@AstorAaron

Historian of the 19th Century U.S. and Professor at Gettysburg College. Author of Rebels on the Border and Civil War along Tennessee's Cumberland Plateau

 Gettysburg, PA
Joined June 2009
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  • Following2.8K
  • Followers25.1K
18.5KMedia
Bo Nix with the 62yd TD run! (He's looked awful as a passer...) – at Gettysburg, PA
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Here it is. xitter.cf/Broncos/status/2114467… – at Gettysburg, PA
Denver Broncos
@Broncos16h
62 YARDS TO THE 🏠 @bonix10 | 📺: CBS
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Some of these partisan-turnout numbers among younger voters are nuts. In NC, 55,291 Dems (18-29yo) have voted; just 11,982 GOPers (18-29yo) have done so. In 2024, the two parties were almost even among 18-29 early voters. Does NCGOP expect those young GOPers to vote on E-Day? – at Gettysburg, PA
Dj@DjsokeSpeakingOct 25
18-29 turnout by party reg in NC second table is what percentage of total votes is coming from 18-29 voters, overall a meaningfully younger electorate than 2022 so far, but very asymmetric
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Vols choked that one away. – at Gettysburg, PA
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Tense game! Glad the Brewers held on. – at Gettysburg, PA
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I said Dems should do this the moment Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs. Glad they followed through.
Scott Lincicome
@scottlincicomeOct 23
Just such a fun chart here from @greg_ip. If only we could tease out some meaning. Ah, well, nevertheless. 🤣
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The best indicator of what will happen in the midterm election is the most obvious one: Trump's job approval. Now compare today to 12 days before the 2018 election. In 2018, Trump's job approval in RCP was net -7.4. Today it is net -21.7. – at Gettysburg, PA
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This doesn’t tell you who will win a given Senate race. The map and candidate quality matter there. But the underlying national picture, which is connected to Presidential job approval, will have a major effect on even modestly competitive Senate races.
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The remaining 27% are voting for Roger Clinton. – at Gettysburg, PA
Political Polls
@PpollingNumbersOct 22
New - 2028 presidential poll - National 🔵 Hunter Biden 37% 🔴 Donald Trump Jr. 36% UMass Lowell - LV - 10/4
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1756 map from Tobias Conrad Lotter of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York in German and Latin. – at Gettysburg, PA
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Pretty obvious that this is happening. There's no other way you get RV screens that are bluer than LV screens as if we're still in the Obama years. These same pollsters (Marist and Fox) even show the more enthusiastic voters are even more Dem. So they're just hedging. – at Gettysburg, PA
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538Oct 21
IDK, it seems like certain pollsters are concerned their samples are too D, maybe for good reasons and maybe not, and are using their likely voter models to curb that.
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Good morning, General Meade.
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Trump’s message has always been, “I’m getting my own…and I’m helping you get your own.” That message worked as long as people felt they were getting ahead too. But when they’re falling behind, his corruption becomes a real political liability.
Matt Welch
@MattWelchOct 20
The Trump corruption issue is like the Biden cognitive decline issue in one key sense: Everyone around the president or even supporting him professionally from afar should be asked about it, and their lies/claims of ignorance should be hung around their necks like dumbbells.
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Does Bibi really think this will help Trump or Republicans? – at Gettysburg, PA
Clash Report
@clashreportOct 18
Netanyahu to Americans: If you're worried about today's gas prices, think of what will happen if Iran gets nuclear weapons, something that Trump and I will never allow. And when that happens, when that threat of that regime disappears, gas prices will go down. But only under Trump. It's not going to happen with those who want to accommodate and appease these tyrants.
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🚨 🚨 BRAKING 🚨 🚨 Rumors are now circulating that Kim Jong Un, the elected president of South Korea, has past away I am working to confirm via my sources, but this would be a major disruption for Asia’s largest economic power
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If you thought Twitter/X was real life you'd think Stacy Garrity was about to beat Josh Shapiro for PA Governor. – at Gettysburg, PA
Drew Savicki
@DrewSavOct 19
Always fascinates me how the Massachusetts local news comments sections on both Twitter and Facebook skew so heavily Republican, in spite of the state's massive blue lean.
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All the teams in the AFC North and NFC North have winning records. – at Gettysburg, PA
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1900 census entry from Baltimore, Maryland of George H. Ruth and Katie Schamberger Ruth. George was a lightning rod salesman. Kate's parents were born in Baden, Germany. Their son, George H. Jr. was 5 years old. Still a babe...before he became Babe Ruth. – at Gettysburg, PA
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Not sure if it means much in the end, but per the ABC/WaPo poll, "Democratic Socialism" polls higher than "The Republican Party." And MUCH higher than "The MAGA movement." Probably more meaningful is that "The Democratic Party" polls better than "The Republican Party." – at Gettysburg, PA
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Approval of "The Democratic Party" was in the toilet the last few years, driven mostly by Dem voters angry at their own party. It looks like now Republican voters are angry at their own party (like during the Obama years). Not sure what effect that has on the election outcome. – at Gettysburg, PA
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