
trading addict | prediction markets | founder @xspreadmap
Gemistan
Joined December 2021
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大家好,我的中国朋友们!
predict.fun 上的每一笔交易,都可以同时给你积分和钱:额外赚 0.5% 到 4%。
这是 predictfun 和 Pinnacle 之间的套利。一边刷积分,另一边保护本金。不管比分如何,交易都会以盈利结算。
如何用套利刷积分:
1 - 打开 spreadmap.io
2 - 激活 3 天免费试用
3 - 进入 Filters,选择 Pinnacle 和预测市场(PMs)
4 - 给这些平台充值
5 - 研究清楚结算和退款规则
6 - 等待套利机会
最有价值的是带 predictfun 的套利。利润一样,还能额外拿积分,所以这类组合要优先下手。
给看到这里的朋友:在 spreadmap traders 群的 updates 话题里,还有 +7 天免费订阅等你来领。
spreadmap.io
出分啦 @predictdotfun
第42周发了870w的积分
比上周多发了70w的积分
43周马上也要结束了
44周开始 我要去玩足球比赛 lol比赛
真的单靠一个btc5min市场我是真拿不到什么积分啊😭
我心里是算着 在48周结束
所以大概还有5周 可以够我去拿积分
10月12日晚上几场五大联赛,用克劳德Claude 分析了一下
从今晚开始 我也将加入足球预测当中
我看球习惯先看盘口的隐含概率,用的是 Pinnacle 去掉抽水后的数,再对照 Predict 的价格,基本差不多。
1️⃣亚特兰大 vs 威尼斯(00:30)
今晚最稳的一场,亚特兰大不败。威尼斯 5 轮 0 分垫底,近 5 场丢了 13 个球,亚特兰大虽然状态一般,但主场打这种对手没理由输。市场给的不败概率大概 83%。
比分看 2-0、2-1,进球数 2-3 个。
Predict 上在"威尼斯胜"买 NO 就行。
2️⃣都灵 vs 乌迪内斯(02:45)
三项概率是 39 / 31 / 30,接近,平局概率不低。倾向都灵不败加小球,2.5 球以下市场给 56%。
比分 1-1、1-0。这场小玩。
3️⃣考文垂 vs 纽卡斯尔(03:00)
纽卡不败。考文垂升班马打了 5 轮只进 1 个球,主场两场都没进球,5 场里没有一场是双方都进球的。纽卡拿了 8 分,已经连续 14 场有进球。
比分 0-1、1-1、0-2,双方进球选否。
Predict 上在"考文垂胜"买 NO。
4️⃣莱万特 vs 塞维利亚(03:00)
不碰胜负。三项 35 / 30 / 35,跟抛硬币差不多。真要玩就小球。
总结一下:亚特兰大不败最稳,纽卡不败次之,莱万特这场别猜胜负。
胜率再高也会输,83% 就是 6 场里输 1 场,别串关,小注玩。(仅供参考,不构成投资建议,盈亏自负)
i found a way to find Polymarket insiders.
one of their trades made +400% in a day. there was a 6 hour window to open the position.
this post is the step by step guide:
this wasn't a one-off. maduro, the iran ceasefire, axiom: every time, fresh wallets opened big positions hours before the news and walked away with anywhere from $480k to over $1M.
and every time, those positions were visible in advance.
an insider leaves three traces:
> the wallet is new: less than 2 days old, almost no trades
> the position is huge for this market: more than 2% of its whole daily volume
> the market is quiet: under $50k traded a day
a typical insider wallet: polymarket.com/profile/0xdde…
open its trade history and scroll all the way down: first trade ever, and straight away $30k on a US strike on iran.
how to catch the next one:
1 - open the free bot: github.com/pselamy/polymarke…
2 - send the link to claude code and ask it to set it up on a remote server, not your own computer. the bot has to run 24/7, insiders won't wait for you to wake up. it runs in docker and doesn't need your wallet key
3 - connect telegram, that's where the alerts will land
4 - the bot checks all three traces on every new position on Polymarket by itself
5 - got an alert: open the market and go in on the same side while the price is still near the insider's entry
now you're kind of an insider too.
good luck!
大家好,我的中国朋友们!
