VoteHub

Peltola is on the verge of 50%. VoteHub has already called for her.

In my home county of Champaign, Illinois, Clerk Aaron Ammons (D) won reelection despite a federal grand jury indictment following an FBI investigation. He ran 25 points behind JB Pritzker, but the county was blue enough for him to win by seven.

Based on the remaining ballots, Peltola looks well-positioned to clear 50% and avoid RCV. Our call projects at least a win after RCV if she does not clear 50%, which we can run ourselves. Clearing 50% would help settle questions about the second Dan Sullivan and the NYT story.

PROJECTION — Mary Peltola is headed back to Congress, winning Alaska’s U.S. senate seat two years after losing Alaska’s at-large House. Her victory gives Democrats their ninth flip of the midterms, matching their most since 1958.

Democrats now hold 56 Senate seats and are clearly favored to retain control in 2028. If they win MN next year and Republicans win the presidency, NH is the tipping point. Maggie Hassan may seek reelection; Republicans hope to recruit former Gov. Chris Sununu.

Democratic incumbent Mike Thompson is another casualty of gerrymandering conducted by his own party. He beat Eric Jones in the area he currently represents, but Jones prevailed by dominating new territory north of Sacramento.

We now have official canvassed results for the vast majority of North Carolina. Democrats are the apparent winners in both districts, but we'll wait until the recount deadline passes or any recounts are completed before calling them. At Trump+18, NC-05 would be one of the reddest districts Democrats flip this year. Most county updates from the canvass involved single-digit changes that largely canceled out in NC-03 and NC-05, though Smith's lead in NC-03 narrowed to 260 votes from a high of roughly 300 as he lost >10 votes in three counties. We've also called NC-07 and NC-10, which are much less close, for Republicans.

Eileen Laubacher has defeated Lauren Boebert in an upset to some, flipping a Trump+18 seat spanning much of rural Colorado. It's the second-reddest district we've called for Democrats so far, though a potential Democratic win in TN-04 would move it to third.