Software developer, flight tracking, ship tracking, geopolitics
Joined January 2026
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AtlasObserver retweeted
IN FULL: US Bomber Force Withdrawal from RAF Fairford #IranWar
OK so now we know the full scale of this withdrawal, here's the details - 10 of the 12 B-1B "Lancer" bombers remaining at the base (including the aircraft that only arrived 6 days ago on a rotation) are heading back to the US right now (and the other 2 were meant to leave today too, and might still do so):
Cell 1:
B-1B "MAYAN11" 86-0140 #AE6C0B (DY 345BS) "Last Lancer"
B-1B "MAYAN12" 86-0107 #AE6BEF (WA 77WPS) "Dragon Slayer"
B-1B "MAYAN13" 86-0112 #AE6BF4 (DY) "The Black Widow"
Cell 2:
B-1B "MAYAN21" 86-0138 #AE6C09 (EL) "Seek and Destroy"
B-1B "MAYAN22" 86-0103 #AE6BEC (DY) "The Reluctant Dragon"
B-1B "MAYAN23" 86-0124 #AE6BFE (DY) "Oh! Hardluck II"
Cell 3:
B-1B "MAYAN31" 86-0120 #AE6BFA (EL) "Whiskey Pete"
B-1B "MAYAN32" 85-0069 #AE6BD0 (EL) "Avenger"
Cell 4A:
B-1B "MAYAN41" 86-0111 #AE6BF3 (EL) "Let's Roll"
B-1B "MAYAN42" 85-0060 #AE6BD1 (EL) "Doolittle Raiders"
Cell 4B (Possibly broken):
B-1B "MAYAN43" 86-0108 #AE6BF0 (EL) "Alien with an Attitude"
B-1B "MAYAN44" 86-0134 #AE6C05 (EL) "Thunderbird"
Supporting Tankers (Unclear if all have actually flown):
KC-135R "LAGER52" 61-0315 #AE0237 (EGUN)
KC-135T "LAGER53" 58-0095 #AE04FD (EGUN)
KC-135R "LAGER54" 63-8878 #AE05B1 (EGUN)
KC-135R "LAGER55" 60-0353 #AE062B (EGUN)
KC-46A "BLUE30" 11-46058 #AE5FA5 (LPLA)
KC-46A "BLUE31" 21-46094 #AE63CA (LPLA)
KC-46A "BLUE40" 19-46065 #AE5FAC (LPLA)
KC-46A "HIFI81" 17-46034 #AE5E0F (KPSM)
KC-46A "HIFI82" 18-46054 #AE5FA1 (KPSM)
And so that's it - the end of the Bomber Deployment to RAF Fairford! A total of 29 B-1B and B-52H airframes have been deployed since March 2026, with a total of 64 combat and over 190 training sorties tracked by the team @MATA_osint.
I'll publish more details on the overall bomber deployment in the coming days.
A huge thank you to all those who have supported the bomber tracking effort: @ArmchairAdml @AUX_OSINT @LatAmMilMVMTs @vcdgf555 @steffanwatkins @Andyyyyrrrr @Saint1Mil @jamjake01 @rocketron101 @LHA2709 @Azorean_Lion @TallGlenn85 @window_planes & @havoc_aviation for use of your photos!
cc: @UKDefJournal @TheAviationist @thewarzonewire @AFMonthly @ASForcesMag
xitter.cf/DefenceGeek/status/210…
UPDATE: Safe Travels "Lancers"! #IranWar
OK so this looks like a major draw-down! 6 B-1Bs have departed so far this morning, and 2-3 more are preparing to fly shortly!!
The fleet of bombers was at 12 aircraft last night, so this is a big deal!!
@MATA_osint
AtlasObserver retweeted
HORMUZ CRUDE OIL TRANSITS SUMMARY 26 Sep - 2 Oct | 7.8mbd 7d average, 64% of pre war level Hormuz-Yanbu-ADCOP CRUDE OIL flows, 5-6mbd deficit
KEY INSIGHTS:
▪️Saudi PG exodus cooled down, also visible in loadings which dropped from 6mbd last week to ~2.5mbd this week. It might be connected to the resumption of the Yanbu exports, so I would not drumbeat "the flows are down" yet: total Saudi exports were consistenly 6-7 mbd across PG+Yanbu since June, so I am very sceptical that combined they suddenly dropped to ~4 mbd.
