Crypto and macro in plain English. Every day: the levels I am watching and the positions I actually hold. No hype. Livestreams Mon-Fri.

Joined January 2023
Why would you be pissed if Bitcoin doesn't go down anymore?
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If you hold Arbitrum, it's not going to zero. When Bitcoin bounces, it goes up
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Every midterm election since 1946 has been followed by a positive year for stocks. Bitcoin dropped after the last three midterms, but each time it was still in a bear market. This time it is above the bull market support band, so I expect chop, not a 50% crash.
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More bullish than I planned for. I was expecting Bitcoin to hit 76K to at least 78K first, and it didn't even close below 80K, not on the daily and not on the weekly. A daily close above 83.7K today confirms the higher low
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Your alts going up in dollars doesn't mean they beat Bitcoin. Check the total altcoin market cap minus stablecoins, divided by Bitcoin. When that ratio goes up, you rotate back into Bitcoin. If it isn't climbing, your alts are underperforming
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My rule for rotating alts back into Bitcoin: do it once they've beaten it. On the last rally, Bitcoin went from 65K to 86K, call it 30%. If your alts were up 60% on that move, it's time to rotate
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Does it matter for crypto which party wins the midterms? For the Clarity Act, not really. It's bipartisan, both parties have voted yes and no. It's delayed no matter what, and it should get another chance mid next year
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Gaming coins aren't dead. The Sandbox, Decentraland and Axie still trade on all the exchanges with enough liquidity, so in a Bitcoin bull run they've got upside. Will they beat the AI or RWA coins? No
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Native Bitcoin beats wrapped unless you use DeFi heavily on Ethereum
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Bitcoin bull or bear? I'm staying bullish through the chop: the 50-week EMA near 78,600 is my dip target and 75K is the line I don't expect Bitcoin to break.
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If the four-year cycle can time the Bitcoin bottom to the exact month, why can't anyone time the top?
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☕️ GM! Here are the most important market events over the last 24 hours: 🌍Market Overview: 🔸 The boards of SpaceX and Tesla formed special committees to review a merger that would be the largest in history, after SpaceX's Q3 revenue rose 161% to $14.6B against a $12.72B estimate. #SpaceX 🔸 Anthropic's H1 revenue jumped to $16.3B from $1.1B, but it lost more than $80B, mostly $72B of convertible-note charges, per a WSJ-reported draft prospectus. Some investors now weigh a $1.5T valuation. #AI 🔸 US housing starts fell 5.2% in September, with single-family starts missing forecasts, as mortgage rates hit 7.6%. Nationwide sees building stuck into 2027. 🔸 OpenAI said a GPT-6 Astra agent removed its own safety monitoring and then lied about it, a risk for AI agent buyers. 🔸 Putin freed American Stephen Hubbard as talks with US envoy Steve Witkoff on ending the Ukraine war got underway, a release that comes as Trump has lifted some sanctions on Moscow. 🔸 Mistral launched Voxtral 3 speech models with a voice agent SDK, and Perplexity's Computer agent now runs fully local on Macs, shifting AI work off the cloud onto machines people already own. 🪙Crypto Updates: 🔸 Zcash set block 3,543,405, around Nov. 5, to activate NU7, cutting block times from 75 to 25 seconds and pulling 60% of fees out of circulation. ZEC jumped 11% to about $1,260. #Zcash 🔸 Ethereum staking hit a record 43.8M ETH, nearly 36% of supply, per Bitwise, as yields slipped to 2.63% from 2.81%. Solana staking also set a record at 69% of supply. #ETH 🔸 LayerZero set Nov. 30 to launch its Zero mainnet and ATLAS trading engine with more than a dozen venues, and plans to use 75% of fees left after venue rebates to buy and burn ZRO. 🔸 Switzerland's FINMA approved the country's first retail ETF that invests directly in Bitcoin. #Bitcoin 🔸 Microsoft, Alphabet and Goldman Sachs objected to tokenized trading of their shares on OKXICE, the OKX and ICE venue, taking the objector count to 16 from nine. 🔸 Mt. Gox pushed its repayment deadline a year to Oct. 31, 2027, its sixth extension since 2023, with 34,388 BTC, about $2.8B, still in its wallets per Arkham.
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If you flip flop on Bitcoin every time it dips, you'll get sidelined
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JUST IN: NEAR is voting on cutting how many new NEAR coins it creates each year - From 2.5% of supply to 1.6% a year, phased in over 24 months - Voting closes Nov. 2 - Validators still have to adopt it after If you hold NEAR and don't stake, you get diluted more slowly
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My leverage caps: 5x max on Bitcoin, under 3x on majors like Solana Anything higher and you're at the mercy of liquidation. This chop could last a few months, so don't get wiped out on a dip to 77K or 76K
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Outside Japan or Korea, getting into their stocks is a pain Kunaal Patel runs institutional at Ondo Finance (@Ondo) for Asia and the Middle East. His plan: put those stocks on-chain so anyone abroad can trade them, any hour
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Most people can't get into a company until its IPO. Matthieu de Vergnes of Ondo Finance (@Ondo) says 87% of US companies with $100M+ in revenue are private His fix: tokenized notes that cut the entry ticket from millions to $1,000 or less, on @OndoPerps. Outside the US only
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"There's no clock in perps" I asked David Wells, CEO of @OndoPerps, to explain perps for someone who's never traded one, and why stocks and pre-IPO names now trade 24/7 on-chain (outside the US)
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The full 20 minutes with all three: youtu.be/xPC5yfABctg And if you want to try Ondo Perps, this is my referral link, so I get a cut of the fees: app.ondoperps.xyz/?ref=KN2V1… (not available to US persons)
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