Fikir çapkını. Politika, teknoloji, jeoekonomi. Ussal Consultancy & M&P Istanbul. Nasıl Bir Ekonomi'de haftalık köşe · Global İşler+ bülten
Istanbul / Ankara / Dubai
Joined September 2008
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Kıyamet alametleri belirdi!
Yapay zekâ dünya ekonomisini borç krizinden kurtaracak derken, kendisi yeni bir borç sorunu yaratıyor.
Amerikan devletinin de borç yükü ağırlaşıyor. Çin ise aşırı kapasite, zayıf tüketim ve yaşlanmayla sıkışıyor.
Yapay zekâ balonundan faydalanmadığımız halde, balonun patlamasının maliyetleri üzerimize kalabilir.
Detayları @ekonomim yazımda tartıştım. (1/2)
Ussal Sahbaz retweeted
Bugün @turkiyetodaycom için Türkiye ve benzer ülkelerde stabilkoinleri yazdım.
Stablecoins are creating a paradox for financial regulators: restrictions designed to protect financial sovereignty may end up weakening it.
An October 2026 IMF study finds that stablecoin activity rises by roughly 30% following restrictions on capital outflows. Regulation does not necessarily stop transactions. It can push them beyond the reach of regulated institutions.
Meanwhile, Washington is taking a different approach. The GENIUS Act provides a framework for private dollar-backed stablecoins, potentially extending dollar dominance while creating demand for US Treasuries.
What should middle powers like Türkiye do?
Türkiye already permits certain export payments through informal transfer channels in more than 50 countries. Yet regulated stablecoin payments remain excluded. Why should an old informal mechanism be acceptable while a potentially more transparent digital alternative is not?
Financial sovereignty does not mean controlling every payment channel. It means keeping domestic systems resilient while allowing businesses to access global payment networks safely and competitively.
More on my @turkiyetodaycom piece today:
turkiyetoday.com/opinion/sta…
Ussal Sahbaz retweeted
Stablecoins are creating a paradox for financial regulators: restrictions designed to protect financial sovereignty may end up weakening it.
An October 2026 IMF study finds that stablecoin activity rises by roughly 30% following restrictions on capital outflows. Regulation does not necessarily stop transactions. It can push them beyond the reach of regulated institutions.
Meanwhile, Washington is taking a different approach. The GENIUS Act provides a framework for private dollar-backed stablecoins, potentially extending dollar dominance while creating demand for US Treasuries.
What should middle powers like Türkiye do?
Türkiye already permits certain export payments through informal transfer channels in more than 50 countries. Yet regulated stablecoin payments remain excluded. Why should an old informal mechanism be acceptable while a potentially more transparent digital alternative is not?
Financial sovereignty does not mean controlling every payment channel. It means keeping domestic systems resilient while allowing businesses to access global payment networks safely and competitively.
More on my @turkiyetodaycom piece today:
turkiyetoday.com/opinion/sta…
Bugün @turkiyetodaycom için Türkiye ve benzer ülkelerde stabilkoinleri yazdım.
Stablecoins are creating a paradox for financial regulators: restrictions designed to protect financial sovereignty may end up weakening it.
An October 2026 IMF study finds that stablecoin activity rises by roughly 30% following restrictions on capital outflows. Regulation does not necessarily stop transactions. It can push them beyond the reach of regulated institutions.
Meanwhile, Washington is taking a different approach. The GENIUS Act provides a framework for private dollar-backed stablecoins, potentially extending dollar dominance while creating demand for US Treasuries.
What should middle powers like Türkiye do?
Türkiye already permits certain export payments through informal transfer channels in more than 50 countries. Yet regulated stablecoin payments remain excluded. Why should an old informal mechanism be acceptable while a potentially more transparent digital alternative is not?
Financial sovereignty does not mean controlling every payment channel. It means keeping domestic systems resilient while allowing businesses to access global payment networks safely and competitively.
More on my @turkiyetodaycom piece today:
turkiyetoday.com/opinion/sta…
Bu kişilerin kurumsal aidiyetlerinin hala eski kurumlarına olduğunu düşünüyorum. Doğrusu da budur.
Geçen hafta @EkonomimCom yazımda (pinli) üç kıyamet alameti saymıştım: (1) Yapay zeka borcu, (2) Amerikan borcu, (3) Çin'de borç, talep eksikliği, aşırı rekabet.
Aşağıdaki tvitselde Çin'de yerel yönetimlerin, kamu arazisi satışları bitince, çoğunlukla müflis olduklarını göstermişler.