▪️Additionally, there might be some timing smoothing as GoO crude only exits remain around ~10mbd as per @phileeppos - which is in line with my 14D avg.
▪️I generally think PG flows stabilized around ~9-10mbd, a number that is largely consistent between loadings and transits over 14D timeline and what I'd treat as more or less sustainable baseline. With functional Yanbu (lets say 3.5mbd) it implies that PG-Yanbu-Fujairah ecosystem can operate at ~85% of pre-war level sustainably (in spite of simmering pressures and tankers being hit regularly)
All details can be now found at pgcrudeflows.lvision.ae/
As usual: this is my take based on OSINT analytics. You don't have to like or agree with it. Everyone does their own homework.
AtlasObserver retweeted
This @NBCNews report has 8 US Marines injured on board a commercial ship that was attacked in the Strait.
Three years ago I posted this video about a Marine Corps operation that broke up a Marine Expeditionary Unit and placed components on board ships to provide defense against drones and small boats.
It appears that the @CENTCOM and @US5thFleet may have implemented this plan.
youtu.be/ixfmtP1xUuQ
Eight U.S. Marines were injured two weeks ago when an Iranian cruise missile attacked the ship they were operating on in the Strait of Hormuz, according to three U.S. officials. nbcnews.com/politics/nationa…
AtlasObserver retweeted
Damage in one of Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 East-West pipeline pumping stations hit yesterday spotted TODAY 👇 at
23.9576, 40.0547
More images at article linked on RT.
Before, Sentinel 2 09/07 satellite image, link on 🧵
After, today´s CNN Planet satellite image.
A key oil pipeline system in Saudi Arabia was struck by projectiles on Thursday, per two US officials.
Early analysis found that pump stations, which are located next to the pipeline itself, were hit, 1 of the US officials said.
It is not immediately clear who is responsible or if sections of the pipeline itself were damaged but 1 of the officials said it was struck by drones originating from Iraq.
Story w/ @KatieBoLillis, @kylieatwood & @ThomasBordeaux7
cnn.com/2026/09/11/politics/…
AtlasObserver retweeted
CENTCOM forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers, Sept. 8, after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted a U.S. Navy warship with ballistic missiles twice over the past two days. The U.S. warship successfully evaded the attempted Iranian attacks and continued to patrol regional waters. No American personnel were harmed.
Full statement here: centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-REL…
AtlasObserver retweeted
Location where IRGC was preparing rocket launchers to deploy sea mines in Strait of Hormuz, hit by US, spotted TODAY at
26.8435, 56.3674
Larak Island strikes were during late night hours of Sunday, August 30, 2026. 1st strike against Iran in over a month
AtlasObserver retweeted
UPDATE: Coronet East 110 Continues towards CENTCOM #IranWar
It appears the jets are on the move once again as 2 cells, with initial tanker support from Lajes:
Cell 1:
KC-46A "GOLD12" 22-46101 #AF4EE7
KC-46A "GOLD13" 21-46086 #AE63C2
F-16C "TABOR11" 88-0257 #AE0257
F-16C "TABOR12" 89-2051 #AE26FD
F-16C "TABOR13" 89-2082 #AE49F8
F-16C "TABOR14" 89-2109 #AE07D1
F-16C "TABOR15" 89-2114 ?
F-16C "TABOR16" 89-2128 #AE49FB
Cell 2:
KC-46A "GOLD25" 19-46109 #AF4F4D
KC-46A "GOLD26" 20-46077 #AE63B9
F-16C "TABOR21" 89-2151 #A7DEC2
F-16C "TABOR22" 90-0700 #AE01B1
F-16C "TABOR23" 90-0702 #AE49FA
F-16C "TABOR24" 90-0704 #AE49F6
F-16C "TABOR25" 89-2132 #AE019D
F-16C "TABOR26" 89-2112 ?
