
Managing Partner @asymmetric_vc Co-Founder / Chairman @GoCatalant Exec Fellow @HarvardHBS š¶ dad Pats/Mets diehard Started @GoldmanSachs @BainCapital @Princeton
Joined April 2009
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Founders: when things get really tough, remember that the fact that others gave up at this point is why you have an opportunity šŖ
Rob Biederman retweeted
One of these does >$600m in EBITDA annually and holds dominant market share
The other is a neocloud
Rob Biederman retweeted
Napkin math on how $1 of AI spend becomes $100 of asset value:
A law firm spends $100M on Harvey
ā”ļø Harvey trades at ~40x ARR (last round was $16B on ~$400M). That $100M of ARR marks Harvey up by $4B
ā”ļø Harvey spends most of that $100M on Anthropic inference. Gross margins at the app layer are rough. Call it $80M to the lab
ā”ļø Anthropic trades at ~15x revenue ($965B on a run rate heading toward $110B). That $80M marks Anthropic up by ~$1.2B
ā”ļø Anthropic backs every $1 of revenue with ~$5 of compute commitments ($500B+ of signed commits against ~$100B of run rate). So that $80M of revenue supports ~$400M of new compute POs
ā”ļø Nvidia books a big chunk of those POs at ~60% net margins and ~30x earnings. Call it $300M of orders ā $180M of earnings ā $5.5B of market cap
Add it up: $4B + $1.2B + $5.5B = $10B of asset appreciation from a $100M contract.
And that's before the clouds take their markup. Before the datacenter REITs. Before the power companies. Before CoreWeave marks up the same GPUs again.
$1 in and $100 and of asset price appreciation. This is one of the greatest flywheels in capitalism
H/t to a friend in our group chat
Growth is decelerating at the top, while the cost of capital funding the buildout is rising at the bottom.
Anthropic missed (bad). $18B of data center debt is trading at 89. CleanSpark paid up to fund Meta. Banks are getting selective. Yields are rising.
Second derivative is negative.
This is what the cracks looked like in 99/00 and 06/07 and 20/21 suggesting we were at or close to the top.
Strap in.
Rob Biederman retweeted
$1B on 10B pre-revenue round math:
10-yr hold, 5% employee dilution a year + 50% from funding.
GP retains ~30% of initial ownership.
To make 10x on the check, the company is worth ~$334B, not $100B.
10x gross becomes ~6x net to the LP.
So, inside 10 years, you are building Databricks + Ramp, OpenAI or Anthropic.
Rob Biederman retweeted
We're incredibly excited to announce that Counsel is joining the CMS Innovation Center's ACCESS Model, bringing AI-native chronic care to Medicare beneficiaries at no out-of-pocket cost. š©ŗ
Starting in early 2027, eligible Medicare beneficiaries with hypertension, obesity, hyperlipidemia, or prediabetes will have access to Counsel's modern, connected care experience.
Rob Biederman retweeted
Tomorrow, we invite visitors to honor the 25th anniversary of 9/11 with a day of remembrance in the park.
The chair tribute opens at 8am and closes at 4pm. There will be limited seating and activities as we observe the anniversary.
More info: bryantpark.org/calendar/evenā¦
Rob Biederman retweeted
Worth the read every year. #neverforget
Todd: Hello⦠Operatorā¦listen to meā¦I canāt speak very loud. ā This is an emergency. Iām a passenger on a United flight to San Francisco.. We have a situation hereā¦.Our plane has been hijackedā¦..can you understand me?
Lisa: (exhaling a deep breath to herself) I understand⦠Can the hijackers see you talking on the phone?
Todd: No
Lisa: Can you tell me how many hijackers are on the plane?
Todd: There are three that we know of.
Lisa: Can you see any weapons? What kind of weapons do they have?
Todd: Yesā¦. they donāt have gunsā¦.they have knives ā they took over the plane with knives.
Lisa: Do you meanā¦like steak knives?
Todd: No, these are razor knivesā¦like box cutters.
Lisa: Can you tell what country these people are from?
Todd: Noā¦..I donāt know. They sound like theyāre from the mid-east.
Lisa: Have they said what they want?
Todd: Someone announced from the cockpit that there was a bomb on board. He said he was the captain and to stay in our seats and stay quiet.
He said that they were meeting these menās demands and returning to the airport⦠It was very broken English, and⦠Iām telling youā¦it sounded fake!
Lisa: Ok sir, please give me your name.
Todd: My name is Todd Beamer.
Lisa: Ok Toddā¦.my name is Lisaā¦Do you know your flight number? If you canāt remember, itās on your ticket.
Todd: Itās United Flight 93.
Lisa: Now Todd, can you try to tell me exactly what happened?
Todd: Two of the hijackers were sitting in first class near the cockpit. A third one was sitting near the back of the coach section. The two up. front got into the cockpit somehow; there was shouting. The third hijacker said he had a bomb. It looks like a bomb. Heās got it tied to his waist with a red belt of some kind.
Lisa: So is the door to the cockpit open?
Todd: No, the hijackers shut it behind them.
Lisa: Has anyone been injured?
