Determined bettor. Small bets. Big odds. Daily experiments. Results posted.
Joined December 2021
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8/3 MLB card. One play per game, built off run differential + park factors + pitching matchups. Sizing small across the board. Not financial advice / bet responsibly. Let’s go🧵1/9
8/3 MLB home run card. Built off HR/PA rates + Baseball Savant park factors. Park matters more than most people price in 🧵 1/10
FADES:
❌ Paredes +500 — 5.9% barrel rate
❌ Yainer Díaz +600 — 5.7% barrel
❌ Entire Wrigley board — 100 index, neutral
❌ Entire Globe Life board — 92, 2nd-worst park
Barrel rate is the screen. ~85% of HR are barreled balls.
🧵 9/10
🔷 YANKEES −200 vs STL
Better team, and Schlittler is the best starter on the entire slate.
Chalky price, but it’s the right side.
🧵 8/9
After that performance John Collins is at the top of the banned list until proven otherwise #nba #clippers #nbabetting