@MATA_osint @ArmchairAdml @AUX_OSINT @Azorean_Lion
UPDATE: Coronet East 110 Continues towards CENTCOM #IranWar
12x F-16C "Fighting Falcon" jets from 180th FW (OH) are departing Lajes Airport (LPLA) now heading onwards to CENTCOM, initially supported by at least 3 tankers from Lajes itself.
@MATA_osint
AtlasObserver retweeted
What is a SecDef support flight doing in Moscow, you ask?
Yeah, we've got no idea right now...
@KToropin @EJ_Burrows @geoallison
#USAF United States Air Force
Boeing C-17 Globemaster III 1x
#AE20C2 07-7181 - REACH 4555
REACH 4555 departed Riga early this morning… for Vnukovo International Airport near Moscow, Russia.
@MATA_osint
AtlasObserver retweeted
Big ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT spotted after "vessel was struck by an unknown projectile 18 nautical miles east of Oman's Khasab, causing a fire that was extinguished", despite what ADNOC master reported to UKMTO @phildstewart.
200 km2 oil spill on the 8th.
Even TODAY oil slicks 👇
(Reuters) - A vessel was struck by an unknown projectile 18 nautical miles east of Oman's Khasab, causing a fire that was extinguished, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on Saturday.
UKMTO said the vessel and crew were reported safe with no reported environmental impact from the incident.
AtlasObserver retweeted
US ORBAT - Fast-Jets - 10/AUG/2026 #IranWar
So as promised, here's the slightly more detailed US Orders of Battle for fast-jets in CENTCOM available in case of further conflict with Iran. Due to the fact my list of airframes is over 250, I am not going to list individual airframes here, but give a summary of the deployments below. Also to be noted, these numbers include the as-yet unidentified 2x F-15E and 1x A-10C lost in March/April (so obviously they're destroyed but we don't know which unit):
F-15E "Strike Eagle" (64 - 2 shot down unidentified)
Coronet East 007 - 4th FW (SJ) - 12 jets (January 2026)
Coronet East 044 - 366th FW (MO) - 12 jets (March 2026)
Coronet East 045 - 4th FW (SJ) - 12 jets (March 2026)
Unknown Coronet - 494th FS (LN) - 9 jets remain (Deployed January 2026, 1 shot down April 2026)
Unknown Coronet - 494th FS (LN) - 6 jets remain (Deployed February 2026, 1 shot down March 2026, 1 replacement sent April 2026)
Unknown Coronet - 494th FS (LN) - 12 jets (July 2026)
Note: Additional jets from RAF Lakenheath can be deployed forward to CENTCOM if required, and some have been deployed previously but are not at present, so are not included in the total.
F-35A "Lightning II" (55)
Coronet East 035 - 158th FW (VT) - 12 jets (February 2026)
Coronet East 046 - 34th FS (HL) - 9 jets remain (March 2026)
Coronet East 047 - 421st FS (HL) - 11 jets remain (March 2026)
Coronet East 099 - 495th FS (LN) - 15 jets (July 2026)
Unknown Coronet - Assorted Swaps (HL, LN) - 8 jets (February, March, April and July 2026)
Note: Additional jets from RAF Lakenheath can be deployed forward to CENTCOM if required, and some have been deployed previously but are not at present, so are not included in the total.
A-10C "Thunderbolt II" (30 - 1 shot down unidentified)
Coronet East 032 - 107th FS (MI) - 12 jets (April 2026)
Coronet East 062 - 124th FW (ID) - 6 jets (April 2026)
Coronet East 066 - 74th FS (FT) - 2 jets (April 2026)
Coronet East 068 - 23rd Wing (FT) - 10 jets (July 2026)
F-16C/CM "Fighting Falcon" (61)
Coronet East 030 - 169th FS (SC) - 12 jets (February 2026)
Coronet East 048 - 20th FW (SW) - 7 jets (March 2026)
Coronet East 050 - 20th FW (SW), 35th FW (WW) - 6 jets (April 2026)
Coronet East 097 - 52nd FW (SP) - 12 jets (July 2026)
Coronet East 100 - 31st FW (AV) - 12 jets (July 2026)
Coronet West 491 - 35th FW (WW) - 12 jets (March 2026)
Note: 11 Additional CE048/CE050 jets remain at Spangdahlem Airbase (ETAD) but have not deployed forward to CENTCOM at this stage, so are not included in this total. There are also further jets at both Spangdahlem and Aviano which have previously deployed and might do so again, but they are not listed here.
