George Washington PhD. From the campaign world professionally. A mixture of food and politics. Living in Modiin, Israel
Israel
Joined September 2008
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There is this thing where everytime something bad happens Jews have to prove they are good or belong in a space. Guilty until proven innocent. Absolutely exhausted by it and just beyond caring what people think
He also has seaside property in Dimona for sale
Channel 14 Political Correspondent Moti Kastel:
The most realistic option is a unity government pushed by President Herzog, which would have Netanyahu serve the first two years as PM in exchange for an agreement to retire from politics afterwards and receive a presidential pardon.
@KastelMoti
Will Cubbison וויל קביסון retweeted
Israeli police reject claims by the Likud party of “election theft” and wide scale voter fraud, saying there is no evidence to support such claims. In fact, yesterday there was a total of 48 complaints concerning voter fraud, a 40% decrease compared to the previous elections.
🔴 Likud alleges widespread fraud at Arab polling stations, claims Israel’s election was “stolen” and demands an immediate investigation
Read more here 👉
i24news.tv/en/news/israeli-e…
Will Cubbison וויל קביסון retweeted
The default shouldn’t be “Come on already, stop being stupid and get over your problem with Bibi.”
The default should be “Given that I, personally, am the impediment to a strong, functional government, I will step aside for the sake of my party and my country.”
I refuse to mock Filber for being different.
I will mock him for insisting he was right all along when he had the biggest miss of the night. And because his explanation for why he was different showed his polls aren't actually polls as science uses the term
Turnout was announced as 77%
If there are 450k double envelopes then there must still be another half million regular kalpi votes not yet released. Or else the numbers don't add up
This is the sort of wish casting that passes for analysis. A lot of shaky assumptions in here.
Eisenkot’s dilemma:
1. His failed “change coalition” will be crushed at a second election if they use the Jihadi-supporting Joint List to “stick it to the right” and temporarily get their Bibi scalp.
2. If he doesn’t, but also doesn’t partake in some form of unity coalition, Netanyahu, from the comfort of the Prime Minister’s chair, will run out the clock and call new elections in May, in which he will do better, since he lost 5% of the right-wing votes to Winter’s and Hendel’s failed start-up parties. Also, events in the region—war with Iran, and perhaps peace with the Saudis—will likely play to Netanyahu’s favour.
3. So the smart play for him is to offer Netanyahu his party in a unity coalition, but he comes with a very weak hand, since he won’t be able to bring the leftists under Golan with him, or Liberman’s party (whose entire career is focused on unseating Netanyahu).
And what would be in it for Netanyahu? Netanyahu is aware of points 1 and 2 above. He could simply play out the clock, let the negotiations fail, blame Eisenkot, and come back with the extra few seats he needs in May. Would he betray his reliable hard-right and Haredi allies for what could be a short-term coalition? Unlikely.
The problem is that when someone has the choice of who gets to extort them, nobody gets to do it. And that is the definition of power. Optionality. All Eisenkot’s options are bad, all Netanyahu’s are good.
I have a bold proposal. If we are going to a second election the Opposition could hold back on some legislation in exchange for Netanyahu agreeing to appoint a competent Transportation Minister and senior staff who are professionals
Will Cubbison וויל קביסון retweeted
You're right about the double envelopes - they could make some difference.
But they aren't all military. They include prisoners, law enforcement, hospital staff, etc. - many of whom are Arab.
"I didn't predict the Arab flood"
Dude had access to hourly reports from every kalpi and he wants to say he was surprised. Meanwhile he is just outright lying about what his polls said.
The truth is Filber is a propogandist and not a pollster
שני השקל שלי בדיון
על הסקרים:
הויכוח בשלוש השנים האחרונות היה האם שליש מבוחרי הליכוד עבר לגוש השינוי.
בחירות 2026 הוכיחו חד משמעית
**איש לא עזב את גוש הימין**
לגבי הדיוק והתחזית במדגמים זהו דיון אחר.
- אני וגם אחרים לא חזינו את 'הערבים הנוהרים' באחוז כזה.
- אירוע ליברמן יבדק.
יום טוב לכולם, ותודה כל הפירגונים.
One of the assumptions going around is that Netanyahu will embrace a second election because of course Yashar will fall and of course Arab turnout will fall.
1- No public poll predicted anywhere close to this turnout so whats the basis for any certainty?
2- Look at 2019-2020
In April 2019 Blue and White got 26.1%
In Sept 2019 they got 25.95%
In 2020 they got 26.59%
Is anyone really so certain Yashar will just dissolve into pieces because of these results?
93% of kalpiot have been counted, an estimated 85.6% of all votes cast. The bulk of the remaining votes are double envelopes which they will start counting tomorrow.
At the moment its
53 Netanyahu bloc
48 Eisenkot bloc
7 Ra'am
12 Joint List
The education system in the Haredi sector is so much worse than I realized. Couldn't even pass 2nd grade math
Will Cubbison וויל קביסון retweeted
Filber’s polls, both reelection and exits, were off by more than the mainstream tv channels were. The fact that people are focusing more on their error than his is a great example of how much better the right is in shaping narratives than the opposition.
Incomplete results show UTJ and Shas lost some votes to other Right wing parties in large Haredi cities. That certainly is not going to lower the vitriol towards the rest of Jewish society from them