We (Jonathan Elkobi, me) are happy that @chinaquarter has accepted our new piece “The End of Fiscal Autonomy. ” Yes, it’s provocatively titled but this is an important data point for analyzing China’s economy. A large literature suggests that local autonomy, including fiscal “federalism” has been a key ingredient to growth and local reform initiatives. If local governments literally have little to no autonomy, their incentives and ability to use local initiatives to generate growth also declines. Below, I summarize our findings with link of pre-pub version at the end.
Quick primer: Chinese budgeting is broken into 1. ordinary budget to finance public services, civil service salaries and 2. Extra budgetary fund (EBF) used to finance land acquisition/sale, infrastructure projects and other discretionary spend. The source of the problem is here—ordinary revenue at the local level has grown very modestly over a 6-year period (21%), while EBF revenue (land income) has not grown at all due to the property crackdown. Central transfers made up the bulk of the growth in non-debt sources of income for local governments. (1/N)
Çok güzel kitap... Öneririm!
Just finished Rana Foroohar’s Sea Change.
@RanaForoohar manages to weave together her vision of industrial policy (through shipbuilding), US-China rivalry, and the future of post-Trump America—all through the Arctic as a geopolitical theater.
A masterclass in making complex ideas tell one compelling story.
Palmer Luckey, köpeklerin genetiği ile oynayıp daha iyi koku alan, daha terbiyeli askeri köpekler üretecek yeni bir girişim kurmuş.
Anladığım kadarıyla, Türkiyenin savunma sanayii inovasyonu tam Clayton Christiansen teorilerini takip ediyor.
Türkiye, enerji arz güvenliği + kaynak çeşitliliği konusunda Avrupa'dan ileri durumda.
Ussal Sahbaz retweeted
The only consulate building that is in the historical peninsula in Istanbul belongs to Iran.
While all western powers opened their embassies to the Ottoman Empire in Pera in 1800s, the sultans gave a special status to Iran, because it was the only independent Muslim country by then.
While all Western powers opened embassies to the Ottoman Empire in Pera in the 1800s, the sultans gave Iran special status because it was the only independent Muslim country at the time.e. time.e time.
TRT'de çok güzel bir belgesele katıldık.
For Türkiye, financial sovereignty means resilience, not isolation: reliable domestic payments, global connectivity, and regulation that protects privacy and competition while tackling misconduct. Restricting technology will not remove the reasons people want to hold dollars.
I had the pleasure of speaking at a documentary shoot for TRT (Turkish Radio and Television), filmed at Istanbul’s newly opened Darphane-i Amire museum complex.
The setting is particularly fitting: the former Ottoman imperial mint in Topkapı Palace now preserves the machinery and industrial heritage of coin production. Discussing digital money where coins were once minted brings the central question into focus: as money technology changes, how does power distribution change with it?
Ussal Sahbaz retweeted
7️⃣
Her sakallıyı dedeniz sanmayın.
Bayes kuralı der ki: gördüğünüz her sakallının dedeniz olma ihtimali, sakallıların sayısı arttıkça düşer. Uçak korsanlığında, fintekte, Fonzi’de aynı mesele.
Sıkı kural herkesi şüpheli yapar; asıl gereken istihbarat ve kapasitedir. Devlet kapasitesi “herkesi durdurmak” değil, kimi neden durduracağını bilmektir.
ekonomim.com/kose-yazisi/kac…
Paranın tarihi güvenin tarihidir.
Doların silaha dönüşmesi, stabilkoinlerin yeni Eurodolar olması, merkez bankası dijital parasının siyasi riski…
Türkiye’nin “kural çok, kapasite az” hali…
Son 5 yılda bu konuda yazdığım 7 köşe yazısı aşağıda... 🧵
6️⃣
Fazla kural ne sonuç doğurur?
Trafik küresel platformlara kayıyor, yerli veriyi de kaybediyoruz. Bağcıyı dövmek üzüm yemek değil.
ekonomim.com/kose-yazisi/fat…
7️⃣
Her sakallıyı dedeniz sanmayın.
Bayes kuralı der ki: gördüğünüz her sakallının dedeniz olma ihtimali, sakallıların sayısı arttıkça düşer. Uçak korsanlığında, fintekte, Fonzi’de aynı mesele.
Sıkı kural herkesi şüpheli yapar; asıl gereken istihbarat ve kapasitedir. Devlet kapasitesi “herkesi durdurmak” değil, kimi neden durduracağını bilmektir.
ekonomim.com/kose-yazisi/kac…