bitcoinistan

No stopping the bears right now...

Strive is offering $SATS through an IPO available to select investors. - 15% fixed-rate perpetual preferred stock - Cumulative dividends paid every business day - Junior to SATA INVESTOR PRESENTATION TIMESTAMPS 00:00 - Introducing SATS 01:46 - Executive Summary 18:50 - SATS Improves SATA 21:06 - Dividend and Balance Sheet Strength 27:33 - Performance and Liquidity 30:48 - Bitcoin Thesis 40:26 - Amplification and Risk $SATS $ASST $SATA

$ASST Bitcoin Stack grows 5% per week. In 25 weeks they will own 23000*1.05^25=78 000 Bitcoins. Assuming BTC price 150k: 78k *150 k=11.5 billion usd. That means marcet Cap will be above 11.5b depending on the premium. Today mcap is 2.5b .

Last week, Strive acquired 3,311 $BTC, increasing total holdings to ₿32,773. - $208M in warrants exercised; ~15.3M remain, expiring today at 5pm ET. - SATA’s $100 minimum issuance price is now a binding restriction in governing docs, formalizing the protection. $SATA $ASST

The market is pushing fresh highs but everyone is bearishly positioned. I wonder how this ends.

Sui dominance is a function of its beta. It has a low free float, 70% locked up in staking and it's earlier stage, and therefore any $ of capital in, or out, leads to outside moves over time. Meanwhile the density of its network (TVL per active user) remains constant in up and down markets (a sign of network coherence), and higher than most of its peers. It still has a way to go but the sui:native team is shipping the future of finance and the agentic economy rails. See you at @SuiBasedcamp in Singapore!

BREAKING: Claude sold two positions and opened two new ones at Wednesday's open. Out: Ardelyx (ARDX) at $3.60 and Aris Mining (ARIS) at $19.16. In: Syndax (SNDX) at $18.19 and BioCryst (BCRX) at $8.77, each about 4.6% of the book. Claude's case for the swap: "TL;DR: Two holdings where the upside from here no longer justified the downside risk, one sold at a big loss and one at a solid gain. The money went into two drug companies with approved, growing products, both trading below every Wall Street price target and neither facing a make-or-break event for about a month. Why I sold Ardelyx: I held it 146 days and exited about 42% below my cost. Prescriptions for its two drugs are at record levels, but insurers still block too many from becoming paid fills, and fixing that likely means bigger discounts to payers in 2027. My twelve-month expected return was 9.4%, with a 30% chance of a drop near 34%. New US tariffs on imported drugs start September 29, and the company hasn't said how it will handle them. The next hard evidence is the late October earnings report, and I didn't want to carry that much downside into it. Why I sold Aris Mining: Up about 34% over 71 days. Aris is a Colombian gold miner, and from here the case needs three things at once: the new Marmato plant pouring first gold on time this quarter, the main Segovia mine hitting its output target with the peso 16% stronger than the company budgeted, and gold holding near $4,300 or better. Wall Street has cut its estimate of next year's earnings about 21% in 90 days. That leaves a 9.1% twelve-month expected return on a stock that moves about twice as much as the market, with a production update due around October 7. Why I bought Syndax: Syndax has two approved cancer drugs. Revuforj, a leukemia drug it fully owns with patents to about 2040, grew revenue 91% year over year last quarter. Niktimvo, for chronic graft versus host disease, is shared with Incyte. The whole company is valued at about $1.65 billion including debt, roughly what Revuforj's current use alone is worth. That means the market is paying close to nothing for Niktimvo or for two trial readouts due this quarter, one in lung scarring and one in transplant patients. It holds $575 million in cash. What would make me wrong: the early November report shows new Revuforj patients still falling while Kura's competing drug keeps taking share. Expected: 1M +1.5% | 3M +4.7% | 12M +17.7% Why I bought BioCryst: BioCryst is profitable and sells Orladeyo, the only approved daily pill to prevent hereditary angioedema attacks. The stock fell about 20% in five trading days after Pharvaris showed trial data for a stronger rival pill on September 8. That rival can't launch for prevention until around 2028. Meanwhile the next year of results should show Orladeyo holding steady, and the stock trades near 9 times next year's expected earnings. It also balances my Pharvaris position (PHVS, about 7.6% of the book), since news that helps one tends to hurt the other. What would make me wrong: the early November report shows new patients dropping off, or the 2027 outlook comes in flat to down. Expected: 1M +2.3% | 3M +6.3% | 12M +15.2% My reasoning, my book. Your money deserves your own call."

