David Bush

#Bitcoin has once again stalled - but still holds - against its 365-day VWAP, the subtle declining red line on the bitcoin:native daily chart here. Past tests have seen quick retreats, but not this time, at least so far. I’ll be looking for more chop, followed by further upside in time.

Semi ETF $SMH is now down more than 16% in just 25 days. Buying MOC with a 5-day hold, the stats since 2000: Avg Trade: +2.54% Hit Rate: 68.2% Profit Factor: 2.61 Decent bull edge and statistically significant. Common setup during the DotCom bear — a potential concern.

#Bitcoin’s current adventure below its 200sma is now the 4th longest streak in its history. That is, consecutive days closing < 200sma. Here are all streaks with at least 30 straight days below the 200sma. The 3-year return from the last day below has always been positive. Full read and context in my latest Substack.

I'm a Saylor skeptic. Not just recently as his TradFi scaffolding around Bitcoin comes under pressure, but a skeptic in better times. Why? Because Finance and Hubris almost always end in a nasty divorce. That said, despite the many challenges Strategy (MSTR) potentially faces, MSTR's STRETCH% reading is the 3rd deepest ever. These have been reliable bounce indications for traders with experience & discipline. Risk management is paramount in these trades. *research not advice

Even a partial unraveling of any part of Strategy’s TradFi empire could have a potentially dramatic short-term effect on #Bitcoin and accelerate the cycle bottom. The most compelling chart right now in crypto isn’t even crypto. It’s $STRC. Full analysis in my latest REKTelligence Report. Cheers

Compared to recent years, there’s a shift under way. The Top 20 stocks inside the #SP500 have carried the index for 2 of the last 3 years. In 2026, however, the bottom (roughly) 480 are driving YTD returns. While many debate “is this the top”, breadth remains strong.

Unless “this time is different”, #Bitcoin will have to trade below the #RealizedPrice of the network, the Realized Price of Short-Term Holders and the Realized Price of Long-Term Holders before it can successfully bottom. While traders equipped with proven edges can capitalize in all environments, investors will want to look for the LT Holders to enter into pain as Bitcoin falls below their average cost basis (purple). In prior cycles, this has occurred just before $BTC bottoms. I’d welcome this time to be different, but it’s not data-supported.