我做了一个服务,刷积分的同时还能赚钱。
predict.fun 的 TGE 很可能会成为今年最大的机会。市场给出的概率是 90%,代币会在 2026 年内发行。
怎么做:
一边在 predict.fun 下单,用来刷积分。
另一边在 Polymarket 或 Pinnacle 买相反的结果。
不同平台的价格会有差距,靠这个价差套利,每笔 0.5% 起的利润,无论比分如何都赚。
比赛结束后拿走利润,继续下一场。
这些组合扫描器会自动帮你找到,界面支持中文。
免费试用 3 天,在 spreadmap traders 群的 updates 话题里还有 +7 天的优惠码。
spreadmap.io
嗯哼 @EnHeng456 Predictdotfun的 TGE 是今年最值得关注的机会之一。
赵赵 @0xzhaozhao:Predict,我已经准备好了 4w U。
CZ:Lol,我也来玩玩。
我:共识已现。🤝
预测市场龙一的位置,我押 Predict。
最适合国人体质的预测市场。
TGE,只是开始。
+$500k on sports this week. one wallet buying on Polymarket cheaper than the books.
here's step by step guide:
by game time the book knows everything - lineups, injuries, and where the pro money went.
on Polymarket the market is made by regular people, so the price is sometimes cheaper.
say you buy an outcome at 55c and the book has it at 58c. that little spread is what you can take before the game starts.
how to copy it:
1 - pick a game 1-3 hours before start
2 - find it at a sportsbook and turn the odds into cents with 1/odds.
say one game has 2 outcomes at odds 1.80 and 2.10. in cents that's 55.6 and 47.6, together 103.2. the extra 3.2 is the book's cut.
3 - divide each price by 1.032 and you get the fair 54c and 46c.
4 - put a limit order on Polymarket a bit below the fair price and wait for someone to sell to you.
build a simple calculator in claude code for all the math above. that's your first step toward automating this.
here's his profile: polymarket.com/profile/0x526…
he makes roughly 50% of his profit before the game. the other part he makes live
there’s also alpha
> saturday night
> your friend sends you an arb screen
> +$420 either way
> you ask where he found it
> he sends you a link to a scanner
> there's like 200 of these a day
> 15 minutes later you've got your own arb
> Polymarket on one side, a book on the other
> your first $20 for one minute of work
> next morning both legs settled
> profit's already in your balance
> the whole process is in this video
> 3 days free on spreadmap.io
> +7 free days promo in the chat
> saturday night
> your friend sends you an arb screen
> +$420 either way
> you ask where he found it
> he sends you a link to a scanner
> there's like 200 of these a day
> 15 minutes later you've got your own arb
> Polymarket on one side, a book on the other
> your first $20 for one minute of work
> next morning both legs settled
> profit's already in your balance
> the whole process is in this video
> 3 days free on spreadmap.io
> +7 free days promo in the chat
HOW TO: $12,000 a month on sports arb.
here's the whole path, step by step:
the whole thing in one sentence: you take one side of a match on Polymarket, the other side at a sportsbook, and lock in your profit before it even starts.
then you do it again, every day
1. pick a sport to start with:
> esports
> baseball
> basketball
i counted around 200 arbs a day across these three. each one pays 2%+ ROI and stays up for over a minute
2. open your accounts and fund them:
> Polymarket or any Prediction Market
> one or two crypto sportsbooks
3. sign up for the arb scanner:
spreadmap.io
4. set your filters:
> markets: pre-match
> sports: CS2, Esports, LoL
> venues: your platforms
what to skip:
> Polymarket price in the 50-55¢ range: high chance the match gets canceled
> an arb with 80% ROI: an anomaly that'll most likely get canceled
normal ROI per trade: 1-6%
5. pick an arb:
the scanner has already worked out how much to put on Polymarket and how much at the sportsbook. then open both trades back to back.
wait for the match to end
collect your profit
open the next arb
save this post and go through the steps when you've got a free evening
POV: you watched random guys make $500/day with sports arbitrage
and still had no idea how they kept finding so many profitable opportunities
avg $1,230/day on Polymarket. it comes from changes in the weather forecast, which is free and open to everyone.
the setup guide is in this post
the market already prices the forecast itself pretty accurately.
the money shows up the moment the forecast changes and the price hasn't yet.
how it works in practice:
when a new forecast for the next day comes out and the temperature in it moved by at least 0.5°C, you buy the option one degree closer to the new forecast.
say the morning forecast promised 16.8°C in London, so the 17°C option is the priciest. in the afternoon a new forecast comes out with 15.8°C. your job is to buy 16°C while it's still cheap.
the buy range where the EDGE holds: 5¢ to 60¢. the faster you do it, the higher your ROI
how to set it up:
1 - get forecasts for free on Open-Meteo. it has the american GFS model and the european ECMWF. use the airport coordinates, that's where Polymarket measures the temperature.
