Vitality vs FUT through xK, 3 maps:
FUT: 218 kills from 169.9 xK (+48.1)
Vitality: 202 kills from 160.7 xK (+41.3)
The best single-map performance in the series was xfl0ud on Anubis: 22 kills from 12.7 xK (+9.3).
ZywOo was the only player above +3.5 on all three maps.
SunPayus on T side: 26 kills from 15.9 xK (+10.1), the biggest one-side swing in the series.
Spirit vs TYLOO through expected kills (xK):
Spirit: 133 kills from 94.3 xK (+38.7)
TYLOO: 74 kills from 65.3 xK (+8.7)
Spirit was better on both sides. TYLOO’s T side was its strength, and its CT side barely beat expectation.
FaZe vs BCGame, Dust2 + Nuke, through xK:
BCGame: 181 kills from 137.3 expected
FaZe: 158 kills from 115.3 expected
Both teams beat their xK by almost the same amount (+43.7 vs +42.7). The gap came from chances, not finishing
BIG vs The MongolZ, 3 maps (cache, inferno, mirage) through xK:
BIG: 173 kills from 131.1 expected
MongolZ: 170 kills from 131.3 expected
Almost identical on paper. BIG beat its xK by +15.5 on Cache, MongolZ by +15.5 on Inferno. On Mirage MongolZ simply had the bigger chances: 56.4 xK vs 43.9.
The best metric still slept on🙂
xK (Expected Kills) Breakdown – Spirit vs Mongolz
Spirit: 156.85 xK → 143 kills (-13.85)
Mongolz: 162 xK → 159 kills (-3)
Both teams underperformed, but Spirit left way more kills on the table.
Player diffs:
Mzinho +8.55 (47 kills!)
sh1ro +5.56
donk +0.16
tN1R -10.55
bLitz -7.61
Full visuals below
xK (Expected Kills) Breakdown – PARIVISION vs Spirit
PARIVISION: 140.6 xK → 140 kills (-0.6)
Spirit: 119.89 xK → 112 kills (-7.89)
Both teams underperformed, but Spirit with way less chances.
Player diffs:
nota +3.62
donk +5.17 🔥
zweih –2.43
magixx –5.20 😬
Full visuals below 👇
donk went absolute GOD MODE: 56 kills (42.61 xK) → +13.39 diff
Only donk & ultimate finished with positive xK diff
Team totals:
Spirit → 172 kills (162.97 xK)
Liquid → 146 kills (157.16 xK)
Full expected vs reality table below.
xK (Expected Kills) Breakdown – Falcons vs NRG
Falcons: 131.3 xK → 144 kills (+12.7 overperformance 🔥)
NRG: 143.85 xK → 149 kills (+5.15)
NRG came in with the higher expected output… but FLC showed way more clutch overperformance!
Player diffs:
Sonic +9.34
Nucleonz +7.49
😬 kyxsan –6.7 (ouch)
Full visuals below 👇
Astralis beat FaZe 2-1 in ESL Pro League yesterday.
FaZe was creating way better chances overall, but one game decided everything.
Jabbi was deciding player as he overperformed his 37,59 expected kills with crazy 49 kills, but he wasn't alone, as top 3 players of this match up were all from Astralis (+staer +6 xK diff and phzy +6 xK diff)
G2 — 133.48 xK (127 kills, -6.48 diff)
MOUZ — 176.59 xK (174 kills, -2.59 diff)
G2 once again struggled to create expected kills. They’re usually solid at converting chances, but you can’t win games when the gap is this big.