@WillManidis

financier.

new york city
Joined September 2016
ScienceIO has been acquired by Veradigm Together, we are going to build the intelligence provider for the future of healthcare.
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Will Manidis retweeted
The first healthcare store we built was amazon. The second healthcare store we built was @GeneralMedicine. So it only felt appropriate that the third would be @Walmart. Announcing Walmart Better Care Services, a healthcare store powered by General Medicine. 
The story behind it, from @elliotcohen, below.
Nearly nine years ago, @TJParker and I went to Bentonville to talk to @Walmart about building a different kind of pharmacy. While we were there, we visited The Walmart Museum. If you haven’t been, go! I loved seeing the history of a company that started with a single store and changed what people everywhere could buy and afford. We were building PillPack at the time, and spent much of that trip talking about what healthcare could learn from retail. Today we’re launching the new Walmart Better Care Services, a healthcare store powered by General Medicine. Starting today, customers can browse more than 900 products and services across a dozen different provider groups, compare cash and estimated insurance prices, and get what they need. Walmart defined the experience, chose the products, services, and providers. Our technology makes it all shoppable. A lot has happened since that first trip. We sold PillPack, built Amazon Pharmacy, and started @GeneralMedicine. We’ve spent most of our working lives trying to make getting healthcare easier. And somehow it still feels like we’re just getting started. We have incredible clinicians and treatments in this country. But finding the right care, figuring out what something costs, and actually getting it remains convoluted and complicated. Something that should have been a quick purchase becomes a project. Too often, people just put it off altogether. And when the problem is serious, all that hassle lands on top of what’s already hard. When transactions are easy, you take a whole layer of complexity off the table. We launched General Medicine a year and a half ago. A few weeks ago, we wrote about the idea behind it: healthcare needs a store. Helping Walmart build one for its customers is that idea reaching the scale we’ve been aiming at since PillPack. I love that we have our own store. We get to build things we’ve wanted to exist for years, hear directly from customers, and keep making them better. But I’m just as excited about helping other companies build theirs. We learned at PillPack how much more you can do when you work with companies that already serve millions of customers. Tech platforms, retailers, health systems, payers, and manufacturers all bring something different. There’s a lot more we can do together than any of us could do on our own. With Walmart, we get to work with a retailer and pharmacy that’s part of everyday life all across the country. This one is particularly special to me. We walked into Bentonville nine years ago hoping to build something together. It took a little longer than we expected, but here we are. Build the store. Then build more stores.
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as more of this data becomes public there will be a lot of handwringing about where historical returns came from in private markets remember this world no longer exists. it has been totally eviscerated by the intelligence trade. what got us here is no indicator of whats next
One of the more challenging questions in designing this methodology was how to accomodate for firms with one big hit. On one hand, you want to reward investors who consistently make good decisions, and eliminate luck from the equation as much as possible. On the other hand, venture capital is an outlier business and tripling or quadrupling down on a major winner should also be rewarded. So, the ranking uses a "consistency-adjusted" approach where 2/3 of the weighting is given to the portfolio performance with the biggest outcome, and 1/3 is given to the performance without that outcome. With this in mind, there are a few firms that stand out: @gigafund and @Pelion_VP are effectively 100% associated with one company each (SpaceX and Cloudflare), and @Lowercase is also highly concentrated (98% Uber). They maintain a high rank because of their relatively low capital at risk. @usv, @GreylockVC, @sequoia, @IndexVentures and @khoslaventures are amongst the least concentrated, which speaks to a legacy of many large outcomes influencing their performance. They maintain a high rank despite their relatively high capital at risk. More: top50.joinodin.com
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was able to have astra ultra one shot a toy 7k parameter LLM in minecraft using only redstone. genuinely impressive
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ant s1 detailing how useful it is at detecting medicare fraud ... straussian
cathedral releasing this the morning of the s1 release is like the muslim/wasp wars in the intelligence community for guys that read situational awareness
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cathedral releasing this the morning of the s1 release is like the muslim/wasp wars in the intelligence community for guys that read situational awareness
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Will Manidis retweeted
John Maynard Keynes on the history of British foreign investment.
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objectively really funny the times is now ripping off hedge fund journalism
Breaking: Several sections of @NYTimes front page story today mirror two earlier Hunterbrook investigations — without attribution.  Images. Methods. Sources. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery?
