@windmillcapHQ

Simple portfolios. Data-driven • Windmill Capital Private Limited • SEBI-regd RA: INH200007645 • SEBI-regd PMS: INP000009852 • Dsclsr: https://xitter.cf/t.co/QT5Up3i6A5

 India
windmillcapital.smallcase.com/
Joined May 2021
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626Media
Four companies, four results that deserved more attention. A quick thread 🧵
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The RBI hiked the repo rate to 5.50% on 7 October, its first hike since February 2023. The usual reflex: higher rates, weaker stocks. We tested that against every RBI hike since 2006. Here’s what the Nifty 500 actually did 🧵
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What this means for investors: 1. A rate hike isn’t automatically bearish 2. Continued tightening hasn’t meant greater weakness 3. The bigger swings came when the hiking stopped
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Bottom line: rate hikes have been a poor standalone predictor of short-term equity returns. The better question is how growth, expectations, and earnings are moving alongside policy. This shows what followed hikes, not what they caused.
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Phoenix Mills: FY26 mall sales were ₹16,587cr, up 21%. Rent lags sales by design, with 20–30% step-ups on renewal. It also bought out Island Star Mall for ₹5,450cr. smallcase.com/blog/phoenix-m…

How Phoenix Mills Built a ₹16,500 Crore Mall Business by Letting the Rent Lag Behind the Sales

Phoenix Mills built a retail powerhouse where mall sales can grow faster than rent. Here’s how leases, renewals and rising consumption drive its growth.

smallcase.com
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Windmill Capital is a SEBI-registered RA (INH200007645). Educational only, not investment advice. Investments are subject to market risks.
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We tracked 1,075 Indian companies from Dec 2017 to Jun 2026. Every listed company worth ₹500cr+ at the start. 18 six-month snapshots. Tracked by ISIN so mergers and renames don't break the trail. The multibagger numbers you've read are mostly wrong. Here's why 🧵
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Half of today's market wasn't even here. The ₹500cr+ club nearly doubled: 1,075 to 1,841. 880 from the 2017 class. 961 new. Recent IPOs, demergers, and small caps that just grew. CG Power, BSE and Adani Green all started under ₹10,000cr and are large caps today.
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None of this says don't buy small caps. It says the odds of a 5x are ~1 in 5, the odds of keeping it are ~1 in 7, and roughly half your basket will halve on the way there. Position sizes should be built for that. Most aren't.
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