Todd: Yes, ..theyā¦they killed one passenger sitting in first class. Thereās been lots of shouting. We donāt know if the pilots are dead or alive. A flight attendant told me that the pilot and copilot had been forced from the cockpit and may have been wounded.
Lisa: Where is the 3rd hijacker now Todd?
Todd: Heās near the back of the plane. They forced most of the passengers into first class. There are fourteen of us here in the back. Five are flight attendants. He hasnāt noticed that I slipped into this pantry to get the phone. The guy with the bomb ordered us to sit on the floor in the rear of the planeā¦ā¦ā¦.oh Jesus.. Help!
Lisa: Toddā¦.are you ok? Tell me whatās happening!
Todd: Helloā¦..Weāre going downā¦.I think weāre going to crashā¦ā¦Wait ā wait a minute. No, weāre leveling offā¦.weāre ok. I think we may be turning aroundā¦..Thatās it ā we changed directions. Do you hear meā¦.weāre flying east again.
Lisa: Ok Toddā¦. Whatās going on with the other passengers?
Todd: Everyone is⦠really scared. A few passengers with cell phones have made calls to relatives. A guy, Jeremy, was talking to his wife just before the hijacking started. She told him that hijackers had crashed two planes into the World Trade Centerā¦ā¦Lisa is that true??
Lisa: Toddā¦..I have to tell you the truthā¦..itās very bad. The World Trade Center is gone. Both of the towers have been destroyed.
Todd: Oh God āhelp us!
Lisa: A third plane was taken over by terrorists. It crashed into the Pentagon in Washington DC. Our country is under attackā¦.and Iām afraid that your plane may be part of their plan.
Todd: Oh dear God. Dear Godā¦ā¦.Lisa, will you do something for me?
Lisa: Iāll tryā¦.if I canā¦.Yes.
Todd: I want you to call my wife and my kids for me and tell them whatās happened. Promise me youāll call..
Lisa: I promise ā Iāll call.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
No verbatim transcript of Todd Beamer's call with Lisa Jefferson exists, as the conversation was not recorded and the text includes fabricated dialogue.
snopes.com/fact-check/traā¦
usatoday.com/story/news/facā¦
nps.gov/flni/learn/hisā¦
catalog.archives.gov/id/2610189
Rob Biederman retweeted
Narrative violation: According to the Economist, AI has created 1 million new jobs in the U.S.
Our analysis suggests that AI has so far created around 1m new jobs in America. We explain how the technology has created a hiring boom economist.com/finance-and-ecā¦
Rob Biederman retweeted
Yesterday, West Virginia put out a report on how data centers are affecting the state. How?
They're making it rich.
Data centers are allowing the state to cut income taxes, fund schools, rebuild sewers and water treatment facilities, curb electrical costs, and generate jobs!
Rob Biederman retweeted
Regret the tone of my post on data centers yesterday.
What I should have said:
There were reasonable concerns about data centers 18ish months ago: water, taxes, jobs, electricity prices, the environment and what they would do to small towns. Well-structured data center projects have largely addressed these concerns today and we should be celebrating this.
On balance, data centers are awesome for America in every way.
On water: U.S. data centers use a fraction of what golf courses use. A lot of the numbers from 18 months ago were off by over 1000x. Newer data centers use closed-loop systems or recycled water. Should be required by every town approving a data center project.
On taxes: looking only at sales-tax exemptions, as Ronan Farrow did, is the wrong way to evaluate this. Data centers pay significant property taxes. Loudoun County, which is the wealthiest county in America, now collects on the order of $1 billion a year from data centers. In Quincy, WA, data centers are more than half the property-tax roll. Over time, property taxes can go to zero while government spending increases in these towns.
On jobs: this has been unambiguously awesome for blue collar Americans. Demand for electricians, plumbers, welders, HVAC techs, and contractors has gone vertical, and it is not a one-time construction job. These buildings get upgraded and expanded over time. That is why the building trades are fighting for them, and why some unions are now treating opposition to data centers as a reason not to endorse politicians.
On power: the original fear was that households would pay for the incremental electricity demand in the form of higher prices. That is why the ratepayer-protection deals and the new large-load tariffs exist. The right structure is: the data center brings or pays for new generation and signs a contract long enough that existing customers are protected. Where that is happening, utilities are cutting or freezing residential rates and saying so on the record. Where it is not, people are right to object. Electricity prices are going down *today* in a number of large states because of data centers.
āØOn the environment: data centers overwhelming use natural gas today, which is the cleanest power source outside of nuclear, solar and wind. And the companies that are building the data centers are committed to carbon neutrality such that an equivalent amount of solar will likely be built. Maybe more importantly, the data centers need batteries to function effectively and these batteries can also sell energy back into the grid (which recently prevented blackouts in Texas). Over time, data centers will run on solar plus batteries.
On the towns: Poverty in Quincy, WA fell from 29% to 6%. Data center taxes paid for a new high school, a hospital, a library, police and fire stations. This is happening in many left for dead former mill and farm towns that had no other bidder for the land.
Data centers are actually reindustrializing parts of America and creating the kind of working-class jobs both parties have spent decades claiming to support. That should not be a partisan issue. Data centers can and should be awesome for America and they increasingly, overwhelmingly are. Supporting the outsourcing of data centers to China will likely age just as well as support for the outsourcing of high quality, blue collar manufacturing jobs to China has aged.
