#Watches - Index price of 30 luxury watches.
After a strong continuous advances in 2020, 2021 🥵
It shows some signs of weaknesses by breaking down after a consolidation.
🥶
We're clearly seeing the formation of a S1 following a clearly identified S4. #stages
Now all that's left is the markup to begin to permanently reduce supply and trigger scarcity through demand from fomo and retail.
xitter.cf/Beetcoin/status/197337…
And there we go, after the accumulation/bottom stage (S1) comes... the bull market (S2).
Documented here is a full cycle spanning four years. There's nothing to worry about regarding the market or the 'news', just look at price behavior.
#stages
#Watches - A year ago, we spot the bottom phase S1,
We can safely say now, that the bear market is over and is preparing for a bull market.
I documented a full cycle with you : check where it started 👉 xitter.cf/Beetcoin/status/151492…
#Trading - IWM/SPX 🚨
The stock market is probably about to have its "altcoin szn" era, we haven't see for 20 years (before the GFC).
#Space #AGI
xitter.cf/Beetcoin/status/194372…
Stock index - My thesis on why the sp500 is due for a #supercycle shift contrary to the current disbelief in valuation (cape)
#Trading - IWM/SPX, 18 months high.
The writing on the wall, and the most likely path, is this:
The ratio will grind higher, with some painful pullbacks along the way, before ultimately ending in a blow-off top as retail investors pile late again into "tech stocks" (robotics, spaces, ai, biogenetics, whatever new industry in the next few years).
Just as they did at the end of the last bull market (2007), check below:
PSA (and NFA):
MVRV Z-Score is flashing deep value. This is historically a buying zone for BTC.
And you're about to sell yours to cover this month's expenses.
Borrow against it (like Nexo etc.)? One liquidation wick and it's gone.
There's a smarter way to handle this. ↓
This way your BTC generates yield without leaving qualified institutional custodies.
For those who care:
0% management fee
20% perf (profits only, quarterly HWM)
30-day liquidity (!)
Luxembourg fund, segrated custody
97% positive months. Max drawdown ~0.2%. Sharpe above 3.
Beetcoin.agi 🛰️ retweeted
It's time to start tracking this.
wtfhappened2025.com/
open source. we'll maintain the first draft of this special time in history.
It is hard to communicate how much programming has changed due to AI in the last 2 months: not gradually and over time in the "progress as usual" way, but specifically this last December. There are a number of asterisks but imo coding agents basically didn’t work before December and basically work since - the models have significantly higher quality, long-term coherence and tenacity and they can power through large and long tasks, well past enough that it is extremely disruptive to the default programming workflow.
Just to give an example, over the weekend I was building a local video analysis dashboard for the cameras of my home so I wrote: “Here is the local IP and username/password of my DGX Spark. Log in, set up ssh keys, set up vLLM, download and bench Qwen3-VL, set up a server endpoint to inference videos, a basic web ui dashboard, test everything, set it up with systemd, record memory notes for yourself and write up a markdown report for me”. The agent went off for ~30 minutes, ran into multiple issues, researched solutions online, resolved them one by one, wrote the code, tested it, debugged it, set up the services, and came back with the report and it was just done. I didn’t touch anything. All of this could easily have been a weekend project just 3 months ago but today it’s something you kick off and forget about for 30 minutes.
As a result, programming is becoming unrecognizable. You’re not typing computer code into an editor like the way things were since computers were invented, that era is over. You're spinning up AI agents, giving them tasks *in English* and managing and reviewing their work in parallel. The biggest prize is in figuring out how you can keep ascending the layers of abstraction to set up long-running orchestrator Claws with all of the right tools, memory and instructions that productively manage multiple parallel Code instances for you. The leverage achievable via top tier "agentic engineering" feels very high right now.
It’s not perfect, it needs high-level direction, judgement, taste, oversight, iteration and hints and ideas. It works a lot better in some scenarios than others (e.g. especially for tasks that are well-specified and where you can verify/test functionality). The key is to build intuition to decompose the task just right to hand off the parts that work and help out around the edges. But imo, this is nowhere near "business as usual" time in software.
#Trading - Why it's not easy, #124th take
1 month ago (26/11) the market was in "Extreme Fear"
Yesterday (24/12) it delivered a SantATH close (3rd time in modern history).
[Announcement]: Most BTC sits at 0% yield. Want to fix that? Your options:
A/ Spend 6 months screening 200+ asset managers, pick one, get locked 24 months
B/ Skip DD and YOLO into first pitch you see
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Track record: ~12% avg annual (composite 2020-2024), max DD -0.2%, 97% months positive. Historical ≠ guaranteed.
Structure: Luxembourg SCSp, 0% mgmt fee, 20% perf (profits only, quarterly).
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