY is testing the lower boundary of an important ascending channel on its weekly chart. A decisive break below $760 could trigger another wave of selling, particularly in already-damaged growth stocks. I recall two previous channel breakdowns: one earlier this year that preceded a 9.2% decline and another in 2025 that resulted in a 21% correction from the highs. If $760 fails, $749 becomes an initial reference point, but the 50-week moving average sits considerably lower. Meanwhile, the monthly SPY chart remains extended and technically overbought, despite widespread weakness beneath the surface. A potential topping tail, deteriorating breadth, and repeated failures among market leaders raise questions about how much downside risk remains. * $NVDA, $META, $AMZN – all perfectly illustrate what's wrong with this market. $NVDA produced one of the worst failed breakouts I've seen in a long time. After losing the $234–236 area, the stock briefly appeared to stabilize, only to reverse sharply and engulf several previous trading sessions. $META finally broke out of a frustrating trading range, suggesting a potentially profitable new uptrend. Instead, the breakout failed, sending the stock straight back toward the middle of its range. $AMZN rallied approximately $12 on Monday, only to surrender the entire move. These are supposed to be market leaders, yet even their strongest rallies lack commitment, continuity, and follow-through. * The problem isn't simply declining prices. It's the repeated failure of seemingly constructive setups, making sustained gains increasingly difficult for active traders. I've responded yesterday by dramatically reducing my positions, maintaining substantial cash reserves, and purchasing SPY $760 puts to prepare for a potential breakdown. * Also, watch $TLT, where an oversold rebound offered a successful tactical opportunity. However, Treasury bonds are now approaching resistance, although their relatively underowned status could attract further capital rotation. * So, don't assume a stock is a bargain simply because it's already down 50%. If $SPY loses its weekly support, another round of systematic selling could drag damaged stocks significantly lower. The better opportunities may emerge in stocks that stop declining and demonstrate relative strength during the next market selloff. Until then, capital preservation, patience, and disciplined risk management take priority over aggressive dip buying. * If you found this helpful, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet And make sure you get Monday's newsletter: ➡️ t3live.com/rd

Mixed markets around the world as solid results from $WDC/ $BE aren’t helping much. A1/Semis could see an oversold bounce but remain broken, while Iran headlines are back in focus. Watching 7631–7637 on $SPX — if that fails, downside could start to catch up.