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the most charming part of the openai spy scandal is that the alleged perpetrator used chatgpt to learn how to wire up his little sixteen dollar arduino board and write firmware for it - we really live in a golden age of hobby electronics and no one has even noticed
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there is a vanishingly small number of humans alive at any given point that have the skills to do complex, high personality, high convexity dealmaking. this has replaced “general management” as the most sparse asset in the world and will pay you trillions if you actually have it
the modern deal guy has no permanent capital, no permanent loyalty, and no permanent location. the modern deal guy is playing a repeated game, he doesn't care who he pisses off, there's going to be another hand. the modern deal guy is much more a broker than a principal. he has an ecosystem around him that identify as "his guys" the modern deal guy has 99% of his chips on the table at any given moment, the next hand will always be bigger. the modern deal guy is reticent to monetize any given opportunity early, but when he decides its time to sell, he does so savagely and without concern for fallout. the modern deal guy is only concerned about where he spends his time. he runs a schedule like a CAA agent the modern deal guy is only constrained by sourcing talent to put behind ideas at scale, capital and opportunity sets are infinite the modern deal guy either has an exhaustively curated public persona, or none at all, anything in the middle is a mess. the modern deal guy has very little concern for whats "on the paper", he's playing a very different game of pressure and repetition the modern deal guy is unusually concerned about studying history and learning from adjacencies. the modern deal guy has a personal burn that would make your nose bleed. all in service of maximum optionality the modern deal guy can be better thought of as a "franchise" rather than a firm. the modern deal guy will generate dozens of lesser deal guys that will repeat the playbook in his stead.
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the money stuff tice brown interview is one of the most important pieces of finance media of the decade. totally insane, it’s like a tom wolfe character made flesh I have no idea why people are not listening to it
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there remains unbelievable alpha in paying attention to data broker procurement postings as well as frontier lab postings. literally a public roadmap for where the frontier is at a given moment
We’ll pay you up to $100K for every company you refer that licenses its data to @Mercor. We’ve partnered with > 500 companies so far. If you know a company with 100+ employees and data in code, gaming, manufacturing, healthcare or professional services, refer them at data.mercor.com/refer.
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for the first time, the entire world is attacker advantaged
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Will Manidis retweeted
I've been working on this thesis that Star Actors (e.g, Mary Pickford) were the first aggregators of the intangible economy and "Prophet" CEOs (e.g, Elon, Karp, etc.) are the last. Like Prophet CEOs, Star Actors were closer to religious figures than capitalists and catalyzed / generated economic complexity by a virtue of their existence. Studios, theaters, and the population all interacted around them: everything was about finding the right set of complementary economic information to unlock the latent option value of the Actor. Prophet CEOs are much the same way, and Silicon Valley is first and foremost in the business of finding Star Actors than it is technologists or capitalists. What we are all after is the ultimate technology for generating and organizing economic complexity. The Actor is more useful here than the Mathematician.
2016 seed investing questions: - Is this a talented founder? - Is this a large market? - Is this an excellent product? 2026 seed investing questions: - Is this person a future billionaire? - How much mimetic potential does this company have? - Does this company benefit from or assist a benevolent AGI?
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my very strong sense is the ways we talk and reason about biology- the structures and levels of abstraction we've identified- are likely not the correct ones. "learning on" or "zero-shotting" biology will yield new mechanisms that will allow us to make significant progress
there will be within the next few years stunning advances in biology. there will whole new ways to think about what biological study even means. i would be only mildly surprised if there were near term solutions to problems like cancer, neurodegenerative disease, etc
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Will Manidis retweeted
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nq and I wrote about this in rented virtue but the great political failing of EA and many other left coast social movements is an unwillingness to police the conduct of adherents (“our tent is big enough for all”) and this allows normies to be one shot by how weird the tails are
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I do not believe that all of the modern ai safety movement is a east sex cult, and I do believe the really concerning stuff is likely much worse (leverage) but also much less expansive than the kind of hippiesh Gold Coast eternal youth stuff that goes on between these freaks
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I do believe, however, that all these movements would much sooner and successfully advance their stated goals if they understood the argument we made in RV that formation and intra group policing are the fundamental substance of any movement that will actually survive contact
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Will Manidis retweeted
We've designed a custom stratospheric balloon platform weighing just under 10 g. anyone can build and launch one by following the docs stratolink.org
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