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Arbitrum
Joined February 2023
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FOMC: Oct 28, 18:00 UTC.
The Fed is expected to hold rates at 3.75–4.00%.
BTC has bounced from recent lows as Russia–Ukraine peace efforts return to focus. The Fed decision is the next test for that rebound.
Last time, BTC traded through a 1.97% range in the first hour after the decision.
Be ready for sharp swings as BTC looks to build on its recovery.
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FOMC: Oct 28, 18:00 UTC.
A hold is expected. A December hike remains in play.
Less urgency to hike could help BTC’s current trend continue.
A hawkish hold could send BTC lower.
Be ready for sharp swings around the decision.
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Up to 1000x leverage.
US flash PMI is due Oct 23 at 13:45 UTC.
Consensus: Manufacturing 55.5 / Services 58.0.
Last release: BTC fell 1.77% in the first hour.
Softer growth and easing price pressures could help BTC’s rebound continue.
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BTC is stuck in a tight range. CPI could change that.
Neither buyers nor sellers have taken control. The next inflation print could bring the volatility that pushes price beyond the box.
Sep 11 CPI day: BTC spiked $3,797 from its intraday low of $76,040 to $79,837.
October 14. 12:30 UTC.
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Bitcoin enters the Fed decision and the CLARITY cloture vote with BTC-denominated open interest down 13.5%.
One reprices crypto’s cost of capital. The other reprices its U.S. regulatory cost.
xitter.cf/SantimentData/status/2…
Everyone is watching Tuesday’s cloture vote and Wednesday’s Fed. The positioning data says the market already made its move.
📊 Coin-denominated open interest fell from 321,497 BTC on Sep 3 to 278,151 on Sep 11. Down 43,346 coins, or 13.5%.
📉 Price fell 5% over the same stretch, so this was not a valuation effect.
🔀 Positioning sits about 20% below where it was before the mid-August rally.
🧭 The slide stopped on Sep 11 and has ticked up for two sessions since. The de-risking happened ahead of the week, not during it.
The headlines arrive Tuesday, the positioning moved last week.
🔗 Explore BTC open interest in Sanbase: app.santiment.net/charts/btc…
Santiment data shows BTC-denominated open interest fell from 321,497 BTC on September 3 to 278,151 BTC on September 11, down 13.5%, while price fell about 5%.
OI stopped falling on September 11. The de-risking predates both policy events.
Supply also reached the market through airdrop claims and market-maker inventory. According to Lookonchain, cited by IBTimes, Wintermute received 2.5M LAPTOP from the team and sold 466,255 for about $2.08M.