Thank you for this. However I would caution against falling in the easy “Le Pen vs Melenchon” narrative which is not representative of what the betting markets are telling us.
David Lisnard has been making huge strides lately and is fiscally very conservative/responsible. He’s the French Milei (and so is @knafo_sarah but unfortunately she is not running).
He’s just not polled (yet) bc started from too low.
A small bull flag (In red in the chart below) sitting above the breakout of a much larger bull flag (in white) tends to represent acceptance of the breakout rather than exhaustion.
However, the small flag often isn't resolved cleanly. Markets frequently produce downside probes, retests of the breakout level, or several weeks of frustrating sideways action before continuing higher.
The important warning signal isn't simply the small flag breaking slightly downward. It's price moving materially back into the large prior consolidation and remaining there. That changes the historical character of the setup substantially.
So:
Large breakout → small consolidation above old resistance → bullish
Temporary undercut/retest → rapid recovery → still generally constructive
Sustained move back inside the old large flag → significantly weaker setup / possible failed breakout
The location of the small flag relative to the major breakout level therefore appears more informative than the precise shape of the small flag itself.
Recent occurrences studied:
NDX 2016–17 (bullish), NDX October 2017 (bullish), SPX 2016 (bullish), 2019 (failure), SPX/NDX 2024 (bullish)
$QQQ $SPY $SPX $ES $NQ $ES_F $NQ_F
Credit to ChatGPT
E.g. “it’s very positive for CPUs, hence $INTC.
Intel is trading at 53x already. Are you sure it’s not priced in already?
Seeing a lot of comments over the last few days on Muse, CPU demand etc…
One has to make a distinction between a brand new technology/innovation the market hasn’t priced yet, and a brand new technology/innovation we knew was coming and stocks already anticipated.
We knew agents were coming. Remember OpenClaw?
Sure, Muse/Instinct are better.
But it’s not because Audi releases a new better model that the car industry will rip.
I don’t have the answer to my question (yet), but before you get excited about this and that stocks, ask yourselves what were those stocks pricing before.
Is the breakdown in Oil prices leading to rotation out of AI? Too soon to say, as there is no evidence investors are unwinding their AI trades. But there is evidence they are putting money to work in cyclical themes. $XLF continues to power through after the breakout mentioned 10 days ago, and $IWM and $XLI (small caps and industrials), to name a few, are breaking out of their ranges.
Notable relative strength for $XLF today who continues to power through despite the broad market weakness. Bull flag breakout looks to be confirmed.
