The American Action Forum is a policy institute with forward-looking research on the most pressing domestic, economic policy challenges.
Washington, DC
Joined January 2010
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American Action Forum retweeted
New @AAF paper in @politico's Morning Energy today:
U.S. residential heating oil prices surged 74% y-o-y to $6.19/gallon in October.
At Sen. Susan Collins and Angus King's request, DOE will release up to one third of the Northeast Reserve by Nov. 13.
But 315,000 barrels are a drop in the bucket of needed supply: it accounts for less than one day of total U.S. consumption of heating oil in the winter season, and about 12 days of residential consumption in Maine.
The emergency release is unlikely to deliver meaningful consumer price relief.
Might be of interest to @scottlincicome @JigarShahDC @JEBistline @MichaelGiberso3 @robinsonmeyer
@CalliePatteson
American Action Forum retweeted
The U.S.-China Board of Trade:
You might recall a few weeks ago President Trump met with leader Xi of China at the White House. The summit provided more info on the board of trade and the new “30-for-30” framework.
The 30-for-30 framework proposes tariff reductions on $30 billion worth of each country’s imports.
My research explores the board of trade, what imports are on the proposed tariff reduction lists, and the likelihood this comes to fruition. Take a look!
#Tariff #China #Trade #BoardofTrade #Trump
americanactionforum.org/rese…
American Action Forum retweeted
"I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a correction that looks like the dot-com bubble."
@djheakin of @AAF on AI and the economy: good growth numbers, but built on a narrow base. #FacingTheFuture
Tune in: youtu.be/9d_BC68OBv4
American Action Forum retweeted
U.S. 10-year yields have risen even more than France's.
@djheakin of @AAF on the good-news story (AI-driven productivity) and the two bad-news stories (higher expected inflation, Treasury credit risk). #FacingTheFuture
Full episode: youtu.be/9d_BC68OBv4
American Action Forum retweeted
Status of the IEEPA Tariff Refund Process in Phase 1 and 2 (As of October 2, 2026)
It’s been a while but here’s an update on tariff refunds. Things are progressing and US businesses are rightfully getting their money back.
#Tariff #Trade
American Action Forum retweeted
Higher Prices and Growing Disapproval:
Poll after poll shows that Americans are concerned about the cost of living. This ties in to the dissatisfaction with current tariff policy which (clearly) raises consumer prices.
See below for a fun read! #Trade
americanactionforum.org/ship…
American Action Forum retweeted
Who's really in charge of yields? Hosted by @ElianJacobs22
@djheakin: $2T deficits are "literally unsustainable"
@pboockvar: Japan's 10y jump from 0.04% to 3% moved global rates
@GeneralTheorist: AI capex + deficits need foreign capital, lifting yields
xitter.cf/i/spaces/1jGXgBoBDrBKZ
American Action Forum retweeted
My latest for @AAF discusses the agreement among AI firms to pace the frontier and explores alternatives to a blanket antitrust exemption.
American Action Forum retweeted
You know things are truly dire when @djheakin feels compelled to write about France.
American Action Forum retweeted
New @AAF paper featured in @politico's Morning Energy today:
The #SCOTUS heard oral arguments on a major #climate case: Suncor v. Boulder. Five potential rulings and their policy implications in our analysis.
Highlights:
-The 8-justice panel spent a lot of time questioning Suncor the issue of federal preemption.
-Chief Justice Roberts, Justice Thomas and Justice Gorsuch questioned Boulder the practicality of a hypothetical ruling that would allow Boulder to prevail.
-A procedural exit seems less likely.
-The Court could reach a 4-4 divide.
Link to paper in response.
Might be of interest to @jadler1969
@CalliePatteson @mara_hop @JigarShahDC @ValerieVolco @MelissaQuinn97 @lesleyclark @alexcguillen @EnergyBrief @SCOTUSblog @SiegelScribe @robinsonmeyer @jjouvenal @bradplumer @JEBistline @TedNordhaus @AbbieVanSickle @jfritze @lawrencehurley
American Action Forum retweeted
My latest @AAF piece, in which I take a look at where the Trump Admin's EO 14192 regulatory budget stands coming out of FY 2026
American Action Forum retweeted
Deficits, Yields and the Fed. Who Is Really in Charge?
Join us on Wednesday, October 7 at 5 PM UTC for a live discussion featuring:
@djheakin
@pboockvar
@GeneralTheorist
@PKurzin
Hosted by @ElianJacobs22
Set a reminder and bring your questions 👇
xitter.cf/i/spaces/1lJQRWLaaQkxE
American Action Forum retweeted
Tune in @AAF's latest podcast, @djheakin, @kylebaccei, Jordan Haring and I discussed the economy and a potential U.S. diesel export ban!
americanactionforum.org/mult…
American Action Forum retweeted
In a previous episode of #FacingTheFuture, @djheakin laid out the mechanics of a debt crisis: an interest rate spike triggers a recession, the recession worsens the debt, and lenders start cutting you off entirely.
Hear more: youtube.com/watch?v=uX1TvEFq…
American Action Forum retweeted
"It is time to stop treating the outcome of tariff policy as a hypothetical. The experiment was run in 2001 and failed. It was re-run on a grand scale since 2017 and failed. It is not good economic policy. And in a month it will prove to be poor politics as well" 🔥 mailchi.mp/americanactionfor…
American Action Forum retweeted
I’m excited to share that I’ve joined the @AAF as a Quantitative Policy Analyst!
I’m looking forward to bringing my broad policy background and analytical skills to enhance my the American Action Forum’s already excellent economic policy work.
I’m especially grateful to everyone who offered advice, made introductions, and supported me throughout this transition. I look forward to getting started and contributing to the important work being done at AAF.
American Action Forum retweeted
Good reminder from @djheakin of @AAF: Uncle Sam is piling on the debt so fast Congress will soon have to debate the debt limit again. Add it to the list of potential lame duck priorities.
americanactionforum.org/dail…
American Action Forum retweeted
The U.S.-China Summit:
This week’s edition of my trade newsletter focuses on the Trump-Xi meeting and the status of U.S.-China economic relations.
China has yet to fulfill most of its commitments from May and expectations remain low for today.
#China
americanactionforum.org/ship…
American Action Forum retweeted
In case you missed it, in a new @AAF daily dish, @djheakin calls for "cooler heads to prevail" and the administration to say no to an diesel export ban.
New @AAF analysis:
A diesel export ban is a bad policy idea!
-U.S. diesel prices are driven by global supply and demand.
-America is a surplus diesel producer, with 5.3 million b/d in production, exceeding 3.6 million b/d in total demand.
-U.S. refining capacity concentrated in the Gulf Coast, other regions, e.g. New England, do not have easy access to domestic supply due to infrastructure and logistics constraints; they have to import some diesel.
-A sustained export ban would force refiners to cut production, which means higher prices in gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel.
-It would exacerbate the global energy shock, further driving up global diesel prices. Latin America and Europe will be hit especially hard.
✅Rather than an export ban, policymakers should ease winter supply frictions by extending the Jones Act waiver and removing burdensome preclearance rules.
Might be of interest to @scottlincicome @JJensen2020 @clark_packard @snlester @cpgrabow @bencahillenergy @gbrew24