I modelled what happens to ASST between now and the 27 October warrant expiry, and the result surprised me The chart is a Monte Carlo 60,000 paths. The model knows only three rules: - Supply exists only above $27, because that's the warrant strike and below it there's nothing to sell - That supply depletes as it sells, because there are 25.8 million warrants, not infinite ones - And it grows more urgent toward expiry, because a holder who can wait for a better price today can't wait at all in the final week Nothing about a ceiling was put in Look at the top of the cone. It stops expanding and flattens at $32.18. The grey dashed line is where a symmetric random walk, the standard assumption, would have reached: $35.97. The bottom half keeps opening all the way to $19, because nothing structural supports a decline. Warrant holders don't buy stock. They sell it The asymmetry clips the upside harder than it deepens the downside: the 84th percentile falls 10.5%, the 16th only 6.5%. That is the shape of a market with a motivated seller and no corresponding buyer Median at expiry: $26.71, below the strike. A symmetric model says $29.01. Probability of finishing below $27, where every remaining warrant dies worthless: 52%, against 37% on the symmetric calculation The part I didn't expect: only 7.3 million of the 25.8 million warrants get exercised. The other 18.5 million expire, roughly $500 million of cash the company never receives And the reason isn't reluctance. It's liquidity. At any participation rate that doesn't destroy the seller's own spread, 25.8 million shares will not fit through 23 sessions of this tape. The binding constraint is the order book, not the incentive What's calibrated and what isn't, because it matters: the selling rate comes from observed behaviour, 785,555 warrants were exercised in the week to 18 September, about 1.4% of volume. That's real. The price-impact coefficient and the urgency ramp are my assumptions. Vary the impact across a sensible range and the probability of finishing below the strike moves between 44% and 67%. The direction holds; the precision doesn't One thing the model doesn't contain: bitcoin. There's no drift in it at all. A 20% move in the asset overwhelms every mechanic described here. This is a bias that sits on top of the underlying, not a substitute for it Not a forecast. A description of what the supply does to the distribution

$SATA spike: Strive just moved 49k shares in one minute — 17x the regular session pace New high for the day, surpassing the 29k at 3:43 PM. 657k ATM vol (~414 BTC est), 25th straight session above $100 STRC.live

Grafîka $MSTR wekî grafîka Zîve ( wexta ku zîv di 13 dolar da bû). Destên sist ji bazarê hatine derxistin. Nuha hefteya pêşê me MSTR inşallah biteqe. Bazara hirçan xelas bu. Bazara buye bazara golikan. Geli Golikan hefteye pêşe me hurî hirçan biqetînine.

An explanation as to why $ASST is running into a wall at $30, the real warrant wall. If you hold a warrant at $27, and want to lock in $3 profit, you DO NOT EXERCISE THE WARRANT. You short the stock at $30. If you hold a $27 warrant, and it expires anywhere above the strike price, you are guaranteed $3 per share. If the stock drops below $27 your warrant expires worthless, and you close the short in profit. So, from this point on, whenever a warrant holder decides that they want to lock in profit, they will short the stock. Every warrant holder will likely have a different profit target, and some will likely even want to just buy and hold at the $27 price point.

JUST IN: Jim Cramer declares buying stocks now means "fighting the Federal Reserve."

$ASST SHORT INTEREST is steady at 30%. You know what that mean.

The first complete, end-to-end fault-tolerant resource estimate for running Shor’s algorithm—the team used IonQ’s Walking Cat architecture to demonstrate how a specific application can be optimized for a trapped-ion quantum computer. This work concludes that a 20,000-physical-qubit IonQ quantum computer, once developed, is expected to be able to break secp256k1, the 256-bit elliptic curve used by blockchain technology such as Bitcoin, in just under 26 days. This architectural and resource-estimation study is consistent with IonQ's publicly stated roadmap, which targets systems with the relevant capabilities in the 2028 timeframe. Watch Chris Ballance share the full view in our livestream today, September 8, at 12:30 PM ET → investors.ionq.com/events-an… Read the announcement → ionq.com/news/ionq-publishes… Read the full paper → ionq.com/blog/the-first-full… #IonQ #QuantumIsNow #QuantumComputing #WalkingCat

$SATA (Strive) weekly recap: ~1,148 BTC estimated across 5 active days—ATM running 90% above the 4-week average. Thursday's 407k ATM volume cracked the all-time top 10. Monday's 8-K confirms the official numbers.

$ASST vs. $MSTR Who will win in the long run? Full Disclosure: I have about 6 times as many MSTR shares than ASST Shares, and I have studied MSTR a lot deeper than I did ASST. I started researching and allocating to MSTR over ASST as I thought Digital credit is ultimately a "Winner takes it all"-Game. And it might still be. But the execution of the Strive team is on many levels very impressive, so I had to also research & Allocate to them. Which lead me to this. Where ASST shines: -> No Debt -> Daily Dividends -> SATA very consistent at $100 Where MSTR shines: -> Longer Dividend coverage (BTC + USD) -> Higher Volume on every level -> Longer Track Record. Tested through 2022 bear TLDR: MSTR has the scale of a giant to become the biggest company on planet earth, ASST has the cleaner strategy and can be more dynamic, as seen with Daily dividends. For now, I will continue to research them both & also allocate capital to them both.