Hearing uproar about bet365 limits across all sports. Some sports are apparently down to just 25% of their previous liability limits. I guess the new business model football customers staking £100 a week on accas with an average return of just 60p for every £1 staked. That’s £40 a week in expected net losses per customer. Get a few million of those and you’ve got yourself a very profitable business model. Seems big stakers are no longer wanted, winners or losers. Too much regulation, safer gambling checks and scrutiny. Wouldn't surprise me if the black market gets even bigger as a result.

Even the hottest winning streaks must be viewed in the context of variance. The same goes for the coldest losing streaks.

Who wins on @Polymarket? A study of 2.4 million accounts and $67bn in volume found that 69% lost money. The top 1% of winners captured 76.5% of all gains. The top 0.1% placed 47% of their volume as makers, compared with 17% for the bottom 95%. Same lesson as Betfair: the market rewards those who supply liquidity. Read the paper and tell me what stands out: cepr.org/publications/dp2161…

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Nice work by @scoremon_com and thanks @12Xpert for sharing. Here is my 50c: Real Pinnacle opening and closing lines from api.bettingiscool.com, every match since 2021 (1.67M events, 43 sports). Closing beats opening on Brier in every sport, t = −108 pooled. @scoremon_com null is a baseball artefact: MLB openers barely move (our MLB in their window: −0.001 ±0.001, same as theirs). Soccer alone: t = −82.