ValueHurts

Inspired by @Greenbackd recent posts on sector performance.

From my intern called Grok: For a 4-year horizon I assume: • Recovery from the 2026 trough toward more normalised earnings power (reflecting improved US funding visibility, a Geotek expedition, and operational leverage). • Subsequent total EPS growth in the low-to-mid teens annually, combining ~5–8% organic growth with disciplined M&A (redeploying free cash flow at attractive returns, consistent with the group’s history). • This produces roughly 370–400p of adjusted EPS by 2030 in a base-to-constructive case. • A terminal multiple of ~20× (below the higher multiples the shares have often commanded historically when growth was stronger, and reflecting a larger, still high-quality compounder). That combination supports a ~£80 target. Reaching it from £34.30 over four years equates to a ~2.33× capital multiple, or ~23.6% annualised. Dividends (currently yielding ~3.3% and growing) would add to total return but are excluded from the pure price-target calculation. This is a reasoned base-to-positive scenario, not a precise forecast. Upside could come from faster M&A deployment or stronger organic recovery; downside risks include prolonged US funding weakness, execution/integration issues, higher interest costs on leverage, or a lower multiple if growth disappoints. The long-term drivers of scientific instrumentation demand and the group’s acquisition discipline remain intact.