The Capital Mindset

These are all solid points.   Let’s take it one step further…   Think back to the 2016 to 2017 cycle. Bitcoin took a 20% hit, two 30% hits, one 35% hit, and three separate 40% flushes. It was relentless. Yet the market still delivered a 46x move. The human mind conveniently forgets how awful those corrections felt because the final outcome rewrote the narrative.   Now look at this cycle...   We have had four 20% pullbacks and now three 30% pullbacks (chart 1). Nothing about this is new. It only feels painful because you are inside the move right now. And if you are anchored on the idea that the cycle peaks this year, which is not our base case but is a view many people hold, it becomes very easy to convince yourself that you missed the bulk of the move, that it’s all over, and that the best of this cycle is already behind us. What really stands out is how similar these corrective structures have been over the past couple of years, as shown in charts 2 and 3… The pattern, the size, the timing, they keep repeating. It is almost fractal. I have more examples of this as well.   When you compare both the magnitude of the pullback and the amount of time spent correcting, it suggests we are getting very close to the end of this move.   Now, to Raoul’s point, sentiment is indeed completely washed out…   Everyone is calling for the top. People are capitulating emotionally and not analytically. That is exactly the environment where bottoms tend to form. RSI is sitting at 28, and DeMark counts are close to flashing 9s and 13s almost across the board. Nothing is guaranteed, but the probabilities are starting to lean heavily toward a bottom forming this week. Let’s see… And remember, most people are overcomplicating the idea that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle can extend. It’s simple. If the business cycle extends, the crypto cycle extends (chart 4).   Bitcoin is a macro asset…