dave

starting to see a surge of "Solana Derangement Syndrome" sweep across the tl the past week SDR is characterized by looking at sol through an ideological/emotional lens rather than boring/sober trading people (going back to sol at $8-20 in 2023) will come out of the woodwork at local lows to beat a dead horse about how terrible it is, and how it's doomed to zero. people will put out price targets with zealous fervor (on USD and BTC) that don't make sense under any market regime. stuff like "sol goes to $25!" or "solbtc down only from here forever" i think this is an opportunity to just do some spot DCAing some quick thoughts on sol, as a trade: - it's the best general purpose blank canvas for blockchain activity we have available to us - it's fast, free, and reasonably decentralized, and rather than be complacent, devs are continuing to ship improvements at a breakneck pace, with a fire under their asses - improvements to "fast and free" can't really get any better than "fast and free", but making it even faster/cheaper silently unlocks other/frontier use cases. basically creating conditions for "new life" in terms of tech and narrative - i don't know how to value an L1 gas token in 2026, 2027, but enough people look at sol (and eth) as money to make that self-fulfilling (otherwise, both tokens would be trading something like 10-100x lower) - SIMD that passed around disinflation/fees do heavy lifting re: the biggest critique around holding the token (still wouldn't want to baghold through a bear market, FWIW, but that's true of virtually anything) i'm not really a "sol goes to 1k!" guy - i simply look at it as a sort of "you're gonna get 1.5x-3x on whatever BTC does depending on what sort of market" trade, with the potential for a surprise to the upside once the market heats back up if budding narratives accelerate (there are many waiting in the gates) we already saw go from $60 -> $120 on BTC doing what it's done so far. i think targeting $180-240 on the low end as a "this is an EOS in 2024 / worst case scenario disappointing limp echo bubble" trade makes the r:r favorable, but i think if BTC extends comfortably past prev ATH (150k+), there's a good chance sol puts in a new USD high as well on the SOLBTC chart below: the lower green circle is a no-brainer/conservative trade that feels like great r:r and i think is table stakes if we get any sort of a bull run upper green circle is great i think you can target above the diagonal if sol gets a great new narrative (on USD) this is probably something like $400-600, but not something i'd hold my breath for