2 - the bot should check on a timer whether a new forecast is out, and if it is, compare it to the previous one.
3 - if tomorrow's high moved by 0.5°C or more, the bot buys the option one degree closer to the new forecast.
4 - keep each trade under $25. cheap sellers on these markets are thin, and more size will eat the edge.
one bot trades these forecast shifts across 50 cities every hour.
in september that's avg $1,230/day
here's the profile: polymarket.com/@Bilberry?via…
$700/day on the 5m BTC market.
Polymarket x Binance.
it repeats hundreds of times a day.
the whole thing fits in one line: when to buy, at what price and how fast.
the bot watches BTC on Binance and uses it to work out what the UP share on Polymarket should cost right now. if that price jumps 20c+ within 5 seconds and goes over 60c, while Polymarket is still selling the share 10c+ cheaper, you buy in that same second.
say the window opened at 83,200. in 5 seconds BTC on Binance goes from 83,215 to 83,330, with 2 minutes left in the window. by the math UP goes from 55c to 77c, and Polymarket is still selling it at 56c. that's a 21c gap, you buy.
how to run it yourself:
prices on Polymarket are set by people and bots who watch Binance and adjust to the price there. so Binance is what we care about first.
we're waiting for sharp price jumps.
what we're after is the gap between Binance and Polymarket.
here's the edge:
first - your bot has to tie the $ price on Binance to the share price (¢) on Polymarket.
second - the bot has to compare the exchange price and PM every second.
the moment a 10c spread shows up, the bot opens a trade on Polymarket in that same second, in the direction Binance moved.
here's a wallet that traded it:
polymarket.com/@dgdgt345dfgd…
the market gives 83% odds that the predict.fun token launches before the end of the year. farming it can make you $200/day.
this post is the step-by-step guide
the last project backed by Binance dropped 704M tokens in its airdrop. at the peak that was about $12k per wallet.
predict fun has the same backer and it's already built into Binance Wallet. no token yet, but they're hinting it's coming soon
to farm it you open two trades on the same event, on opposite outcomes.
that's how you farm points on predict fun and make 3-6% per trade off sports arbitrage
here's how:
1 - make an account on predict fun and 1-2 crypto sportsbooks
2 - open the arb scanner - spreadmap.io
3 - set your filters: pre-match, esports (easiest one to start with), venues predict fun plus the books you signed up for and funded. that's how you farm points and get paid.
4 - find a trade with 3-6% ROI
5 - open it.
when the match ends, collect your profit, move your capital around and open the next trade.
make sure you use the trial, it gives you 3 days of free access. in the spreadmap traders chat, in the updates thread, there's a bonus promo for 4 more days of your subscription.
if the token gets delayed you lose nothing: the profit from your trades is yours right away, and the points keep stacking
$POLY isn't out yet, and farming it already pays 3-6% a day. just open two trades on the same match.
the whole path is in this post
HYPE was worth $4.2b on airdrop day, now it's $86b. people who farmed it early got $13k per wallet on average.
Polymarket makes 4x more, and its token hasn't launched yet
you can farm it at a profit: take one side of a match on Polymarket and the other at a sportsbook.
the first trade goes toward your airdrop volume, the second locks in your profit before the match even starts, thanks to arbitrage
here's how:
1 - make an account on Polymarket and 1-2 crypto sportsbooks
2 - open the arb scanner - spreadmap.io
3 - set your filters: pre-match, esports (easiest one to start with), venues Polymarket plus the books you signed up for and funded. that's how you make volume for the drop and get paid.