When the facts change, I change my mind. I hope that reasonable people who had good faith reasons to oppose data centers at least consider updating their beliefs given the change in the facts over the last 18 months. This really matters for America.
I will say I also think the idea of making data centers beautiful is a good one that has yet to be implemented. Data centers should be just as beautiful as Grand Central Station. We can learn a lot from the railroad buildout. Neoclassical revival ftw.
Might write up open-weight AI tomorrow as this is equally essential to America.
Rob Biederman retweeted
Data centers are awesome for America in every way.
Data centers helped resurrect Quincy, Washington.The poverty rate fell from 29.4% to 6.2%.Ā
Tech tax revenue funded a new high school, hospital, library, police and fire stations, while residentsā property tax rates decreased.
Build data centers in communities that want jobs, investment, and economic revival!
Rob Biederman retweeted
Finally found the login for the Carpool channel.
Weāre back!
Andddd⦠weāre announcing Fund 6.
Rob Biederman retweeted
Fascinating. Some data centers came to a struggling town in Washington state. Did it run out of water? Was the community destroyed?
Letās see. The townā¦built a new high school, hospital, library, sewage systems, and police & fire stations. Poverty fell from 29% to 6%.
Oh.
Rob Biederman retweeted
This is spot on. If youāre a firm that can lead $8-12M real Series A rounds, you can clean it up right now. Unfortunately, there arenāt many out there built for that or that want to do it.
The Series A market appears to be fundamentally broken. VCs and LPs are using all kinds of words to describe it ("untethered from reality* appears to be currently among the most common) but the conclusion is consistent. Series A investors (which are supposed to provide the first scaling capital after initial PoC/PMF) are no longer playing that role effectively. For the most part, they are choosing to do one of three other things:
1. Invest way AFTER abundant evidence of PMF. The whole "0 to $100M in 18 months" thing. This is a failure to take appropriate risk.
2. Invest way BEFORE any evidence of PMF but at valuations that don't account for risk. This is a failure to price risk.
3. Buy a ton of options at early stages, often overpaying but the incentive is the accumulation of options not pricing risk.
In all of these three modalities, Series A investors are opting out of doing what has historically been the essence of their function in the capital markets: determining when initial PoC/PMF has been achieved, pricing risk correctly, funding initial growth experiments and scaling, and actively helping a founding team refocus from "inception" to "growth."
For inception investors, the evaporation of a functional Series A ecosystem is a meaningful challenge.
Rob Biederman retweeted
Counties that build data centers are seeing new housing, higher home values, lower unemployment and more job growthā¦
Rob Biederman retweeted
A few years ago the market was paying $1m for jpeg apes. Donāt trust the market consensus. Better yet, ignore it
The Series A market appears to be fundamentally broken. VCs and LPs are using all kinds of words to describe it ("untethered from reality* appears to be currently among the most common) but the conclusion is consistent. Series A investors (which are supposed to provide the first scaling capital after initial PoC/PMF) are no longer playing that role effectively. For the most part, they are choosing to do one of three other things:
1. Invest way AFTER abundant evidence of PMF. The whole "0 to $100M in 18 months" thing. This is a failure to take appropriate risk.
2. Invest way BEFORE any evidence of PMF but at valuations that don't account for risk. This is a failure to price risk.
3. Buy a ton of options at early stages, often overpaying but the incentive is the accumulation of options not pricing risk.
In all of these three modalities, Series A investors are opting out of doing what has historically been the essence of their function in the capital markets: determining when initial PoC/PMF has been achieved, pricing risk correctly, funding initial growth experiments and scaling, and actively helping a founding team refocus from "inception" to "growth."
For inception investors, the evaporation of a functional Series A ecosystem is a meaningful challenge.
Rob Biederman retweeted
We're incredibly excited to announce Counsel Studio š©ŗ
A new deployment platform that brings AI-enabled, physician-supervised care directly into healthcare organizations' existing digital experiences.
Health plans, health systems, and consumer health companies can now seamlessly integrate and white-label Counselās AI-enabled care model within their own applications.
Rob Biederman retweeted
The trades can build anything... except the software they run on.
That changes today. We've raised $9.2M to build Dalton Mills.
Software has spent its whole history getting closer to the people who do the work.
First, the system of record. Software you stored your business in.
Then, the agentic era. Software that did the work for you.
Now, the bespoke era. Agentic software you build yourself, without code.
Each era closed the gap and this one closes it for good. Software can finally work around your business, instead of you bending your business to make it fit.
You ran on software made for everyone⦠never for you.
That's over.
Welcome to @DaltonMillsAI.
Let the builders build!
Rob Biederman retweeted
Weāre incredibly excited to announce that @ouraring is partnering with Counsel to bring AI-enabled primary care directly into the Oura App š©ŗ
Starting June 16, Oura members can:
- Ask medical AI health questions
- Receive personalized medical advice
- Connect with Counsel physicians within minutes
All without leaving the app.





























