$ASTS: 🚨 CLEAR STREET REITERATES $115 PRICE TARGET AND BUY RATING Summary AST faces launch constraints today, and the market is watching every slip closely. AST currently depends on Falcon 9, a rocket owned by competitor SpaceX (SPCX, Buy, $217 PT). That pressure could ease if other rockets return to service, particularly New Glenn, which carries up to eight BlueBirds per flight versus three on Falcon 9. Our model continues to see AST reaching commercial broadband service by mid-2027E. On the flip side, we think the market is underappreciating SpaceX's own launch risk. Its next-generation V2 phone satellites are how it hits its timeline, and they depend on Starship, which remains unproven. Flight 15 has already slipped from October 19 to November 8 at the earliest, and reaching service in early 2028E would require roughly 24 Starship flights in six months. Both companies are in this race and both carry launch risk. We think AST remains positioned about six months ahead of SPCX. Key Points SpaceX's phone leap is parked behind Starship, and the math is demanding. The real threat to AST is SpaceX's FCC-approved V2 constellation, which SpaceX says Starship will launch. We don't see the larger V2s flying in volume on Falcon 9. SpaceX's stated goal is initial global coverage of about 1,200 satellites within six months of starting launches in mid-2027, at roughly 50 per Starship. By our math, that is about 24 Starship flights in six months, roughly one a week, from a rocket with no regular cadence: Flight 15 has already slipped from October 19 to November 8 at the earliest. Service lands in early 2028 at best. New Glenn's December return is the pivotal event for AST. It has been grounded since the May 28 pad explosion. A clean return in December would reopen AST's high-capacity rocket, but we expect it to take until mid-2027 to turn into satellites on orbit. One flight carries up to eight BlueBirds, almost three Falcon 9 flights' worth. Vulcan helps indirectly by pulling Amazon and Space Force demand off Falcon 9. AST keeps winning where the contracts are signed. Japan's ministry initially selected the AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)-Rakuten Group (TSE: 4755, NC) venture for its ~$1B J-LEO program over a KDDI (TSE: 9433, NC)-SpaceX bid, and a U.S.-Japan joint statement then named the partnership. What would change our mind. A New Glenn return that slips, or Starship reaching a regular cadence well ahead of SpaceX's mid-2027 plan. Maintain $115 PT, Buy Rating: We maintain our Buy rating and $115 price target, implying 20x 2029E EBITDA of $2.0B which translates to ~$12x our revenue. ASTS sits on a fortified capital base with $3.7B in pro forma cash and restricted cash (inclusive of the July $1.15B convertible note issuance). Investment Thesis The AST-versus-SpaceX race is the market's favorite debate, and both sides carry launch risk. AST's is microanalyzed, with every BlueBird slip priced in real time. SpaceX's (SPCX, Buy, $217 PT) is underappreciated: its next-gen phone satellites depend on a Starship that has yet to prove a regular cadence, and its EchoStar spectrum doesn't arrive until around late 2027. Meanwhile, ASTS is becoming the "orbital tower," a wholesale, neutral-host provider for 60+ global MNOs rather than a retail competitor. Q2 confirmed the pivot from customer acquisition to system integration, with nearly 50 gateways in various stages of completion, installation, and planning, leaving launch cadence as the one bottleneck. Management is also de-risking the commercial timeline by stacking high-margin government and defense revenue (Radar/AI Edge) ahead of full D2D service, and the initial J-LEO selection in Japan is a blueprint for future sovereign wins. Valuation: We maintain our Buy rating and $115 PT. Shares trade at 26x our 2028E EBITDA and 11x our 2029E EBITDA, an attractive entry for an emerging wholesale infrastructure giant. Catalyst and Risks to Watch The next few weeks look mostly constructive for ASTS. The clearest positive is the FCC's October 29 vote on satellite spectrum leasing rules, which supports AST's carrier-partnership model. A firm launch date for BlueBirds 14–16 would also help settle the launch-pace debate. The negatives sit mainly on the SpaceX side. The October 24 SpaceX share unlock could pressure ASTS by association, and the FCC's October 29 vote on the 25 MHz auction gives SpaceX a path to build a network next to spectrum AST already uses. Two undated items could land at any time and cut both ways. A T-Mobile partnership decision in AST's favor would be the biggest upside surprise, while a SpaceX/Grain FCC filing seeking fast approval of the 800 MHz deal would be a sentiment negative.

$ASTS: 🚨Want another sign T-Mobile will be working with AST SpaceMobile? AST’s biggest advocate at AT&T just joined T-Mobile 🤯 T-Mobile Appoints Chris Sambar Chief Enterprise Officer and Evolves Leadership Team to Advance its Next Era of Strategic Growth and Innovation businesswire.com/news/home/2…

$ASTS: 🚨SATELLITE CONNECT EUROPE FILES FOR 344 SATELLITE CONSTELLATION THROUGH GERMANY AT THE ITU ON 9/24 Vodafone and AST’s European JV filed the D-BLUEBIRD constellation through Germany at the ITU: 344 satellites across six orbital shells, covering Europe’s 2 GHz MSS spectrum as well as 700–900 MHz and 2.5 GHz terrestrial mobile bands. Sovereignty. Satellite Connect Europe now has a concrete, Germany-sponsored regulatory architecture designed to work with European MNO spectrum, compete for dedicated 2 GHz MSS spectrum and support a network built, controlled and operated in Europe. ITU register reference D2026-84958, network name D-BLUEBIRD itu.int/ITU-R/space/asreceiv…

$ASTS: I'm going to bake a cake Ingredients ✅Implied volatility near ATL ✅Short interest @ ATH ✅Sentiment near ATL ✅BB11 deployment ✅Batch 3 shipment + launch ✅Batch 4 shipment + launch ✅Golden Dome disclosure ✅Grain 800MHz selection ✅J-LEO JV formalized ✅US Telco JV inked w/ AST ✅T-Mobile/Deutsche Telekom DA ✅Blue Origin back on the menu Result = NEW ALL TIME HIGHS