EA-18G "Growler" (6)
Unknown Coronet - VAQ-135 (NL) - 6 jets (March 2026)
Note: 6 Additional jets from VAQ-138 (NL) remain at Lajes Airport since June 2026 and have not deployed forward to CENTCOM at this stage, so are not included in the total.
F/A-18C/D "Hornet" (12 = 8x C, 4x D)
Coronet East 052 - VMFA-312 (DR) - 12 jets (April 2026)
F-35C "Lightning II" (10)
Coronet East 053 - VMFA-311 (WL) - 10 jets (March 2026)
TOTAL: 237 (includes 3 unidentified losses)
Identified Air Losses:
F-15E "DUDE44" 00-3000 (LN) from 494th FS (03/04/2026 over Iran)
F-15E "?" 91-0327 (LN) from 494th FS (03/03/2026 over Kuwait)
© @DefenceGeek & Military Air Tracking Alliance (@MATA_osint) 2026. Unauthorised copying, modification or recreation is prohibited.
@ArmchairAdml @vcdgf555 @AUX_OSINT
AtlasObserver retweeted
UPDATED: US Aircraft Casualties as of 07/08/2026
--- #OperationEpicFury / #ProjectFreedom / #IranWar ---
A minor update to my previous post of US air losses to reflect new video/photo evidence today of some of the losses (including recent confirmations of airframe identities). The following updates have been added to the graphic:
- F-15E "DUDE44" shot down over Iran confirmed as RAF Lakenheath-based (LN) F-15E 00-0300 #AE178B
- MQ-1C confirmed shot down with registration 16-02172 has been added
- KC-135R suspected destroyed at Prince Sultan Airbase in the same incident as the E-3G believed to be 59-1461 #AE0626
- KC-135R 63-8028 #AE05AB confirmed as one of the previously unidentified damaged aircraft
Also of note:
- C-130H 91-1653 attacked by a protester at Shannon Airport has not been tracked flying since
- All 5 of the unidentified tankers CENTCOM confirmed had been damaged appear to have only been minor and have been repaired & returned to flight - some of these we think we have ID'd but unable to confirm for certain
- @vcdgf555 is getting closer to identifying the 2x MC-130J destroyed in the CSAR mission
I will post the link to the previous edition of this chart in the replies below.
@MATA_osint @prestonstew_ @ArmchairAdml @TheIntelFrog @steffanwatkins @vcdgf555
AtlasObserver retweeted
GASLOG SHANGHAI was hit yesterday at 23:30 transiting Hormuz. Another Liberian-flagged and westbound tanker narrowly missed the hit at 22:06 hrs on 31 July.
So, both legs of the US convoy were attacked.
seatrade-maritime.com/tanker…
AtlasObserver retweeted
HORMUZ | Jul 25-31 crude transit highlights
1️⃣This week VISIBLE inbound transits declined to ~1.6mb avg, HOWEVER it is likely due to total darkness of US convoys that are still ongoing (I estimate ~3mbd extra)
2⃣ With Yanbu flows declined from 4.1mbd to 3.3mbd, this week is at 54% of pre-war Hormuz-YANBU-ADCOP exports.
3⃣ Visible INBOUND traffic is better than last week. Visible OUTBOUND traffic tanked, notably with ZERO transits from UAE and only one panamax from KSA. ZERO visible inbound traffic 3 days this week (28-30 Jul). ~3mbd dark transits are likely ~2mbd UAE and ~1mbd KSA, ~10 VLCCs missing from the count.
4⃣ 79 known tankers in the PG, 114M bbls capacity, 24% laden; 56% pinged today (largely unchanged from the last week)
Vessel level details in the comments.