4 - find a trade with 3-6% ROI
5 - open it.
when the match ends, collect your profit, move your capital around and open the next trade.
make sure you use the trial, it gives you 3 days of free access. in the spreadmap traders chat, in the start here thread, there's a bonus promo for 3 more days of your subscription.
when $POLY launches, you'll show up to the airdrop with your volume already farmed and your profit already looted
GTA VI on Polymarket pays ~40% APR. it looks like a nobrain trade
and here's why:
pre-orders are already open and rockstar set pre-load for november 12.
in 19 years rockstar has never pushed a set GTA date with less than 75 days to go. right now there are 45 left
take-two has $8B of annual revenue riding on november 19.
in August they confirmed the date to investors one more time.
there's only one risk.
in 2010 Rockstar pushed Red Dead Redemption back 3 weeks, 55 days before release.
if GTA VI goes the same way, release slides into december and YES goes to zero.
market's here, November 30 line:
polymarket.com/event/gta-vi-…
my crypto lore
first crypto bought: ETH 2017
first memecoin bought: DOGE
biggest bag: USDT
biggest fumble: bought a Milady Maker for 7.2 eth right at the peak, around $28,000 at the time. at least now she looks good as my pfp
favorite crypto: $HYPE
your turn
my crypto lore
first crypto bought: btc 2022
first memecoin bought: pepe
biggest bag: USDC
biggest fumble: in 2022 I chose P2P instead of on-chain activities
favorite crypto: $HYPE
your turn
HOW TO MAKE MONEY ON SPORTS ARB
1. open an arb scanner
2. pick a sport you know at least a little
3. wait for an arb
4. open both sportsbooks
5. double-check the odds
6. open the trade
7. 12 hours later, collect +$886 profit
here's the scanner, 3-day free trial:
spreadmap.io
farming the $POLY airdrop costs you nothing.
i know a guy who did $348k vol for $0
this might be the biggest airdrop in crypto history, the company is valued at $21b.
to make volume you have to trade.
but you can skip that part!!
here's how:
1 - open an event with a bunch of outcomes. elections, sports leagues, whatever
2 - split $1 into a YES + NO pair on one candidate. technically it's not trading, you just swapped a dollar for shares
3 - convert the NO and you get YES on every other candidate. simple logic: him losing (NO) = someone else winning (YES)
4 - sell all the YES and you get back almost everything you put in. this is the step where the airdrop volume gets made
5 - one loop costs you about 0.9% in fees. part of it comes back as rebates if you sell with limit orders instead of hitting bids - that's the cheapest way to run it
IMPORTANT! pick liquid events, the bids are already sitting there for you to dump your positions into.
on fresh markets the book is empty, so you risk sitting on locked funds and going negative
here's the guy farming the drop this way: polymarket.com/@kneelbeforet…
but don't look at his PnL.
with almost half a million in "profit" his biggest actual win is $354. the rest comes from an entry price of a couple cents that he never paid
this wallet pulls $320 a day out of weather markets on Polymarket. it started with less than $1,000
the whole thing is two buttons:
the first one puts him in the book on both sides of the same market.
the second one turns the pair he collected back into a dollar, before the market even resolves.
i reverse engineered his loop step by step.
here's how he runs it:
1 - he takes the daily weather markets. every degree is its own outcome. that's about 130 events a day
2 - one event (one city) runs him about 58 trades and $155
3 - he stands on both sides: NO around 76c, YES around 21c. 81% of his fills land on limit orders, the rest he picks up at market
4 - once the set is complete he swaps it for $1. the gap between the buck and what the set cost him is his margin
the set doesn't always come together. what's left hanging he just sits on until it resolves, and that's about the same money again.
43% of his orders go in before the day even starts in that city.
the same dollar goes around the loop all day long.
that's how he's bought $1.27m of contracts while never holding more than $975 of his own money in play
here's his profile: polymarket.com/@0x496f76bd5c…
my Polymarket stack that brings in $150,000 a year. every tool here is ready to go, just grab it and use it.
bookmark it
this stack lets you spot moves early, get in at the best price and catch pricing gaps across platforms. put together, that's your edge
@Polysights - their insider finder tracks wallets that win consistently and shows where they're putting money. ready-made trade ideas
@xspreadmap - where i find sports arbitrage between Polymarket and sportsbooks. i bet both sides and pocket the difference either way. my average ROI is 3.5% per trade
@kairostradex - i open positions through it at the best price. it sees prices on three platforms at once and fills wherever it's cheaper. backed by a16z
@Poly_Helper - puts a bonds tab right on the market page: almost-resolved markets with annualized yield. not farming their points for the airdrop, i'm here for the bonds













