BetterIRR (@BetterIRR) header
BetterIRR (@BetterIRR) profile picture

BetterIRR

@BetterIRR

Stonks: Prefer low starting multiple + margin expansion + robust topline

Joined April 2020
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"Supply may be tight. Large outsourcing facilities (503B) are excluded, and at least one compounding pharmacy owner told NPR he doesn’t think small 503A pharmacies alone can meet demand." Guess who has a 503A? $NURS.V
Jesse Morse, M.D. (@DrJesseMorse) profile pictureJesse Morse, M.D.
@DrJesseMorse10h
Replying to @DrJesseMorse
2/ The full breakdown of all six, plus a section for clinicians: drjessemorse.substack.com/p/… The mechanism is an HHS "enforcement discretion" policy filed Oct 28. It is not an approval.
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Here come the peptides $NURS.V <7x 2027 earnings (which were probably already too low) and doesn't include any peptides revenues which will be "huge" and at a higher gross margin.
Hims House (@himshouse) profile pictureHims House
@himshouse4h
🚨 BREAKING: SUPERPOWER PEPTIDES ARE LIVE Interesting to see the prices as a preview for what's coming across the industry: BPC-157: $149/mo TB-500: $149/mo MOTS-c: $199/mo
Image from Hims House (@himshouse)
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With FDA now officially allowing a path for peptides, $NURS.V / $VST.CN should be up a lot more.
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BetterIRR retweeted
Ed Zitron (@edzitron) profile picture
Ed Zitron
@edzitronOct 28
Free newsletter: Anthropic’s S-1 uses an anomalous quarter to con investors into becoming its exit liquidity, and explicitly states that its costs will grow aggressively as margins decline. Its $430bn in non-cancellable contracts are yet to start hitting. wheresyoured.at/exit-liquidi…
Exit Liquidity

Exit Liquidity

I’m taking a week off of premium as I’ve had a family situation that has absorbed a lot of my time this week, but I’ll be back with a barnburner next Friday (11/6).  In the interim, I’m running a...

wheresyoured.at
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Lot of value in these @PlanetMicroCap events, already pitched an interesting (potential) multibagger during the networking session.
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BetterIRR retweeted
dalibali (@dalibali2) profile picture
dalibali
@dalibali2Oct 26
Now I understand the fund performance
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Anthropic's S1 looks fine on the surface. Bear's argument was never that they couldn't show an OK quarter, rather the core arguments are: 1) existing ARR is inflated via a VC funding bubble 2) open source is an existential threat 3) if they misjudge demand their mandatory 1/2
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spending commitments will bankrupt them.
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Even if you pay with a convertable note, it would still be recorded as an expense no? Unless there is some funky SPV stuff.
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The AI boom is narrower than almost anyone admits. The top 10% of firms account for 99.5% of all model-serving spend, 99% of neocloud, and 95%+ of OpenAI and Anthropic billings. And 80.4% of the heaviest AI spenders run on venture capital, not their own revenue. This is a concentrated, circular buildout. A handful of companies are the entire trade.
Image from Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter)
Image from Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter)
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Is the AI boom a bubble outside Tech? 📉 Rev per worker: S&P 493 flat 📉 Profit margins: S&P 493 flat 📉 Productivity boost: None Non-tech sees AI token spend as a cost center, not growth. The macro AI story will be decided in the S&P 493, not the Mag 7. T at Apollo
Image from Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi)
Image from Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi)
Image from Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi)
Image from Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi)
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This is a worse data set than ramp but tells the same story. All the AI growth (declerating as it is) is being driven by the top 1% VC funded companies. Ex AI lab VC funding is already 0.5T. This bubble only goes on if ever larger VC cheques are written.
Matt Harney (@SaaSletter) profile pictureMatt Harney
@SaaSletterOct 23
👀Yipit coverage of Anthropic below
Image from Matt Harney (@SaaSletter)
Image from Matt Harney (@SaaSletter)
Image from Matt Harney (@SaaSletter)
Image from Matt Harney (@SaaSletter)
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(And 500B is a lot already.) Either $NVDA (or someone?) starts parabolically funding VC firms or this is all over.
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Modeling $REAX is an incredibly frustrating experience. That said I feel pretty good that we are close to 14x synergized pre-tax earnings (48M). Not the worst price to pay for a secular winner in REAL at the trough of the cycle.
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more replies
If you think they can get there in say 5 years you're looking at a tripling of pre-tax income in 5 years. On top of that, you likely have a housing recovery sometime within those 5 years further juicing things. The base biz will also be growing, REAL had impressive share gains.
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Anyone have a strong view on the name? Think it's a good setup.
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Your hyperscalers are dead money for 2 to 3 years: -> Over earning across the board (implemented price hikes on non AI workloads via compute + memory constraints) -> Neocloud BKs will lead to distressed GPU pricing -> Equity investors will start paying attention to massive 1/x
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Off balance sheet lease + obligations -> hypers will either have to keep funding the labs funding w/ no hope of return or do it themselves in house to not loose edge (perma a worse business than pre-ai) -> Over capacity comes with structurally higher cost base need absorb
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